- Strong Financial Performance: Achieved $5.9B adjusted EBITDA and $3.6B adjusted free cash flow before growth in 2025, exceeding guidance midpoints.
- Strategic Acquisitions Boost Capacity: Added 17 modern gas facilities (26 GW total capacity) via Lotus and Cogentrix acquisitions at $730/kW, driving mid-single-digit FCF accretion by 2027.
- Nuclear Leadership: Secured 3.8 GW of long-term nuclear capacity (20-year contracts with Amazon and Meta), exceeding any U.S. peer in carbon-free power delivery.
- Electricity Demand Growth: U.S. consumption hit 4,200 TWh in 2025 (+2.5% YoY), with ERCOT and PJM expecting 3–5% annual peak load growth through 2030.
- Capital Allocation Plan: Projects $10B+ cash generation by 2027, allocating $3B to equity holders (buybacks/dividends) and $4B to growth, including Permian gas units and PPA projects.
Strategic Acquisitions and Contracting Progress
Vistra made significant strides in expanding its generation portfolio through strategic acquisitions, including the purchase of 7 modern natural gas generation facilities from Lotus Infrastructure Partners and its agreement to acquire Cogentrix Energy, which includes 10 modern natural gas generation facilities. The company also made notable progress in contracting long-term nuclear capacity, with approximately 3.8 gigawatts of nuclear capacity contracted through multiple power purchase agreements, including 20-year agreements with Amazon Web Services and Meta.
Growth Outlook and Capital Allocation
Vistra projects generating over $10 billion in cash through 2027, driven by its hedging program and nuclear Production Tax Credits (PTC). The company plans to allocate $3 billion to equity holders through share repurchases and dividends in 2026 and 2027, and $4 billion towards growth investments, including the Cogentrix acquisition and development of Permian gas units. With a strong balance sheet and investment-grade ratings, Vistra is well-positioned to support its growth plans.
Valuation and Leverage Metrics
With a P/E Ratio of 63.62 and an EV/EBITDA ratio of -21.54, Vistra's valuation suggests that the market is pricing in significant growth expectations. The company's Net Debt / EBITDA ratio stands at 1.57, indicating a manageable leverage position. As Vistra continues to execute on its strategic priorities, its improved net leverage levels and higher earnings visibility could lead to additional ratings upgrades.
Hyperscaler Demand and Nuclear Uprates
Vistra is witnessing strong demand from hyperscalers for power PPAs, particularly for data centers. The company has an advantage due to its many sites, land availability, and demonstrated capability in developing and operating generation. Vistra has also made significant progress in nuclear uprates, with 433 megawatts contracted with Meta and 200 megawatts with Comanche Peak, covering existing opportunities.