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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

LyondellBasell Industries N.V. operates as a chemical company in the United States, Germany, Mexico, Italy, Poland, France, Japan, China, the Netherlands, and internationally.The company operates in six segments: Olefins and Polyolefins—Americas; Olefins and Polyolefins—Europe, Asia, International; Intermediates and Derivatives; Advanced Polymer Solutions; Refining; and Technology.It produces and markets olefins and co-products; polyolefins; polyethylene products, which consist of high density polyethylene, low density polyethylene, and linear low density polyethylene; and polypropylene (PP) products, such as PP homopolymers and copolymers.


The company also produces and sells propylene oxide and its derivatives; oxyfuels and related products; and intermediate chemicals, such as styrene monomers, acetyls, ethylene glycols, and ethylene oxides and derivatives.In addition, it produces and markets compounds and solutions, such as polypropylene compounds, engineered plastics, masterbatches, engineered composites, colors, and powders; and advanced polymers.Further, the company refines crude oil and other crude oils of varied types and sources into gasoline and distillates; develops and licenses chemical and polyolefin process technologies; and manufactures and sells polyolefin catalysts.


LyondellBasell Industries N.V. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

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1.b. Last Insights on LYB

LyondellBasell Industries N.V.'s recent performance was driven by a strong Q3 earnings beat, with a $1.01 per share earnings, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.8 per share. The company's olefins margins in the Americas segment lifted performance. A 12% dividend yield is attractive, with management's cost-cutting initiatives and anticipated capacity reductions supporting a positive outlook for cash flow and earnings growth. Industry dynamics are improving, with demand rebounding and capacity rationalization accelerating. LYB's low-cost US production base provides resilience.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. LyondellBasell's 2025 Earnings: A Year of Operational Excellence Amidst Challenging Market Conditions

LyondellBasell's financial performance in 2025 was marked by a significant achievement in cash generation, with $2.3 billion in cash from operations, exceeding the company's target by $800 million. However, the actual EPS came out at '-0.26' relative to estimates at '0.18', indicating a challenging year for the company. The revenue growth is estimated to be -0.1% for the next year. The company's EBITDA margin was impacted by higher feedstock costs and lower polyethylene margins in the Olefins and Polyolefins Americas segment, which delivered $164 million of EBITDA in the fourth quarter. As Peter Vanacker, CEO, noted, "Despite challenging market conditions, the team delivered exceptional results in the cash improvement plan and maintained focus on long-term strategy."

Publication Date: Feb -02

📋 Highlights
  • Cash Improvement Exceeds Targets: Achieved $2.3 billion in 2025 operational cash, surpassing initial $800 million target.
  • Value Enhancement Progress: Program generated $1.1 billion recurring EBITDA in 2025, aiming for $1.5 billion by 2028.
  • Segment EBITDA Highlights: Intermediates & Derivatives ($205M) and Olefins & Polyolefins ($164M) faced challenges but met quarterly targets.
  • 2026 Cash & CapEx Goals: Targeting $500 million cash improvement, $1.2 billion CapEx ($800M maintenance, $400M growth).
  • Market Outlook: Anticipating oxyfuels normalization in 2026 and polypropylene recovery post-demand stabilization, with China’s 4% polyolefins growth.

Segment Performance

The Intermediates & Derivatives segment delivered $205 million of EBITDA in the fourth quarter, despite facing challenges due to the turnaround at the La Porte acetyls unit. The Advanced Polymer Solutions segment (APS) delivered 55% higher EBITDA year-over-year, with substantial improvement in cash generation. The Technology segment delivered solid results, with catalyst demand strengthening across key regions and revenue increasing as a higher number of previously sold licenses reached revenue recognition milestones.

Valuation Metrics

LyondellBasell's current valuation metrics indicate a P/E Ratio of -0.0, P/B Ratio of 0.0, and P/S Ratio of 0.68. The EV/EBITDA ratio stands at 18.78, indicating a relatively high valuation. The Dividend Yield is 11.12%, making it an attractive option for income-seeking investors. The Free Cash Flow Yield is 4.68%, indicating a stable cash generation profile.

Outlook and Guidance

The company expects modest improvements in the first quarter, with typical seasonal demand recovery in North America, and demand improvement in Europe. The CapEx guide for 2026 is $1.2 billion, with $800 million in maintenance and $400 million in growth projects. LyondellBasell aims to continue its focus on cash improvement in 2026, targeting an additional $500 million. The company is also targeting a recurring annual EBITDA of $1.5 billion by 2028.

Market Trends and Industry Outlook

The polypropylene market is expected to recover if consumer confidence increases, with the global cost curve being flat, and most players not exporting, except for the Middle East and China, which are heavily oversupplied. The US Gulf Coast market for polyethylene is expected to see price initiatives supported, given the scarcity of inventory and increasing export pricing. China's anti-involution policies are expected to lead to capacity rationalization, with the government discussing criteria for asset rationalization.

3. NewsRoom

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LyondellBasell: I'm Turning Bearish Again After Q4 Earnings

Feb -02

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Forget 2025: 2 High-Yield Materials Stocks to Power Your Passive Income in 2026

Feb -02

Source: fool.com

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LyondellBasell Industries Q4 Earnings Call Highlights

Feb -01

Source: defenseworld.net

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5 'Safer' Dividend Buys In Barron's 23 Better January Bets Than T-Bill

Jan -31

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Envestnet Portfolio Solutions Inc. Sells 14,202 Shares of LyondellBasell Industries N.V. $LYB

Jan -31

Source: defenseworld.net

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LyondellBasell's Crucial Moment: Will The Board Protect The Dividend?

Jan -30

Source: seekingalpha.com

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LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges with Strategic Cash Management and Growth Plans

Jan -30

Source: gurufocus.com

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LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Jan -30

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.21%)

6. Segments

Olefins and Polyolefins - Americas

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Growing demand for polyethylene and polypropylene from packaging, automotive, and construction industries, driven by increasing urbanization, consumer spending, and substituting traditional materials with lighter and more sustainable options, will drive LyondellBasell's Olefins and Polyolefins growth in the Americas region.

Olefins and Polyolefins - Europe, Asia and International

Expected Growth: 4.5%

LyondellBasell's polyolefins and olefins production is driven by increasing demand for packaging materials in e-commerce and rising automotive production in Europe and Asia.

Intermediates & Derivatives

Expected Growth: 4.2%

Driven by increasing demand in packaging and construction, LyondellBasell Industries N.V. is expected to benefit from growth in the plastics and materials industry, supported by innovative product offerings and expanding production capacities

Refining

Expected Growth: 3.5%

Strong demand for transportation fuels and petrochemicals drives growth in LyondellBasell’s refining segment, supported by the company’s strategic investments in refining and capacity expansion.

Advanced Polymer Solutions

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Growing demand for advanced polymer solutions in automotive, construction, and packaging industries, driven by increasing focus on sustainability and efficiency, is expected to drive LyondellBasell's polymer business.

Technology

Expected Growth: 4.5%

LyondellBasell’s technology segment will benefit from growing global demand for polyolefins, driven by increasing use in packaging, automotive, and construction applications.

Other

Expected Growth: 4.5%

LyondellBasell’s miscellaneous business benefits from a diversified product portfolio, strong distribution networks, and a growing demand for industrial materials, driving growth in this segment.

7. Detailed Products

Olefins

LyondellBasell produces olefins, which are the building blocks of plastics, through the cracking of petroleum-based feedstocks.

Polyolefins

LyondellBasell produces polyolefins, including polyethylene and polypropylene, which are used in packaging, plastics, and other applications.

Intermediates

LyondellBasell produces intermediates, including propylene oxide, styrene, and butadiene, which are used to manufacture a range of chemicals and plastics.

Refinery Products

LyondellBasell produces refinery products, including diesel fuel, gasoline, and jet fuel, through its refining operations.

Lubricants

LyondellBasell produces lubricants, including base oils and finished lubricants, for use in automotive, industrial, and marine applications.

Fuel Oils

LyondellBasell produces fuel oils, including marine fuels, heating oils, and other specialty fuels.

8. LyondellBasell Industries N.V.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for LyondellBasell Industries N.V. is medium due to the availability of alternative products and technologies in the petrochemical industry.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for LyondellBasell Industries N.V. is low due to the company's strong market position and diversified customer base.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for LyondellBasell Industries N.V. is medium due to the company's dependence on a few key suppliers for raw materials.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for LyondellBasell Industries N.V. is low due to the high barriers to entry in the petrochemical industry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for LyondellBasell Industries N.V. is high due to the competitive nature of the petrochemical industry, with many established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 50.14%
Debt Cost 4.53%
Equity Weight 49.86%
Equity Cost 9.89%
WACC 7.20%
Leverage 100.55%

11. Quality Control: LyondellBasell Industries N.V. passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Ecolab

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 1.2

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
PPG

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 2.8

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Sherwin-Williams

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 1.7

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
LyondellBasell

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 2.6

Quality: 1.9

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Air Products

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 2.1

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
IFF

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 5.4

Growth: 2.3

Quality: 3.1

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

50.25$

Current Price

50.25$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows