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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Sigma Lithium Corporation engages in the exploration and development of lithium deposits in Brazil.It holds 100% interest in the Grota do Cirilo, Genipapo, Santa Clara, and São José properties comprising 27 mineral rights covering an area of approximately 191 square kilometers located in the Araçuaí and Itinga regions of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil.The company was formerly known as Sigma Lithium Resources Corporation and changed its name to Sigma Lithium Corporation in July 2021.


Sigma Lithium Corporation is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

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1.b. Last Insights on SGML

The recent 3-month performance of Sigma Lithium Corporation was negatively impacted by a decline in revenue, with Q1 2025 results showing a 5.4% decrease from the previous quarter to CA$47.7 million. This revenue lag, coupled with a lack of significant cost reductions, contributed to the company's underwhelming performance. Additionally, the appointment of a new independent board member, Junaid Jafar, in March 2025, did not seem to have a material impact on the company's short-term results.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Sigma Lithium's Resilience Shines Through in Q3 2025 Earnings

Sigma Lithium reported a significant increase in net revenues, with a 69% quarter-on-quarter and 36% year-over-year growth, driven by an optimum commercial strategy. The company's pricing increased by 33% versus the previous quarter, and margins also expanded, with the operating margin up 42% and the net margin up 67%. However, the EPS came out at -0.10399, missing estimates of 0.0275. The company's cash position is $21 million, plus $8 million of incremental trade receivables, and $29 million current cash balance.

Publication Date: Nov -26

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth:: 69% QoQ and 36% YoY revenue increase, totaling $31M in cash from sales settlements.
  • Debt Reduction:: 60% YTD reduction in short-term trade finance debt and 43% annual deleveraging achieved.
  • Operational Safety:: 787 consecutive days without lost-time injuries (TRFIR of 1.79), among the lowest globally.
  • Future Cash Flow Projections:: 2026/2027 guidance includes $132M free cash flow (AISC $560/tonne) and $270M post-Plant 2 expansion.
  • Inventory Monetization:: $33M in bids for 120K tonnes of lithium materials at $120/tonne, expected to generate pure profit post-transport costs.

Operational Highlights

The company achieved a stellar record of 0 accidents, with 787 consecutive days without accidents with lost time injury, demonstrating operational excellence and continuous cost reduction. Sigma Lithium has mastered dense media separation technology, achieving 70% recovery rates, and plans to upgrade its mining operations to increase volumes and operational speed. The plant has already restarted, and the mine is expected to resume operations within 2-3 weeks.

Growth Strategy and Guidance

Sigma Lithium expects to announce 3 offtakes still this year and 2 more next year, which will help the company achieve its growth strategy. The production and cost guidance for 2026 and 2027 demonstrate the potential for increased cash flow as production efficiency increases. With Plant 1 alone, the company expects to generate an all-in sustaining cost of $560 per tonne, representing a free cash flow generation of $132 million. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 77.3%.

Valuation and Outlook

Sigma Lithium's current valuation metrics show a P/S Ratio of 9.73 and an EV/EBITDA of -63.91. Given the expected revenue growth, the stock may be poised for a revaluation. However, the company's ROE is -46.9%, and ROIC is -6.97%, indicating that the company still has to overcome some operational challenges. With lithium prices expected to range from $1,000 to $1,100, Sigma Lithium is well-positioned as a low-cost producer.

3. NewsRoom

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Sigma Lithium (NasdaqCM:SGML) Valuation After COP30 Spotlight on Its Quintuple Zero ESG Lithium Strategy

Dec -03

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Sigma Lithium Highlights Brazil's Leadership in Sustainable Lithium at Cop30; Engages in High-Level Global Dialogues on Energy Transition, Critical Minerals and ESG Innovation

Dec -01

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Lithium Americas Shares Surge 69% in 6 Months: Should You Invest Now?

Nov -21

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Why Sigma Lithium Rallied This Week

Nov -21

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Sigma Lithium (SGML) Is Up 33.2% After Strong Q3 Results and EV Partnership Speculation—What’s Next?

Nov -18

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Albemarle Leads S&P 500 As Lithium Becomes An AI Play

Nov -17

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Albemarle Leads S&P 500 As Lithium Becomes An AI Play

Nov -17

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Sigma Lithium Corp (SGML) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Robust Revenue Growth and Strategic ...

Nov -14

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (11.47%)

6. Segments

High Grade Lithium Concentrate

Expected Growth: 11.47%

Sigma Lithium Corporation's high-grade lithium concentrate growth is driven by increasing demand for electric vehicles, renewable energy storage, and portable electronics. Strong supply agreements with key customers, expansion of production capacity, and favorable mining conditions in Brazil also contribute to the 11.47% growth.

By-product Lithium Concentrate

Expected Growth: 11.47%

Sigma Lithium Corporation's by-product lithium concentrate growth is driven by increasing demand for electric vehicles, renewable energy storage, and portable electronics. The company's strategic location in Brazil, proximity to key markets, and low-cost production process also contribute to its growth. Additionally, the rising adoption of lithium-ion batteries in emerging markets and government incentives for clean energy solutions further support the 11.47% growth.

7. Detailed Products

Lithium Concentrate

A high-grade lithium concentrate used as a raw material for the production of lithium-ion batteries, ceramics, and glass.

Lithium Hydroxide

A lithium compound used in the production of lithium-ion battery cathodes, lubricants, and pharmaceuticals.

Lithium Carbonate

A lithium compound used in the production of ceramics, glass, and pharmaceuticals.

Lithium Chloride

A lithium compound used in the production of air conditioning and refrigeration systems, as well as in the manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries.

8. Sigma Lithium Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Sigma Lithium Corporation is medium due to the availability of alternative energy storage solutions, but the company's focus on sustainable and environmentally friendly lithium production reduces the threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low due to the company's strong relationships with its customers and the lack of alternative suppliers in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is medium due to the company's dependence on a few key suppliers, but the company's strong relationships and long-term contracts mitigate the risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is high due to the growing demand for lithium and the increasing interest in sustainable energy solutions, which attracts new players to the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the competitive nature of the lithium market, with several established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 44.68%
Debt Cost 4.86%
Equity Weight 55.32%
Equity Cost 4.86%
WACC 4.86%
Leverage 80.75%

11. Quality Control: Sigma Lithium Corporation passed 1 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 0.7

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Graphex

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 8.8

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Global Atomic

A-Score: 3.0/10

Value: 7.8

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 1.0

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Sigma Lithium

A-Score: 2.9/10

Value: 4.4

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 2.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Lifezone Metals

A-Score: 2.3/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 0.4

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Bioceres Crop Solutions

A-Score: 2.1/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 1.9

Quality: 1.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

13.14$

Current Price

13.14$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows