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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Centerra Gold Inc., a gold mining company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and operation of gold and copper properties in North America, Turkey, and internationally.The company explores for gold, copper, and molybdenum deposits.Its flagship projects include the 100% owned Mount Milligan gold-copper mine located in British Columbia, Canada; and the Öksüt Gold Mine located in Turkey.


The company was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on CG

Centerra Gold's recent performance was negatively driven by nearly doubling Q4 loss, which hurt the company's financials. The production setbacks, rising costs, and lower-than-expected earnings weighed on the company's results. Despite robust cash flow and liquidity, the production challenges and increasing expenses overshadowed these positives. The company's guidance for 2025 remains uncertain, adding to the investor concerns.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Centerra Gold's Q3 2025 Earnings: Robust Margins and Increased Production

Centerra Gold reported a strong financial performance in Q3 2025, driven by its robust operational performance and elevated metal prices. The company's earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.4457, significantly beating estimates of $0.2868. Revenue growth was not explicitly stated, but the company's cash flow from operations was $162 million, resulting in free cash flow of $99 million. The company's cash balance increased to $562 million, bringing total liquidity to over $960 million. With a P/E Ratio of 32.77 and an EV/EBITDA of 7.5, the market seems to be pricing in a certain level of growth, which is expected to be around 14.6% next year according to analyst estimates.

Publication Date: Nov -19

📋 Highlights
  • Robust Free Cash Flow: Generated $99 million in free cash flow Q3 2025, driven by $162 million in operational cash flow and strong metal prices.
  • Production Output: Achieved 82,000 ounces of gold and 13.4 million pounds of copper production, reflecting Oksut’s operational performance.
  • Mount Milligan Mine Life Extension: Pre-feasibility study extends mine life to 2045, with 150,000 oz gold/year and 69M lb copper/year from 2026–2042.
  • Reserve Growth: Proven/probable reserves rose 56% (4.4M oz gold) and 52% (1.7B lb copper) from year-end 2024.
  • Thompson Creek Project Progress: Restart project 29% capital-complete, with 2025 non-sustaining CapEx reaffirmed and first production targeted for mid-2027.

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance was strong, with gold and copper production in the quarter reaching almost 82,000 ounces and 13.4 million pounds, respectively. The Mount Milligan pre-feasibility study extended the life of mine by approximately 10 years to 2045, with an optimized mine plan delivering average annual production of 150,000 ounces of gold and 69 million pounds of copper from 2026 to 2042. Proven and probable reserves also increased significantly, with a 56% and 52% increase in gold and copper reserves, respectively.

Project Updates

The Thompson Creek restart project is advancing, with approximately 29% of the total capital investment complete, and is expected to start production in the second half of 2027. At Oksut, the company is conducting a life of mine optimization study to evaluate the asset's full potential, including residual leaching of the heap and expanding the pit to pursue additional mineralization. As noted during the call, if the company only does residual leach without pursuing sulfides, the capital expenditure would be very low, potentially leading to a significant return on capital.

Exploration and Growth Opportunities

The company is also exploring oxide targets in the project area and regional opportunities in Turkey to take advantage of its position at the end of the mine life. A 360-degree exploration review around the site will be conducted to ensure no opportunities are missed. The life of mine optimization study will continue to evaluate these possibilities, potentially leading to further growth and increased production.

3. NewsRoom

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Headwater Gold and Centerra Gold Sign US $25 Million Earn-In Agreement to Explore the Crane Creek Gold Project in Idaho

Dec -03

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How Analyst Views Are Shaping the Evolving Story for Centerra Gold

Dec -02

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Should You Reassess Centerra Gold After 120% Surge on Expansion News?

Dec -02

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Kenorland identifies gold-in-till anomalies at two Ontario projects

Dec -02

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Kenorland Identifies Significant Gold-In-Till Geochemical Anomalies at the Western Wabigoon and Flora Projects in Northwestern Ontario

Dec -02

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Dec -02

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Dec -02

Source: zacks.com

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (9.24%)

6. Segments

Gold

Expected Growth: 10%

Centerra Gold Inc.'s 10% growth in gold production is driven by increased ore processing rates, higher gold grades, and improved recovery rates at its Kumtor mine in Kyrgyzstan. Additionally, the company's cost savings initiatives and favorable foreign exchange rates have contributed to the growth.

Molybdenum

Expected Growth: 8%

Centerra Gold's 8% growth in Molybdenum is driven by increasing demand from the steel industry, particularly in China, coupled with supply constraints and production disruptions in major producing countries. Additionally, the company's focus on operational efficiency and cost reduction initiatives have contributed to the growth.

Copper

Expected Growth: 9%

Centerra Gold Inc.'s copper segment growth is driven by increasing gold prices, strong demand from electric vehicle and renewable energy industries, and rising production from the Mount Milligan mine. Additionally, the company's focus on cost reduction and operational efficiency improvements also contribute to the 9% growth.

Other By-product

Expected Growth: 7%

Centerra Gold's 7% growth in Other By-product segment is driven by increased copper and silver production at the Mount Milligan mine, strong gold prices, and improved operational efficiency. Additionally, the company's focus on exploration and development of new projects, such as the Öksüt mine, contributes to the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Gold

Centerra Gold Inc. is a gold mining company that produces gold from its mines in Canada, Turkey, and other countries.

Copper

Centerra Gold Inc. also produces copper as a by-product of its gold mining operations.

Silver

Some of Centerra Gold Inc.'s mines also produce silver as a by-product of gold and copper mining.

Exploration Services

Centerra Gold Inc. offers exploration services to help identify and develop new mineral deposits.

Mining Operations

Centerra Gold Inc. operates several mines around the world, producing gold, copper, and other minerals.

8. Centerra Gold Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Centerra Gold Inc. is medium due to the availability of alternative metals and minerals in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Centerra Gold Inc. is low due to the company's strong market position and limited customer concentration.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Centerra Gold Inc. is medium due to the company's dependence on a few key suppliers for equipment and services.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Centerra Gold Inc. is low due to the high barriers to entry in the gold mining industry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Centerra Gold Inc. is high due to the competitive nature of the gold mining industry, with many established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 1.43%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 98.57%
Equity Cost 9.92%
WACC 9.83%
Leverage 1.45%

11. Quality Control: Centerra Gold Inc. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Dundee Precious Metals

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 4.5

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 8.5

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Centerra Gold

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Torex Gold Resources

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 6.7

Quality: 7.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Calibre Mining

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 8.1

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Idaho Strategic Resources

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 0.0

Growth: 9.7

Quality: 8.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Sandstorm Gold

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 1.3

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 7.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

18.27$

Current Price

18.27$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows