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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Aurubis AG processes metal concentrates and recycling materials in Germany.The company processes scrap metals, organic and inorganic metalbearing recycling raw materials, and industrial residues.It also offers wire rods and specialty wires, shapes, bars and profiles, industrial rolled products, and architectural rolled products.


In addition, the company also produces gold, silver, lead, lead-bismuth alloy, lead-antimony litharge, tellurium metals, and tellurium dioxide.Further, the company engages in the recycling of copper, copper scrap, alloy scrap and other recycling materials, precious metals, and other non-ferrous metals; and product businesses.Additionally, it produces sulfuric acid, iron-silicate, smelter intermediates, and selenium, as well as produces various products from purchased copper and copper alloy scrap, electronic scrap, and industrial residues.


The company was formerly known as Norddeutsche Affinerie AG and changed its name to Aurubis AG in April 2009.Aurubis AG was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Hamburg, Germany.

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1.b. Last Insights on NDA

Aurubis AG's recent performance has been positively driven by a favorable business environment. The company's strong fundamentals, as reported in recent analyses, have likely contributed to its upward momentum. Although no major announcements or events have been reported, the steady drift in its share price may signal a shift in market sentiment. With no recent earnings release or notable acquisitions, investors may be reevaluating the company's valuation. A quiet period without headline-grabbing catalysts often sets the stage for a bigger valuation story.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Aurubis' FY '24-'25 Earnings: Solid Performance Amidst Strategic Investments

Aurubis reported revenues of EUR 18.2 billion for fiscal year 2024-'25, a 6% increase driven primarily by higher metal prices. Operating EBT came in at EUR 355 million, within the guided range, while EBITDA reached EUR 589 million. The company's net cash flow was a strong EUR 677 million, significantly above the prior year's level. Operating EPS was EUR 5.97, down from EUR 7.66 in the previous year, mainly due to lower operating EBT and higher tax payments. The actual EPS was EUR 1.05, slightly below estimates of EUR 1.2.

Publication Date: Dec -07

📋 Highlights
  • Strong Net Cash Flow:: Aurubis reported EUR 677 million net cash flow, up from EUR 537 million in the prior year.
  • Revenue Growth:: Revenues rose 6% to EUR 18.2 billion, driven by higher metal prices.
  • Dividend Increase:: Proposed dividend raised to EUR 1.60 per share (up from EUR 1.50), reflecting a 27% payout ratio.
  • Operating ROCE Decline:: ROCE fell to 8.8% from 11.5% year-over-year due to strategic investments.
  • Future Guidance:: Forecasts operating EBITDA of EUR 580–680 million and EBT of EUR 300–400 million for fiscal year '25–'26.

Segmental Performance

The Custom Smelting & Products segment delivered an operating EBT of EUR 446 million, almost at the prior year level. Multimetal Recycling generated an operating EBT of EUR 13 million, impacted by higher ramp-up costs for strategic projects and an impairment on an equity investment. Copper cathode production remained stable at 1.1 million tonnes, while the company processed around 2.2 million tonnes of concentrate, a slight decline year-over-year.

Guidance and Outlook

Aurubis expects an operating EBT between EUR 300 million and EUR 400 million for the next fiscal year, with free cash flow in a positive territory. The company forecasts a net cash flow range of EUR 640 million to EUR 740 million, driving free cash flow before dividend to breakeven. Operating ROCE is expected to be between 7% and 9%. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 12.5%.

Valuation and Dividend Policy

Aurubis' current valuation metrics include a P/E Ratio of 8.42, P/B Ratio of 1.04, and EV/EBITDA of 4.72. The company's dividend policy targets a payout ratio of up to 30% of consolidated net income, with a proposed dividend of EUR 1.60 per share, corresponding to a 27% payout ratio. The Dividend Yield is 1.26%. The updated capital allocation policy aims to maintain a strong balance sheet while pursuing growth and shareholder returns.

Strategic Progress and Challenges

Aurubis has made significant progress on its strategic projects, including Complex Recycling Hamburg and Aurubis Richmond Phase 2. The company has secured key raw material agreements, supporting long-term supply security and ESG positioning. However, the recycling markets have seen only a slight recovery, mainly due to a higher copper price and higher availability of copper scrap. The tax rate is expected to remain high, around 26%, due to a higher tax rate in Bulgaria and one-off special items.

3. NewsRoom

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Basic Materials Roundup: Market Talk

Nov -26

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Aurubis starts production at US copper recycling plant

Sep -24

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Has Aurubis AG's (ETR:NDA) Impressive Stock Performance Got Anything to Do With Its Fundamentals?

Sep -13

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Copper and Copper Alloy Scrap and Recycling Market Forecast Report 2025-2034, with Profiles of Aurubis, Umicore, European Metal Recycling, Dowa, Schnitzer Steel, Kuusakoski, Nucor, and More

Sep -12

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Societe Generale: shares & voting rights as of 31 August 2025

Sep -09

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Vaisala Corporation: Share Repurchase 9.9.2025

Sep -09

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Assessing Acciona (BME:ANA)'s Valuation After Recent Subtle Moves

Sep -09

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Deutsche Bank (XTRA:DBK): Assessing Valuation After a Period of Quiet Share Price Momentum

Sep -09

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (12.11%)

6. Segments

Custom Smelting & Products

Expected Growth: 12%

Aurubis AG's Custom Smelting & Products segment growth of 12% is driven by increasing demand for copper products, expansion into new markets, and strategic investments in production capacity. Additionally, the company's focus on sustainability and recycling, as well as its ability to pass on higher raw material costs to customers, contribute to its growth momentum.

Multimetal Recycling

Expected Growth: 16%

Aurubis AG's Multimetal Recycling segment growth of 16% is driven by increasing demand for sustainable and environmentally friendly practices, stringent regulations on waste management, and rising copper prices. Additionally, the company's strategic expansion into new markets, investments in technology, and efficient recycling processes contribute to its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Copper Cathodes

High-purity copper cathodes for use in electrical and electronic applications

Copper Rods

High-quality copper rods for use in electrical and industrial applications

Copper Strips

Thin, flexible copper strips for use in electrical and electronic applications

Copper Alloys

High-strength, corrosion-resistant copper alloys for use in industrial and engineering applications

Precious Metals

High-purity gold, silver, and other precious metals for use in jewelry, coins, and other applications

Selenium

High-purity selenium for use in glass production, pigments, and other applications

Tellurium

High-purity tellurium for use in steel production, catalysts, and other applications

Recycling Services

Comprehensive recycling services for copper and other non-ferrous metals

8. Aurubis AG's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Aurubis AG operates in the copper production industry, which has a moderate threat of substitutes. While there are alternative materials available, copper remains a widely used and essential material in various industries.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Aurubis AG's customers are primarily industrial companies, which have limited bargaining power due to their dependence on copper as a raw material.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Aurubis AG relies on a diverse range of suppliers for raw materials, which reduces the bargaining power of individual suppliers. However, the company is still exposed to fluctuations in global commodity prices.

Threat Of New Entrants

The copper production industry has significant barriers to entry, including high capital costs, complex production processes, and environmental regulations, making it difficult for new entrants to join the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The copper production industry is highly competitive, with several established players competing for market share. Aurubis AG faces intense rivalry from companies like Glencore, Freeport-McMoRan, and Antofagasta.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 5.83%
Debt Cost 10.56%
Equity Weight 94.17%
Equity Cost 10.83%
WACC 10.81%
Leverage 6.19%

11. Quality Control: Aurubis AG passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Aurubis

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 9.6

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 3.1

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 4.0

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Central Asia Metals

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 4.0

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Evonik

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 2.8

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Brenntag

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 7.1

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 5.6

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 7.3

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Stock-Card
Mondi

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 6.1

Growth: 2.0

Quality: 2.8

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 5.0

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Stock-Card
KGHM Polska Miedz

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 1.2

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

117.2$

Current Price

117.2$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows