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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company.The company operates through six segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure.It retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across 20 states in the United States and the District of Columbia.


The company is also involved in the electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel production, and fuel logistics management activities.It serves approximately 4.3 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 38,700 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities.The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp.


and changed its name to Vistra Corp.in July 2020.Vistra Corp.


was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.

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1.b. Last Insights on VST

Vistra Corp.'s recent performance was negatively impacted by market misperceptions of earnings volatility, despite disciplined hedging and robust cash generation. Non-cash GAAP hedge losses contributed to the share price weakness, not fundamental deterioration. The company's Q3 2025 earnings missed revenue expectations, but management signaled confidence through aggressive 2026 guidance and a $1 billion share buyback authorization. Institutional investors, including Ascent Group LLC and Bourgeon Capital Management LLC, have trimmed their positions in the company.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Vistra's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Vistra delivered a robust financial performance in Q3 2025, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $1.581 billion, comprising $1.544 billion from the Generation segment and $37 million from Retail. The Generation segment benefited significantly from the company's comprehensive hedging program, with average realized prices over $10 per megawatt hour higher compared to the same quarter last year. The company's actual EPS came out at $3.08, beating estimates of $2.08. Revenue growth is expected to continue, with analysts estimating a 13.7% growth in revenues for the next year.

Publication Date: Nov -07

📋 Highlights
  • 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance Narrowed: to $5.7B–$5.9B, with adjusted free cash flow before growth at $3.3B–$3.5B.
  • 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: set at $6.8B–$7.6B, with free cash flow before growth of $3.925B–$4.725B, driven by Lotus asset contributions.
  • Cash Generation Target: of $10B through year-end 2027, supported by hedging programs and nuclear PTC downside protection.
  • Share Repurchase Program: reduced shares by 30% since inception, with $2.2B remaining in authorization to meet annual targets through 2027.
  • Net Leverage Ratio: at 2.6x, targeting investment-grade levels, with $4B in capital available for growth and M&A by 2027.

Financial Highlights

The company's financial performance was driven by the dedication of its approximately 7,000 team members across the organization. Vistra's guidance range for 2025 adjusted EBITDA was narrowed to $5.7 billion to $5.9 billion, and its 2025 adjusted free cash flow before growth was narrowed to $3.3 billion to $3.5 billion. The company is introducing guidance ranges for 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion and adjusted free cash flow before growth of $3.925 billion to $4.725 billion.

Valuation Metrics

To understand what's priced into Vistra's stock, we can examine its valuation metrics. The company's P/E Ratio stands at 86.12, indicating a relatively high valuation. However, its EV/EBITDA ratio is 31.68, which is more reasonable. Additionally, the company's Free Cash Flow Yield is 3.81%, which is attractive compared to the average free cash flow yield for companies in the S&P 500. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is -1.4, indicating a healthy debt position. As per Kris Moldovan, the company has a $4 billion cash reserve, which provides dry powder for strategic acquisitions and room to increase leverage as business risk improves.

Growth Prospects

Vistra is well-positioned for growth, driven by its multiyear plan to drive significantly higher profitability levels against the backdrop of accelerating electricity demand growth. The company is seeing heightened activity levels in data center contracting opportunities and hopes to execute deals by year-end. Additionally, the company is exploring prospects for contracting the second unit at Comanche Peak and other infrastructure opportunities on the site. With a strong balance sheet and leverage of approximately 2.6x, Vistra is poised to continue delivering value to its customers and shareholders.

3. NewsRoom

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Here Are Congresswoman Nancy Pelosi's Initial Stock Moves in 2026: They Include Nvidia, Alphabet, and Amazon Stocks, and Others

Feb -01

Source: fool.com

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Vistra vs. Public Service Enterprise: Which Utility Stock Stands Out?

Jan -30

Source: zacks.com

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AE Wealth Management LLC Trims Position in Vistra Corp. $VST

Jan -30

Source: defenseworld.net

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OpenAI’s $200B War Chest and the Great AI Infrastructure Land Grab

Jan -30

Source: investorplace.com

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Here's Why Vistra Corp. (VST) Fell More Than Broader Market

Jan -29

Source: zacks.com

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Vistra's Growth Trajectory: Why The Stock Is Poised To Rise, But Better Plays Exist

Jan -29

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Frozen Assets: Winter Storm Fern Is Heating Up These 3 Energy Winners

Jan -28

Source: marketbeat.com

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Vistra: Pullback Driven By Accounting Optics, Not Fundamentals

Jan -28

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.22%)

6. Segments

Retail

Expected Growth: None%

None

East

Expected Growth: None%

None

Texas

Expected Growth: None%

None

West

Expected Growth: None%

None

Asset Closure

Expected Growth: None%

None

Eliminations/Corporate and Other

Expected Growth: None%

None

7. Detailed Products

Retail Electricity

Vistra Corp. provides retail electricity plans to residential and commercial customers, offering competitive pricing and flexible contract terms.

Wholesale Electricity

Vistra Corp. generates and sells wholesale electricity to other utilities, municipalities, and load-serving entities.

Generation and Trading

Vistra Corp. owns and operates power generation assets, including natural gas, coal, and nuclear facilities, and trades energy commodities.

Transmission and Distribution

Vistra Corp. owns and operates transmission and distribution infrastructure, providing reliable and efficient energy delivery.

Energy Storage

Vistra Corp. develops and operates energy storage projects, providing flexible and reliable energy solutions.

8. Vistra Corp.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Vistra Corp. operates in the energy industry, where substitutes are limited. However, the increasing adoption of renewable energy sources and energy storage technologies poses a moderate threat to the company's business.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Vistra Corp. serves a large customer base, including residential, commercial, and industrial customers. However, the company's large scale and diversified customer base reduce the bargaining power of individual customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Vistra Corp. relies on various suppliers for fuel, equipment, and services. While the company has some bargaining power due to its large scale, suppliers may still exert some pressure on prices and terms.

Threat Of New Entrants

The energy industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles. This limits the threat of new entrants to Vistra Corp.'s business.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The energy industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share. Vistra Corp. faces intense rivalry from other energy companies, which may lead to pricing pressure and reduced margins.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 73.45%
Debt Cost 5.63%
Equity Weight 26.55%
Equity Cost 9.06%
WACC 6.54%
Leverage 276.69%

11. Quality Control: Vistra Corp. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Duke Energy

A-Score: 7.2/10

Value: 5.9

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 7.0

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 10.0

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American Electric Power

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 4.4

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 10.0

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Edison

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 7.7

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Sempra

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 4.2

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 9.0

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PSEG

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 3.1

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 10.0

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Vistra

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 2.7

Growth: 9.0

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

154.26$

Current Price

154.26$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows