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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Pembina Pipeline Corporation provides transportation and midstream services for the energy industry.It operates through three segments: Pipelines, Facilities, and Marketing & New Ventures.The Pipelines segment operates conventional, oil sands and heavy oil, and transmission assets with a transportation capacity of 3.1 millions of barrels of oil equivalent per day, ground storage of 11 millions of barrels, and rail terminalling capacity of approximately 105 thousands of barrels of oil equivalent per day serving markets and basins across North America.


The Facilities segment offers infrastructure that provides customers with natural gas, condensate, and natural gas liquids (NGLs), including ethane, propane, butane, and condensate; and includes 354 thousands of barrels per day of NGL fractionation capacity, 21 millions of barrels of cavern storage capacity, and associated pipeline and rail terminalling facilities.The Marketing & New Ventures segment buys and sells hydrocarbon liquids and natural gas originating in the Western Canadian sedimentary basin and other basins.Pembina Pipeline Corporation was incorporated in 1954 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on PPL

Pembina Pipeline Corporation's recent performance has been positively driven by its strong fundamentals, integrated assets, and capital efficiency. The company's second-quarter 2025 results showed sales of CA$1.79 billion and net income of CA$417 million, with a maintained quarterly dividend of CA$0.71 per share. Analysts at Tudor, Pickering, Holt maintained a buy rating on the shares, citing a price target of C$59.00. Additionally, Pembina's recent settlement with shippers on Alliance Pipeline and regulatory approval awaited, may contribute to future growth. A $225 million subordinated note offering also closed recently.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Pembina Pipeline's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Pembina Pipeline Corporation reported a solid third quarter in 2025, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $1.034 billion, a 1% increase from the same period in the prior year. The company's earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.43, below analyst estimates of $0.91. Revenue growth was driven by higher demand on seasonal contracts on Alliance Pipeline and increased tolls on the Peace Pipeline system. The company's financial performance was in line with expectations, with the adjusted EBITDA margin remaining stable.

Publication Date: Nov -08

📋 Highlights
  • Q3 Adjusted EBITDA:: $1.034 billion, a 1% increase year-over-year.
  • 2025 Full-Year Guidance:: Tightened to $4.25–$4.35 billion, reflecting updated commodity outlook and performance.
  • PETRONAS Liquefaction Agreement:: 20-year contract for 1 million tonnes/year at Cedar LNG facility.
  • Peace Pipeline Renewals:: 50,000 barrels/day added with 10-year terms, boosting transportation revenue.
  • RFS IV Progress:: 75% completion of new Redwater fractionator and $1 billion in conventional pipeline projects for WCSB growth.

Operational Highlights

Pembina continued to execute on its strategy, signing a 20-year agreement with PETRONAS for 1 million tonnes per annum of liquefaction capacity at the Cedar LNG facility. The company also made progress on its capital projects, including the RFS IV fractionator, which is approximately 75% complete. According to Jaret Sprott, the company is working closely with its execution team to bring the project online as close as possible to the NGL season. Additionally, Pembina is developing approximately $1 billion of conventional pipeline projects to enable WCSB growth.

Guidance and Outlook

Pembina tightened its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range to $4.25 billion to $4.35 billion, reflecting year-to-date results and the current commodity price outlook. The company is confident in continued growth in the single-digit range, driven by demand growth from the oil sands, infrastructure debottlenecks, and incremental gas demand outlets. Analysts estimate revenue growth of 9.9% for 2026, indicating a positive outlook for the company.

Valuation Metrics

Using the current valuation metrics, Pembina's P/E Ratio stands at 16.13, indicating a relatively stable valuation. The EV/EBITDA ratio is 11.82, suggesting that the company's enterprise value is reasonable compared to its EBITDA. The Dividend Yield is 5.38%, providing a relatively attractive return for investors. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is 3.59, indicating a manageable debt level. These metrics suggest that Pembina's valuation is reasonable, considering its growth prospects and financial performance.

3. NewsRoom

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RBC Says New Alberta-Canada Energy Deal Could Lift Canadian Energy Infrastructure Sector

Nov -28

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Pembina Pipeline Q3 Earnings & Revenues Miss Estimates, Both Down Y/Y

Nov -11

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Earnings Miss: Pembina Pipeline Corporation Missed EPS By 31% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Nov -11

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Pembina Pipeline Making 'Measurable Progress' on Base Business, RBC Says

Nov -10

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Pembina Pipeline Corp (PBA) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges and Seizing ...

Nov -08

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Petronas Secures 20-Year Liquefaction Access to Cedar LNG

Nov -07

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Pembina Pipeline (PBA) Lags Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

Nov -06

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Pembina Pipeline: Q3 Earnings Snapshot

Nov -06

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (3.60%)

6. Segments

Marketing & New Ventures

Expected Growth: 3%

Pembina Pipeline Corporation's Marketing & New Ventures segment growth is driven by increasing demand for crude oil and natural gas transportation, strategic acquisitions, and expansion into new markets. Additionally, investments in digital infrastructure and technology enable efficient operations, while partnerships with key customers and suppliers foster long-term growth.

Pipelines

Expected Growth: 5%

Pembina Pipeline Corporation's 5% growth is driven by increasing demand for crude oil and natural gas transportation, strategic acquisitions, and expansion projects. Additionally, the company's diversified asset base, strong operational performance, and growing cash flows contribute to its growth. Furthermore, Pembina's focus on sustainability and ESG initiatives enhances its competitive position, attracting investors and supporting long-term growth.

Facilities

Expected Growth: 4%

Pembina Pipeline Corporation's 4% growth is driven by increasing demand for crude oil transportation, expansion of pipeline infrastructure, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, growth in the Montney and Duvernay regions, as well as the company's diversified revenue streams, contribute to its steady growth.

Corporate & Inter-segment Eliminations

Expected Growth: 2%

Pembina Pipeline Corporation's 2% growth in Corporate & Inter-segment Eliminations is driven by increased pipeline utilization, higher transportation volumes, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on operational efficiency and cost savings initiatives have contributed to the growth. Furthermore, the elimination of inter-segment transactions has also positively impacted the segment's performance.

7. Detailed Products

Conventional Pipelines

Pembina's conventional pipeline business transports crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas across Western Canada.

Oil Sands and Heavy Oil

Pembina's oil sands and heavy oil business provides transportation and logistics services for oil sands and heavy oil producers.

Gas Services

Pembina's gas services business provides natural gas gathering, processing, and transportation services.

Midstream and Marketing

Pembina's midstream and marketing business provides a range of services including storage, terminalling, and marketing of crude oil and natural gas liquids.

Pipeline Expansion Projects

Pembina's pipeline expansion projects involve the development of new pipeline infrastructure to meet growing demand for energy transportation.

8. Pembina Pipeline Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Pembina Pipeline Corporation operates in a highly regulated industry, which limits the threat of substitutes. However, the increasing adoption of renewable energy sources and energy storage technologies could pose a moderate threat to the company's operations.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Pembina Pipeline Corporation's customers are primarily large oil and gas companies, which have limited bargaining power due to their dependence on the company's pipeline infrastructure.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Pembina Pipeline Corporation relies on a few large suppliers for its pipeline materials and services, which gives them some bargaining power. However, the company's scale and diversification of suppliers mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

The high capital costs and regulatory hurdles associated with entering the pipeline industry make it difficult for new entrants to compete with Pembina Pipeline Corporation.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Pembina Pipeline Corporation operates in a highly competitive industry, with several large players vying for market share. The company's ability to differentiate itself through its diversified pipeline network and strong customer relationships is crucial to its success.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 41.34%
Debt Cost 5.20%
Equity Weight 58.66%
Equity Cost 11.30%
WACC 8.78%
Leverage 70.47%

11. Quality Control: Pembina Pipeline Corporation passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Western Midstream Partners

A-Score: 7.1/10

Value: 5.1

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 7.2

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 9.0

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Topaz Energy

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 3.4

Growth: 8.1

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 9.7

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Gibson Energy

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 10.0

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DT Midstream

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 3.2

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 8.3

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Plains All American Pipeline

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 7.8

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 9.0

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Pembina Pipeline

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 4.9

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

54.71$

Current Price

54.71$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows