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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company.The company operates through six segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure.It retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across 20 states in the United States and the District of Columbia.


The company is also involved in the electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel production, and fuel logistics management activities.It serves approximately 4.3 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 38,700 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities.The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp.


and changed its name to Vistra Corp.in July 2020.Vistra Corp.


was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.

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1.b. Last Insights on VST

Vistra Corp.'s recent performance was negatively impacted by a setback at its Moss Landing facility. The company's Q4 earnings missed estimates, with revenues rising 13.5% year-over-year. A negative Earnings Surprise Prediction (ESP) clouded the chances of a surprise beat. Additionally, some institutional investors, such as Artisan Partners Limited Partnership and Ascent Group LLC, have decreased their holdings in the company. Vistra's 2026 EBITDA outlook is up to $7.6B, but this was not enough to offset the negative sentiment.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Vistra's Strong 2025 Earnings: A Testament to its Strategic Vision

Vistra reported a robust financial performance for 2025, with adjusted EBITDA reaching approximately $5.9 billion, above the midpoint of its original guidance range. The company's earnings per share (EPS) came in at $5.26, significantly beating analyst estimates of $2.6. Revenue growth is expected to continue, with analysts estimating a 9.9% increase for the next year. The Generation segment contributed $4.290 billion to adjusted EBITDA, while the Retail segment added $1.622 billion, driven by a strong customer count and margin performance.

Publication Date: Feb -27

📋 Highlights
  • Strong Financial Performance:: Achieved $5.9B adjusted EBITDA and $3.6B adjusted free cash flow before growth in 2025, exceeding guidance midpoints.
  • Strategic Acquisitions Boost Capacity:: Added 17 modern gas facilities (26 GW total capacity) via Lotus and Cogentrix acquisitions at $730/kW, driving mid-single-digit FCF accretion by 2027.
  • Nuclear Leadership:: Secured 3.8 GW of long-term nuclear capacity (20-year contracts with Amazon and Meta), exceeding any U.S. peer in carbon-free power delivery.
  • Electricity Demand Growth:: U.S. consumption hit 4,200 TWh in 2025 (+2.5% YoY), with ERCOT and PJM expecting 3–5% annual peak load growth through 2030.
  • Capital Allocation Plan:: Projects $10B+ cash generation by 2027, allocating $3B to equity holders (buybacks/dividends) and $4B to growth, including Permian gas units and PPA projects.

Strategic Acquisitions and Contracting Progress

Vistra made significant strides in expanding its generation portfolio through strategic acquisitions, including the purchase of 7 modern natural gas generation facilities from Lotus Infrastructure Partners and its agreement to acquire Cogentrix Energy, which includes 10 modern natural gas generation facilities. The company also made notable progress in contracting long-term nuclear capacity, with approximately 3.8 gigawatts of nuclear capacity contracted through multiple power purchase agreements, including 20-year agreements with Amazon Web Services and Meta.

Growth Outlook and Capital Allocation

Vistra projects generating over $10 billion in cash through 2027, driven by its hedging program and nuclear Production Tax Credits (PTC). The company plans to allocate $3 billion to equity holders through share repurchases and dividends in 2026 and 2027, and $4 billion towards growth investments, including the Cogentrix acquisition and development of Permian gas units. With a strong balance sheet and investment-grade ratings, Vistra is well-positioned to support its growth plans.

Valuation and Leverage Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of 63.62 and an EV/EBITDA ratio of -21.54, Vistra's valuation suggests that the market is pricing in significant growth expectations. The company's Net Debt / EBITDA ratio stands at 1.57, indicating a manageable leverage position. As Vistra continues to execute on its strategic priorities, its improved net leverage levels and higher earnings visibility could lead to additional ratings upgrades.

Hyperscaler Demand and Nuclear Uprates

Vistra is witnessing strong demand from hyperscalers for power PPAs, particularly for data centers. The company has an advantage due to its many sites, land availability, and demonstrated capability in developing and operating generation. Vistra has also made significant progress in nuclear uprates, with 433 megawatts contracted with Meta and 200 megawatts with Comanche Peak, covering existing opportunities.

3. NewsRoom

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Analysts Rally Behind These Nuclear Leaders As White House Unveils Expansion Blitz

Mar -18

Source: investors.com

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PGIM Jennison Utility Fund Q4 2025 Portfolio Movers

Mar -18

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Vistra Achieves Investment‑Grade Credit Ratings from S&P and Fitch

Mar -17

Source: prnewswire.com

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Bank of Nova Scotia Grows Stock Holdings in Vistra Corp. $VST

Mar -17

Source: defenseworld.net

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PGIM Jennison Energy Infrastructure Fund Q4 2025: Who Moved The Needle

Mar -17

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Why Vistra Corp. (VST) Outpaced the Stock Market Today

Mar -16

Source: zacks.com

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Utilities Stock for Contrarian Options Traders

Mar -16

Source: schaeffersresearch.com

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2 Monster Energy Stocks to Hold for the Next 10 Years

Mar -15

Source: fool.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.22%)

6. Segments

Retail

Expected Growth: None%

None

East

Expected Growth: None%

None

Texas

Expected Growth: None%

None

West

Expected Growth: None%

None

Asset Closure

Expected Growth: None%

None

Eliminations/Corporate and Other

Expected Growth: None%

None

7. Detailed Products

Retail Electricity

Vistra Corp. provides retail electricity plans to residential and commercial customers, offering competitive pricing and flexible contract terms.

Wholesale Electricity

Vistra Corp. generates and sells wholesale electricity to other utilities, municipalities, and load-serving entities.

Generation and Trading

Vistra Corp. owns and operates power generation assets, including natural gas, coal, and nuclear facilities, and trades energy commodities.

Transmission and Distribution

Vistra Corp. owns and operates transmission and distribution infrastructure, providing reliable and efficient energy delivery.

Energy Storage

Vistra Corp. develops and operates energy storage projects, providing flexible and reliable energy solutions.

8. Vistra Corp.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Vistra Corp. operates in the energy industry, where substitutes are limited. However, the increasing adoption of renewable energy sources and energy storage technologies poses a moderate threat to the company's business.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Vistra Corp. serves a large customer base, including residential, commercial, and industrial customers. However, the company's large scale and diversified customer base reduce the bargaining power of individual customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Vistra Corp. relies on various suppliers for fuel, equipment, and services. While the company has some bargaining power due to its large scale, suppliers may still exert some pressure on prices and terms.

Threat Of New Entrants

The energy industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles. This limits the threat of new entrants to Vistra Corp.'s business.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The energy industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share. Vistra Corp. faces intense rivalry from other energy companies, which may lead to pricing pressure and reduced margins.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 73.45%
Debt Cost 5.63%
Equity Weight 26.55%
Equity Cost 9.06%
WACC 6.54%
Leverage 276.69%

11. Quality Control: Vistra Corp. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Duke Energy

A-Score: 7.2/10

Value: 5.9

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 7.0

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 10.0

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American Electric Power

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 4.4

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 10.0

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Edison

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 7.7

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Sempra

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 4.2

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 9.0

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PSEG

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 3.1

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 10.0

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Vistra

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 2.7

Growth: 9.0

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

146.2$

Current Price

146.2$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows