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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.manufactures and sells hydrogen and nitrogen products for energy, fertilizer, emissions abatement, and other industrial activities worldwide.Its principal products include anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate products.


The company also offers diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua ammonia products; and compound fertilizer products with nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium.It primarily serves cooperatives, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users.The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.

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1.b. Last Insights on CF

CF Industries' recent performance was negatively impacted by a decline in nitrogen prices, which had surged earlier. Despite strong Q2 earnings, beating revenue and EPS estimates with $2.37 per share, the stock faced selling pressure. However, Wall Street analysts' agreement to raise earnings estimates and the stock being in oversold territory may lead to a trend reversal. The company's investor day highlighted its exposure to ammonia and hydrogen, benefiting from decarbonization trends. A share buyback program is also boosting shareholder value. (Source: Zacks)

1.c. Company Highlights

2. CF Industries' Strong Q3 2025 Earnings: A Closer Look

CF Industries reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of approximately $1.1 billion or $6.39 per diluted share for the first 9 months of 2025. The company's EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA were both approximately $2.1 billion. For the third quarter, the company returned $445 million to shareholders. The actual EPS for the quarter came out at $2.19, beating estimates of $2.06. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at -6.3%. The company's financial performance is strong, with a significant return on equity (ROE) of 24.6% and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 11.27%.

Publication Date: Nov -08

📋 Highlights
  • Adjusted EBITDA: Achieved $2.1 billion for the first 9 months of 2025, driven by strong nitrogen demand and operational efficiency.
  • Shareholder Returns: Returned $1.3 billion to shareholders over 9 months, including $445 million in Q3, with $1.8 billion in cash reserves.
  • GHG Emissions Reduction: Cut emissions intensity by 25% since 2018 baseline through plant closures, new efficient facilities, and CO2 sequestration projects.
  • Market Premium for Low-Carbon Ammonia: Secures $20–$25 per ton premium in Europe, with expectations of higher margins as demand grows in 2026.
  • Blue Point Project Progress: Ultra-low emissions ammonia plant in Louisiana on track, with $550 million in 2026 maintenance CapEx and procurement of long-lead equipment completed.

Revenue and Margin Analysis

The global nitrogen supply-demand balance remained tight in the third quarter of 2025, driven by robust demand from North America, India, and Brazil. The company's low-carbon ammonia is now differentiated and commands a premium in the marketplace. CF Industries expects the global nitrogen supply-demand balance to remain constructive, with supply availability continuing to be constrained. The company's ammonia production in Europe has a $20-$25 per ton premium, which is expected to increase as demand grows.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

The company's valuation metrics indicate a relatively attractive price. The P/E Ratio is 9.58, and the EV/EBITDA ratio is 6.44. The Dividend Yield is 2.44%, and the Free Cash Flow Yield is 12.89%. CF Industries is expected to deliver full-year results well above mid-cycle this year, driven by a tight global market with constrained supply and strong demand. The company's growth to $3 billion is identified and in execution, with additional projects on the horizon.

Blue Point Project and Future Prospects

The company's expansion project, Blue Point, is progressing smoothly, with a better understanding of construction hours and unit build material lifts compared to the 2012 expansion projects. The company has procured all the long lead time equipment for the Blue Point project, and costs are in line with the budget. CF Industries is optimistic about the near-term setup for ammonia pricing and expects a strong market in 2026.

Market Outlook and Risks

The demand side of the market is expected to be strong in 2026, driven by the planting year and ammonia demand. However, the supply side is harder to forecast, with disruptions in Russia, Germany, Poland, and Romania contributing to the tight market. The company's management has highlighted that new supply is limited, with only a few plants being built, including their own and a couple in the Gulf Coast, expected to come online in 2026.

3. NewsRoom

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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Presents at Goldman Sachs Industrials and Materials Conference 2025 Transcript

Dec -04

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Groupe la Francaise Increases Stock Position in CF Industries Holdings, Inc. $CF

Dec -04

Source: defenseworld.net

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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF) Receives Consensus Rating of “Hold” from Brokerages

Dec -04

Source: defenseworld.net

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CF Industries Holdings, Inc. to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conference

Dec -03

Source: businesswire.com

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Edgestream Partners L.P. Buys Shares of 50,113 CF Industries Holdings, Inc. $CF

Dec -03

Source: defenseworld.net

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Creative Planning Increases Stock Position in CF Industries Holdings, Inc. $CF

Nov -27

Source: defenseworld.net

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NTR vs. CF: Which Fertilizer Giant is the Better Pick Now?

Nov -25

Source: zacks.com

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Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd Zurich Sells 6,818 Shares of CF Industries Holdings, Inc. $CF

Nov -22

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.72%)

6. Segments

Urea Ammonium Nitrate

Expected Growth: 4.65%

CF Industries Holdings' Urea Ammonium Nitrate growth of 4.65% is driven by increasing demand from the agricultural sector, particularly in North America and South America, due to rising crop prices and growing adoption of precision farming practices. Additionally, the company's strategic expansion into new markets and capacity additions have contributed to the growth.

Granular Urea

Expected Growth: 4.83%

CF Industries Holdings' Granular Urea growth is driven by increasing global demand for nitrogen-based fertilizers, driven by population growth, urbanization, and the need for higher crop yields. Additionally, the company's strategic expansion into high-growth markets, such as Brazil and India, and its focus on operational efficiency and cost reduction, contribute to its 4.83% growth rate.

Ammonia

Expected Growth: 4.65%

CF Industries Holdings' ammonia segment growth is driven by increasing global demand for nitrogen-based fertilizers, particularly in the agriculture sector. Strong crop prices and favorable weather conditions boost fertilizer application rates, while capacity expansions and strategic partnerships enhance production efficiency. Additionally, the company's cost-advantaged position and operational excellence support margin expansion, contributing to the 4.65% growth rate.

Other

Expected Growth: 4.7%

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s 4.7% growth is driven by increasing global demand for nitrogen-based fertilizers, particularly in the Americas and Asia. Strong crop prices, favorable weather conditions, and rising biofuel production also contribute to growth. Additionally, the company's strategic investments in production capacity expansion and cost-saving initiatives enhance its competitiveness and profitability.

Ammonium Nitrate

Expected Growth: 4.83%

CF Industries' Ammonium Nitrate growth is driven by increasing global demand for fertilizers, particularly in the agriculture sector. Rising crop prices and government subsidies for farmers also contribute to growth. Additionally, the company's strategic expansion into new markets and its cost-saving initiatives have improved operational efficiency, further boosting growth.

7. Detailed Products

Nitrogen Fertilizers

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. produces nitrogen fertilizers, including anhydrous ammonia, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN), and ammonium nitrate, which are used to promote plant growth and increase crop yields.

Phosphate Fertilizers

The company produces phosphate fertilizers, including diammonium phosphate (DAP) and monoammonium phosphate (MAP), which provide essential nutrients for plant growth.

Potash Fertilizers

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. produces potash fertilizers, including potassium chloride (KCl), which is used to promote plant growth and increase crop yields.

Sulfuric Acid

The company produces sulfuric acid, a key ingredient in the production of fertilizers and other industrial products.

8. CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is medium due to the availability of alternative fertilizers and agricultural products. While there are some substitutes available, they may not offer the same quality or performance as CF Industries' products.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is low due to the company's strong market position and the lack of concentration among its customer base.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is medium due to the presence of several large suppliers of raw materials. While the company has some negotiating power, suppliers also have some bargaining power due to the importance of their products.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is low due to the high barriers to entry in the fertilizer industry, including the need for significant capital investment and regulatory approvals.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is high due to the competitive nature of the fertilizer industry, with several large players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 34.89%
Debt Cost 5.68%
Equity Weight 65.11%
Equity Cost 9.05%
WACC 7.87%
Leverage 53.59%

11. Quality Control: CF Industries Holdings, Inc. passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
CF Industries

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Mosaic

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 6.7

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Boise Cascade

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Steel Dynamics

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 3.4

Growth: 7.1

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Scotts Miracle-Gro

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 5.2

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
FMC

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 8.6

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

77.88$

Current Price

77.88$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows