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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Aya Gold & Silver Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, evaluation, and development of precious metal properties in Morocco.The company primarily explores for gold, silver, zinc, lead, tungsten, molybdenum, uranium, and copper deposits.Its flagship project is the Zgounder property located approximately 265 kms east of Agadir in the Proterozoic Siroua Massif of the Anti-Atlas Range, Morocco.


Aya Gold & Silver Inc.was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Montreal, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on AYA

Aya Gold & Silver's recent performance was driven by strong Q2 2025 results, including a 141% increase in silver production to 1.04 million ounces, driven by the ramp-up of the Zgounder plant. The company reported high-grade silver discoveries in Morocco, including a new mineralized zone at Zgounder and Boumadine. Stifel Canada maintained a buy rating on the stock with a C$22.00 price target. However, short seller Blue Orca Capital alleged resource inflation, prompting the company to refute the claims. Aya also expanded its footprint with new mining licenses.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Aya Gold & Silver's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Aya Gold & Silver delivered a robust financial performance in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching $54 million, a 20% increase driven by higher production and silver prices. The company's net income was $12.4 million, and adjusted earnings per share were $0.09. However, actual EPS came in at $0.1253, below estimates of $0.2153. The margin was strong at $19 in Q3, with expectations of $28 in Q4. The production costs were higher than expected due to the grade from the open pit and cyanide prices, but the company is working on controlling costs.

Publication Date: Nov -29

📋 Highlights
  • Production Ramp-Up:: Mill throughput increased to 4,000 tonnes/day (up from 2,700), with recoveries at 92.5% and 1.35 million ounces produced.
  • Financial Performance:: Q3 revenue hit $54M (20% growth), net income of $12.4M, and $22M cash flow, with $129M unrestricted cash.
  • Exploration Progress:: Boumadine PEA showed $1.5M post-tax NPV, 47–69% IRR, and 1.3–2-year payback, with 109,000m of 140,000m drilling completed.
  • Margin Resilience:: Q3 margin at $19/ounce, Q4 expected at $28, despite higher costs from open-pit grade and cyanide prices.
  • Operational Efficiency:: Open-pit tonnage rose to 45,000 tonnes/day (up from 4,000), with plans to stabilize grades and reduce dilution by Q1 2026.

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance was impressive, with the mill plant ramp-up nearing completion and ore processing increasing from 2,700 tonnes per day to 4,000 tonnes per day. Mill recoveries reached 92.5%, and the underground mine produced 159g/t. As Raphael Beaudoin, an executive, mentioned, "they have increased the total tonnage moved per day in the open pit tenfold, from 4,000 tonnes per day to 45,000 tonnes per day." The company is focused on steady-state tonnage and grade control, expecting an improvement in grade in the open pit at the beginning of next year.

Exploration and Growth Prospects

The Boumadine project PEA results showed a post-tax NPV of $1.5 billion, with an internal rate of return between 47% and 69%. The company is launching a 360,000-meter drill campaign over the next two years to further develop the project. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 33.5%, indicating a positive outlook for the company.

Valuation Metrics

To understand what's priced in, we can look at the company's valuation metrics. The P/E Ratio is -177.49, P/B Ratio is 4.66, and P/S Ratio is 20.83. The EV/EBITDA is 278.45, indicating a high valuation. The company's ROE is -3.46%, and ROIC is -8.78%, suggesting room for improvement in profitability.

Cash Flow and Balance Sheet

The company's cash position is strong, with $129 million in unrestricted cash and an undrawn credit facility of $10 million. The company drew down $15 million on the credit facility as part of an agreement with EBRD. The operating cash flow was $22 million, and the company is expected to maintain a healthy cash balance.

3. NewsRoom

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Aya Gold & Silver Reporting Q3 "Record" Production at Zgounder

Oct -15

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Aya Gold & Silver Reports Q3 Record Production of 1.35M oz at Zgounder, Up 29% Quarter Over Quarter

Oct -15

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Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Aya Gold & Silver Inc. (TSE:AYA)

Oct -07

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Update: Aya Gold & Silver Up 9.2% as It Slams Allegations It Overstated Its Silver Resources at It Morocco Mine

Sep -26

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REPEAT – Aya Gold & Silver Categorically Rejects the Erroneous and Misleading Allegations Made Against the Company

Sep -26

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Aya Gold & Silver Categorically Rejects the Erroneous and Misleading Allegations Made Against the Company

Sep -25

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Aya Gold & Silver falls after short seller alleges resource inflation

Sep -25

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CIBC Raises Price Target on Silver Miners

Sep -25

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.83%)

6. Segments

Production (Zgounder Silver Mine - Morocco)

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Aya Gold & Silver's 4.83% growth at Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco is driven by increased silver prices, improved mining efficiency, and enhanced processing capacity. Additionally, the mine's high-grade ore reserves and low operating costs contribute to its strong performance. The company's focus on exploration and development also supports future growth potential.

7. Detailed Products

Gold Coins

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. offers a wide range of gold coins from renowned mints around the world, including the American Gold Eagle, Canadian Gold Maple Leaf, and South African Krugerrand.

Silver Bars

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. provides high-quality silver bars from leading refineries, available in various weights and sizes, including 1 oz, 5 oz, and 10 oz.

Jewelry

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. offers a stunning collection of gold and silver jewelry, including necklaces, bracelets, earrings, and rings, crafted with exceptional quality and design.

IRA Services

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. provides Individual Retirement Account (IRA) services, allowing clients to hold physical gold and silver in their retirement portfolios.

Storage Services

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. offers secure storage options for clients' precious metal holdings, ensuring safekeeping and protection of their assets.

Coin Grading Services

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. partners with leading coin grading services to provide expert authentication and grading of rare and collectible coins.

8. Aya Gold & Silver Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has a low threat of substitutes due to the unique properties of gold and silver, making it difficult for substitutes to emerge.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has a medium bargaining power of customers due to the presence of a few large customers, but the company's diversified customer base mitigates this risk.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has a high bargaining power of suppliers due to the concentrated market of gold and silver suppliers, giving them significant negotiating power.

Threat Of New Entrants

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has a low threat of new entrants due to the high barriers to entry in the gold and silver mining industry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. operates in a moderately competitive industry, with several established players, but the company's strong brand and operational efficiency help to mitigate the intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 21.03%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 78.97%
Equity Cost 10.63%
WACC 9.23%
Leverage 26.64%

11. Quality Control: Aya Gold & Silver Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Fortuna Silver Mines

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 7.8

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
US Lime & Minerals

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 1.6

Growth: 8.2

Quality: 8.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Hawkins

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 1.6

Growth: 7.9

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Silvercorp Metals

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 3.2

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 7.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
First Majestic Silver

A-Score: 2.9/10

Value: 1.5

Growth: 2.1

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Aya Gold & Silver

A-Score: 2.9/10

Value: 4.4

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

18.2$

Current Price

18.2$

Potential

0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows