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LyondellBasell: LyondellBasell's 2025 Earnings: A Year of Operational Excellence Amidst Challenging Market Conditions

LyondellBasell's financial performance in 2025 was marked by a significant achievement in cash generation, with $2.3 billion in cash from operations, exceeding the company's target by $800 million. However, the actual EPS came out at '-0.26' relative to estimates at '0.18', indicating a challenging year for the company. The revenue growth is estimated to be -0.1% for the next year. The company's EBITDA margin was impacted by higher feedstock costs and lower polyethylene margins in the Olefins and Polyolefins Americas segment, which delivered $164 million of EBITDA in the fourth quarter. As Peter Vanacker, CEO, noted, "Despite challenging market conditions, the team delivered exceptional results in the cash improvement plan and maintained focus on long-term strategy."

LYB

USD 50.25

2.55%

A-Score: 4.6/10

Publication date: January 30, 2026

Full Report

Author: Analystock.ai

📋 Highlights
  • Cash Improvement Exceeds Targets Achieved $2.3 billion in 2025 operational cash, surpassing initial $800 million target.
  • Value Enhancement Progress Program generated $1.1 billion recurring EBITDA in 2025, aiming for $1.5 billion by 2028.
  • Segment EBITDA Highlights Intermediates & Derivatives ($205M) and Olefins & Polyolefins ($164M) faced challenges but met quarterly targets.
  • 2026 Cash & CapEx Goals Targeting $500 million cash improvement, $1.2 billion CapEx ($800M maintenance, $400M growth).
  • Market Outlook Anticipating oxyfuels normalization in 2026 and polypropylene recovery post-demand stabilization, with China’s 4% polyolefins growth.

Segment Performance

The Intermediates & Derivatives segment delivered $205 million of EBITDA in the fourth quarter, despite facing challenges due to the turnaround at the La Porte acetyls unit. The Advanced Polymer Solutions segment (APS) delivered 55% higher EBITDA year-over-year, with substantial improvement in cash generation. The Technology segment delivered solid results, with catalyst demand strengthening across key regions and revenue increasing as a higher number of previously sold licenses reached revenue recognition milestones.

Valuation Metrics

LyondellBasell's current valuation metrics indicate a P/E Ratio of -0.0, P/B Ratio of 0.0, and P/S Ratio of 0.68. The EV/EBITDA ratio stands at 18.78, indicating a relatively high valuation. The Dividend Yield is 11.12%, making it an attractive option for income-seeking investors. The Free Cash Flow Yield is 4.68%, indicating a stable cash generation profile.

Outlook and Guidance

The company expects modest improvements in the first quarter, with typical seasonal demand recovery in North America, and demand improvement in Europe. The CapEx guide for 2026 is $1.2 billion, with $800 million in maintenance and $400 million in growth projects. LyondellBasell aims to continue its focus on cash improvement in 2026, targeting an additional $500 million. The company is also targeting a recurring annual EBITDA of $1.5 billion by 2028.

Market Trends and Industry Outlook

The polypropylene market is expected to recover if consumer confidence increases, with the global cost curve being flat, and most players not exporting, except for the Middle East and China, which are heavily oversupplied. The US Gulf Coast market for polyethylene is expected to see price initiatives supported, given the scarcity of inventory and increasing export pricing. China's anti-involution policies are expected to lead to capacity rationalization, with the government discussing criteria for asset rationalization.

LyondellBasell's A-Score