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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Cameco Corporation produces and sells uranium.It operates through two segments, Uranium and Fuel Services.The Uranium segment is involved in the exploration for, mining, and milling, as well as purchase and sale of uranium concentrate.


The Fuel Services segment engages in the refining, conversion, and fabrication of uranium concentrate, as well as the purchase and sale of conversion services.This segment also produces fuel bundles or reactor components for CANDU reactors.The company sells its uranium and fuel services to nuclear utilities in the Americas, Europe, and Asia.


Cameco Corporation was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Saskatoon, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on CCO

Cameco Corporation's recent performance was negatively impacted by escalating global trade tensions between the U.S. and China, leading to a significant market downturn. The company's exposure to the U.S. market, particularly in the context of tariffs, contributed to its decline. Additionally, Cameco's earnings plunged more than 50% in Q4 2024, despite growing sales 21% year-over-year. The company's debt refinancing efforts and positive outlook for nuclear energy were overshadowed by the broader market turmoil.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Cameco's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance Amidst Industry Momentum

Cameco Corporation reported a significant deviation in EPS with an actual value of $0.07 against the estimated $0.4933. Despite this, the company's financial position remains robust, with $779 million in cash and cash equivalents and a $1 billion undrawn revolving credit facility. The revenue growth for the next year is estimated at 6.2%, indicating a positive outlook. The current valuation metrics show a P/E Ratio of 105.6, P/B Ratio of 8.36, and P/S Ratio of 15.78, suggesting that the market has high expectations from the company.

Publication Date: Nov -08

📋 Highlights
  • US Government Partnership Deal: Cameco secured an $80 billion agreement with the U.S. government for Westinghouse reactors, aiming to standardize reactor builds and secure 25-40% of plant costs with EBITDA margins of 10-20%.
  • 2025 Production Cut: Production reduced to 20 million pounds of uranium (from 22M lbs) due to delays at McArthur River and Key Lake, with fourth-quarter volumes expected to rise.
  • Strong Financial Position: $779 million in cash, $1 billion in debt, and a $1 billion undrawn credit facility, alongside a 2025 dividend of $0.24/share (up from previous plans).
  • Westinghouse Reactor Capacity: Westinghouse can start 2-2 reactor builds annually, with AP300 reactors integrated into the AP ecosystem for scalable deployment.

Operational Performance and Outlook

Cameco's production outlook for 2025 has been adjusted to 20 million pounds of uranium, down from 22 million pounds due to development delays at McArthur River and Key Lake operations. However, the company's supply sourcing flexibility allows it to adapt to changing market conditions. The uranium and fuel services segments are expected to deliver higher volumes in the fourth quarter, contributing to a strong finish to the year. As Grant Isaac, President and COO, noted, "We are pacing our production at the market's signal, and a change in strategy would require more demand, which is too early to predict."

Strategic Developments and Partnerships

The recently announced agreement with the U.S. government to purchase Westinghouse reactors is expected to drive significant value for both Westinghouse and Cameco. This partnership strengthens Cameco's footprint in the nuclear industry and sets Westinghouse reactors as the leading technology in global nuclear deployment. The deal is seen as a stimulant for launch conditions in the United States, potentially leading to a bigger build-out of nuclear capacity. With the U.S. government's commitment to facilitate financing, Cameco is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for nuclear energy.

Valuation and Dividend

The current valuation metrics indicate a high P/E ratio, suggesting that the market has high growth expectations from Cameco. The dividend yield stands at 0.12%, with the company declaring a 2025 annual dividend of $0.24 per common share. The company's financial health is further reflected in its Net Debt / EBITDA ratio of 0.3 and ROIC of 5.43%. The EV/EBITDA ratio of 59.24 indicates that the company's enterprise value is significantly higher than its EBITDA, which may imply a high level of investor confidence in its future performance.

3. NewsRoom

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Did Cameco's (TSX:CCO) Expanded Role in Nuclear Fuel Just Reframe Its Long-Term Investment Narrative?

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Cameco (TSX:CCO): Reassessing Valuation After Strong Multi-Year Returns and Recent Momentum Pullback

Dec -06

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OKLO vs. Cameco: Which Nuclear Energy Play is a Better Value?

Dec -04

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MAX Power Announces Neil McMillan as Chairman of the Board

Dec -04

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Cameco’s (CCJ) Westinghouse Unit Poised for New Nuclear Reactor Deals

Dec -03

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Is Cameco Stock a Buy Now?

Dec -03

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Cameco Corporation (CCJ) – Among the Energy Stocks that Gained This Week

Dec -02

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Should You Buy Cameco While It's Below $110?

Dec -02

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.57%)

6. Segments

Uranium

Expected Growth: 5%

Cameco's 5% uranium growth driven by increasing nuclear power demand, driven by global decarbonization efforts, and rising uranium prices. Additionally, the company's cost reduction initiatives, operational efficiencies, and strategic partnerships contribute to its growth momentum.

Westinghouse

Expected Growth: 4%

Westinghouse's 4% growth is driven by increasing demand for nuclear energy, driven by global decarbonization efforts and rising electricity demand. Additionally, Cameco's strategic investments in Westinghouse's digitalization and operational efficiency initiatives are expected to improve profitability and drive growth.

Adjustments

Expected Growth: 3%

Cameco Corporation's 3% growth is driven by increasing uranium demand, driven by nuclear power's role in reducing carbon emissions. Strong operational performance, cost savings initiatives, and strategic partnerships also contribute to growth. Additionally, the company's diversified revenue streams, including fuel services and uranium trading, provide a stable foundation for expansion.

Fuel Services

Expected Growth: 5%

Cameco's Fuel Services segment growth is driven by increasing demand for nuclear power, uranium supply constraints, and strategic partnerships. The company's unique position in the nuclear fuel cycle, coupled with its ability to provide a range of services, including fuel manufacturing and consulting, supports its growth. Additionally, the increasing adoption of clean energy sources and government support for nuclear power further fuels growth.

Other

Expected Growth: 4%

Cameco's 4% growth is driven by increasing uranium demand, nuclear reactor restarts in Japan, and growing nuclear energy adoption in China. Additionally, the company's cost reduction initiatives, improved operational efficiency, and strategic partnerships contribute to its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Uranium

Cameco Corporation is one of the largest uranium producers in the world, providing fuel for nuclear reactors that generate clean electricity.

Fuel Services

Cameco's Fuel Services segment provides nuclear fuel cycle products and services, including fuel fabrication, uranium conversion, and nuclear waste management.

Nuclear Electricity Generation

Cameco's nuclear electricity generation segment operates nuclear power plants, generating clean electricity for the grid.

Nuclear Fuel Recycling

Cameco's nuclear fuel recycling segment provides services for the recycling of used nuclear fuel, reducing waste and recovering valuable materials.

Medical Isotopes

Cameco's medical isotopes segment produces and supplies radioisotopes for medical research, diagnostic, and therapeutic applications.

8. Cameco Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Cameco Corporation faces moderate threat from substitutes due to the availability of alternative energy sources such as solar and wind power. However, nuclear energy remains a significant player in the energy market, reducing the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Cameco Corporation's customers, primarily utilities and nuclear power plants, have limited bargaining power due to the company's dominant position in the uranium market and the lack of alternative suppliers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Cameco Corporation's suppliers, primarily mining companies, have moderate bargaining power due to the availability of alternative suppliers and the company's dependence on a few key suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry in the uranium mining industry, including significant capital requirements, regulatory hurdles, and environmental concerns.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry in the uranium mining industry is high due to the presence of several established players, including Kazatomprom and Areva, which compete fiercely for market share and contracts.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 22.65%
Debt Cost 8.28%
Equity Weight 77.35%
Equity Cost 8.58%
WACC 8.51%
Leverage 29.28%

11. Quality Control: Cameco Corporation passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Momentum: 7.5

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Quality: 4.2

Yield: 8.0

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Uranium Energy

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 2.0

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Cameco

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 0.2

Growth: 6.3

Quality: 6.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 4.0

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

126.22$

Current Price

126.22$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows