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Methanex: Methanex's Q4 2025 Earnings: A Closer Look

Methanex Corporation reported an average realized price of $331 per tonne and produced sales of approximately 2,400,000 tonnes, generating adjusted EBITDA of $180,000,000 and an adjusted net loss of $11,000,000. The actual EPS came out at -$1.5989, missing estimates at $0.9. The company's financial performance was impacted by unabsorbed costs due to outages, as noted by Rich Sumner, "unabsorbed costs came through in Q4 due to outages, but expects fixed costs to come down." The company's revenue growth is estimated to be around 1.0% next year.

MX.TO

CAD 67.53

-13.42%

A-Score: 4.5/10

Publication date: March 6, 2026

Full Report

Author: Analystock.ai

šŸ“‹ Highlights
  • Adjusted EBITDA & Cash Position: $180M adjusted EBITDA in Q4 2025; $425M cash on balance sheet post-year-end, with $125M Term Loan A repayment.
  • 2026 Production Guidance: 9M tonnes equity production expected, with regional allocations of 6M+ tonnes in North America, 1.3ā€“1.4M in Chile, and 0.5ā€“0.6M in Egypt.
  • Market Disruption Impact: Middle East conflict disrupted ~18ā€“20M tonnes of global methanol supply, doubling shipping rates, while Methanex prioritizes contract customer supply security.
  • Safety & Operational Reliability: Zero Tier 1 process safety incidents in 2 years, with 0.09ā€“0.12 recordable injuries per 200,000 hours in 2024ā€“2025.
  • OCI Acquisition Synergies: Targeting $30M in cost synergies by 2026, with integration costs offsetting some initial benefits.

Operational Highlights

The company has demonstrated a strong commitment to safety, with zero Tier 1 process safety incidents over the past two years and recordable injuries per 200,000 hours worked of 0.09 and 0.12 in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Global demand for methanol increased by about 4% in China during the fourth quarter, while demand outside of China remained relatively flat.

Outlook and Guidance

Methanex expects equity production of approximately 9,000,000 tonnes of methanol in 2026, with a focus on safely and reliably operating its business and delivering on its integration plan. The company guides for production of around 6,000,000 tonnes in North America, 1,300,000 to 1,400,000 tonnes for Chile, 0.5 to 0.6 million tonnes for Egypt, and around 800,000 tonnes for Trinidad. Based on a forecasted first quarter average realized price between $330 and $340 per tonne, Methanex expects slightly higher adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter.

Valuation and Financial Position

The company's valuation metrics indicate a P/E Ratio of 49.04, P/B Ratio of 1.58, and EV/EBITDA of 7.35. Methanex ended the year with a strong cash position of $425,000,000 and has repaid $125,000,000 of the Term Loan A facility. The company's Net Debt / EBITDA ratio stands at 3.26, indicating a moderate level of leverage. With a Free Cash Flow Yield of 19.4%, the company appears to be generating significant cash flows.

Impact of Geopolitical Events

The company is closely monitoring the situation in the Middle East, where around 18-20 million tonnes of methanol supply has been impacted. Methanex is prioritizing security of supply to its contract customers and has noted that pricing has increased in all regions, with a significant impact on the globally traded methanol market. The company's shipping fleet, with mostly time charters, has seen shipping rates double, which could benefit the company's pricing.

Methanex's A-Score