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Canadian Natural Resources: Canadian Natural's 2025 Earnings: A Year of Operational Excellence

Canadian Natural's financial performance in 2025 was impressive, with adjusted net earnings of $7.4 billion or $3.56 per share, and adjusted funds flow for the year of $15.5 billion or $7.39 per share. The company's actual EPS for the quarter came in at $0.816, beating analyst estimates of $0.633. Revenue growth is expected to continue, with analysts estimating a 4.0% increase in revenues for the next year. With a P/E Ratio of 19.26 and an EV/EBITDA of 8.29, the market seems to have priced in a certain level of growth, but the company's strong ROIC of 13.16% and ROE of 16.47% suggest that it is well-positioned to continue delivering value to shareholders.

CNQ.TO

CAD 63.51

2.49%

A-Score: 7.2/10

Publication date: March 5, 2026

Author: Analystock.ai

📋 Highlights
  • Record Production: Achieved 1,571,000 BOEs/day in 2025, a 15% YoY increase, with 1,146,000 barrels/day in liquids production (+14% YoY).
  • Reserve Replacement: Replaced 218% of 2025 production on a total proved basis, adding 1.2 billion BOEs, with 15.9 billion BOE total proved reserves (+4% YoY).
  • Financial Performance: Reported adjusted net earnings of $7.4B and adjusted funds flow of $15.5B, returning $9B to shareholders via dividends ($4.9B) and buybacks ($1.4B).
  • Dividend Policy Update: Approved a 6% dividend increase and adjusted free cash flow allocation to return 75–100% to shareholders when net debt is below $16B.
  • 2026 Strategy: Raised production guidance to 1,615,000–1,665,000 BOEs/day, reduced capital forecast by $310M to $6B, and maintains 21 rigs focused on liquids-rich natural gas.

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance in 2025 was outstanding, with record production of 1,571,000 BOEs per day, a 15% year-over-year growth. The company achieved record annual total liquids production of approximately 1,146,000 barrels per day, up 14% from 2024 levels. Operating costs decreased, with total corporate liquids operating costs at $18.44 per barrel, demonstrating the company's focus on cost management.

Reserves and Production Growth

Canadian Natural replaced 2025 production by 218% on a total proved basis and 212% on a total proved plus probable basis, adding over 1.2 billion BOEs of reserves in each category. The company's total proved reserves are 15.9 billion BOE, a 4% increase from 2024, and total proved plus probable reserves increased 3% to 20.75 billion. This strong reserve replacement ratio is a testament to the company's ability to grow its reserves and production.

Shareholder Returns

The company returned approximately $9 billion to shareholders in 2025, including $4.9 billion in dividends and $1.4 billion in share repurchases. The board approved a 6% increase to the quarterly dividend and adjusted the net debt target level in the free cash flow allocation policy, accelerating direct returns to shareholders. With a Dividend Yield of 3.79% and a Free Cash Flow Yield of 6.32%, the company is an attractive option for income investors.

Outlook and Guidance

The company has increased the midpoint of its 2026 production guidance by 20,000 BOEs per day, with a range of 1,615,000 BOEs per day to 1,665,000 BOEs per day. The 2026 capital forecast was reduced by $310 million to approximately $6 billion, demonstrating the company's focus on capital discipline. With a strong operational performance and a solid financial position, Canadian Natural is well-positioned to continue delivering value to shareholders in the years to come.

Canadian Natural Resources's A-Score