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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Lundin Gold Inc.operates as a mining company in Canada.The company holds interests in 27 metallic mineral concessions and three construction material concessions covering an area of approximately 64,270 hectares located in Southeast Ecuador.


It primary holds interests in the Fruta del Norte gold project comprising seven concessions covering an area of approximately 5,566 hectares located near the city of Loja in Ecuador.The company was formerly known as Fortress Minerals Corp.and changed its name to Lundin Gold Inc.


in December 2014.Lundin Gold Inc.was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on LUG

Lundin Gold's recent performance has been driven by strong Q3 2025 earnings, featuring revenues of $447 million and record net income of $208 million. The company's free cash flow of $191 million was driven by gold sales of 124,911 ounces at an average realized gold price of $3,634 per ounce. Additionally, the company's Board of Directors declared quarterly cash dividends of $0.80 per share, comprised of a fixed dividend of $0.30 per share and a variable dividend of $0.50 per share. Analysts have adjusted their expectations, with a modest increase in the consensus fair value target to CA$92.17.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Lundin Gold Shines with Record Q3 2025 Earnings

Lundin Gold's financial performance in Q3 2025 was outstanding, with revenue surging 38% to $447 million, driven by a higher average realized gold price of $3,634 per ounce. The company's net income hit a record high of $208 million, up 53%, and earnings per share achieved a record high of $0.86, up 51%. The all-in sustaining cost (ASIC) margin was 71%, indicating strong operational profitability. According to Jamie Beck, the company's focus on "maximizing value at Fruta del Norte through optimization and efficiency" is yielding results.

Publication Date: Nov -16

📋 Highlights
  • Record Net Income and EPS Growth:: Net income reached $208 million (up 53%), with EPS hitting $0.86 (up 51%).
  • Strong ASIC Margin:: Achieved 71% margin with $1,036 all-in sustaining cost per ounce sold.
  • High Cash Flow Generation:: Generated $216 million in operating cash flow and $191 million in free cash flow.
  • Dividend Increase and Returns:: Declared $0.80/share dividend ($193 million total), returning $950 million in dividends to date.
  • Exploration Expansion and Promising Targets:: Drilling expanded to 120,000 meters, with encouraging porphyry systems at Trancaloma, Sandia, and Castillo.
  • Strong Cash Position and Exploration Progress:: Maintained $494 million cash balance while expanding exploration to 120,000 meters with promising porphyry targets.
  • Record Net Income and EPS Growth:: Net income hit $208 million (up 53%), with EPS at $0.86 (up 51%).
  • Strong ASIC Margin:: Achieved 71% margin with $1,036 all-in sustaining cost per ounce sold.
  • High Cash Flow Generation:: Generated $216 million in operating cash flow and $191 million in free cash flow.
  • Dividend Increase and Returns:: Declared $0.80/share dividend ($193 million total), returning $950 million in dividends to date.
  • Exploration Expansion and Promising Targets:: Expanded drilling to 120,000 meters, with encouraging porphyry systems at Trancaloma, Sandia, and Castillo.

Operational Highlights

The company produced 122,000 ounces of gold and sold 125,000 ounces during the quarter. Cash operating cost per ounce was $861, and all-in sustaining cost was $1,036 per ounce sold. Lundin Gold is on track to meet its revised guidance of 490,000 to 525,000 ounces of gold production. The company's strong cash position of $494 million provides a solid foundation for future growth.

Exploration and Growth Prospects

Lundin Gold's exploration program has been expanded to a minimum of 120,000 meters, with recent results showing promising copper-gold porphyry systems at Trancaloma, Sandia, and Castillo. The company is aggressively advancing its high-potential exploration pipeline, with FDNS conversion drilling complete and awaiting final assays for an initial reserve estimate anticipated early next year.

Valuation and Dividend

With a P/E Ratio of 31.67 and an EV/EBITDA of 19.05, Lundin Gold's valuation appears to be reflecting its strong growth prospects. The company's dividend yield is 2.63%, with a total dividend of $0.80 per share declared for the quarter. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 12.5%, which may support the company's valuation. The actual EPS of $0.86 was in line with expectations, and the company's return on equity (ROE) is an impressive 49.53%.

Outlook and Strategy

3. NewsRoom

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Why Analysts See Lundin Gold’s Story Shifting With Higher Price Targets and Gold Forecasts

Nov -29

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Is Lundin Gold’s Share Surge Justified After Expansion Announcements?

Nov -29

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Lundin Gold Posts Drill Results from Fruta del Norte Gold Mine

Nov -21

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Lundin Gold Inc (LUGDF) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Gold Production and Robust ...

Nov -21

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LUNDIN GOLD DRILLS 491.62 G/T AU OVER 5.20M; EXPLORATION CONFIRMS LARGER MINERALIZED SYSTEMS AT BOTH FDNS AND FDN EAST

Nov -21

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Shareholders Can Be Confident That Lundin Gold's (TSE:LUG) Earnings Are High Quality

Nov -14

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Why The Narrative Around Lundin Gold Is Shifting Amid Analyst Upgrades and New Discoveries

Nov -09

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Lundin Gold (TSX:LUG): Exploring Valuation After Recent Share Price Surge

Nov -08

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (3.00%)

6. Segments

Fruta del Norte

Expected Growth: 3.0%

Fruta del Norte's 3.0 growth driven by increasing gold production, rising gold prices, and efficient operations. The mine's high-grade ore and low cash costs support strong margins. Lundin Gold's focus on exploration and expansion projects, combined with a solid balance sheet, position the company for sustained growth.

7. Detailed Products

Gold

Lundin Gold Inc. is a leading gold producer with a primary focus on gold mining and exploration. The company's flagship asset is the Fruta del Norte gold mine in Ecuador.

Copper

As a by-product of gold mining, Lundin Gold Inc. also produces copper, which is used in various industrial applications.

Silver

Silver is another by-product of gold mining, and Lundin Gold Inc. produces silver as a secondary product.

Exploration Services

Lundin Gold Inc. offers exploration services to identify and develop new gold deposits, providing expertise in geology, drilling, and mining.

Mining Operations

The company provides mining operations services, including mine planning, construction, and management.

8. Lundin Gold Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Lundin Gold Inc. is medium due to the availability of alternative metals and mining companies.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Lundin Gold Inc. is low due to the company's strong market position and limited customer concentration.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Lundin Gold Inc. is medium due to the company's dependence on a few key suppliers for equipment and services.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Lundin Gold Inc. is low due to the high barriers to entry in the gold mining industry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Lundin Gold Inc. is high due to the competitive nature of the gold mining industry, with many established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 22.42%
Debt Cost 9.67%
Equity Weight 77.58%
Equity Cost 9.67%
WACC 9.67%
Leverage 28.90%

11. Quality Control: Lundin Gold Inc. passed 8 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Lundin Gold

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 1.9

Growth: 9.1

Quality: 8.6

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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B2Gold

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 7.8

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Kinross Gold

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 7.2

Quality: 8.0

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Eldorado Gold

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 6.7

Quality: 6.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Royal Gold

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 1.8

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 7.8

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Boise Cascade

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

108.16$

Current Price

108.16$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows