- Strong 2025 Financial Performance: CF Industries reported adjusted EBITDA of $2.9B and net earnings of $1.5B ($8.97/share), with Q4 EBITDA at $821M.
- High Ammonia Production Efficiency: Delivered 10.1M tons of ammonia in 2025 at 97% utilization, with 2026 guidance at ~9.5M tons.
- Robust Shareholder Returns: Generated $1.8B in free cash flow in 2025, returning $1.7B to shareholders via $1.3B in share repurchases (16.6M shares).
- Yazoo City Complex Insurance Coverage: Incident costs expected to total $200M in 2026 EBITDA impact, with insurance proceeds expected to offset most or all losses.
- 2026 Market Outlook: Tight nitrogen supply and strong demand projected, with urea prices rising to $450/ton in NOLA (up $100 from Dec 2025) and CO2 sequestration at Donaldsonville boosting EBITDA.
Operational Performance
The Yazoo City Complex incident in November led to a decision to rebuild the ammonium nitrate plant, expected to resume production in Q4 2026. Despite this setback, the company produced 10.1 million tons of gross ammonia in 2025. For 2026, it expects to produce approximately 9.5 million tons of gross ammonia. The full-year EBITDA impact of not running the Yazoo City Complex is expected to be around $200 million; however, the company has business interruption insurance for the site and expects to receive insurance proceeds in 2026 to offset most or all of the loss.
Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns
The company generated $2.75 billion in net cash from operations in 2025 and $1.8 billion in free cash flow, returning $1.7 billion to shareholders, including $1.3 billion to repurchase 16.6 million shares. CF Industries completed a $1 billion senior notes offering in Q4 2025 to refinance debt and strengthen financial flexibility. It repurchased 4.1 million shares for $340 million in Q4 2025, completing its $3 billion share repurchase program and commencing a new $2 billion program.
Valuation and Outlook
With a P/E Ratio of 10.41 and an EV/EBITDA of 5.33, the company's valuation appears reasonable given its strong financial performance. The global nitrogen market dynamics remain constructive, with strong demand and limited supply. CF Industries expects the global nitrogen market to remain tight in the near term, driven by a lack of new supply coming online and growing demand. The company expects 2026 to be strong, driven by a tight market, with the first half looking particularly strong. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at -4.2%, but the company's guidance and operational performance suggest a positive outlook.
Growth Initiatives and Market Trends
The Blue Point project with JERA and Mitsui is progressing well, with civil work expected to begin in Q2 2026. The company is seeing growing interest in low-carbon ammonia and nitrogen products, driven by initiatives such as Japan's $20 billion hydrogen hub. CF Industries is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, with a strong order book and a focus on execution. The company's capital expenditures in 2026 are expected to be approximately $950 million, with $550 million for sustaining CapEx and $400 million for growth projects, including Blue Point.