TC Energy Corporation (TRP.TO) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

TC Energy Corporation operates as an energy infrastructure company in North America.It operates through five segments: Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines; U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines; Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines; Liquids Pipelines; and Power and Storage.The company builds and operates 93,300 km network of natural gas pipelines, which transports natural gas from supply basins to local distribution companies, power generation plants, industrial facilities, interconnecting pipelines, LNG export terminals, and other businesses.

It also has regulated natural gas storage facilities with a total working gas capacity of 535 billion cubic feet.In addition, it has approximately 4,900 km liquids pipeline system that connects Alberta crude oil supplies to refining markets in Illinois, Oklahoma, Texas, and the U.S. Gulf Coast.Further, the company owns or has interests in seven power generation facilities with a combined capacity of approximately 4,300 megawatts that are powered by natural gas and nuclear fuel sources located in Alberta, Ontario, Québec, and New Brunswick; and owns and operates approximately 118 billion cubic feet of non-regulated natural gas storage capacity in Alberta.

The company was formerly known as TransCanada Corporation and changed its name to TC Energy Corporation in May 2019.TC Energy Corporation was incorporated in 1951 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on TRP

TC Energy Corporation's recent performance has been driven by strong quarterly results, with Q2 earnings and revenues beating estimates by 5.36% and 6.15%, respectively. The company's improved earnings were supported by solid execution and asset performance, driving a higher 2025 financial outlook. Analysts at Jefferies maintained a "Hold" rating, citing balanced risks, while Tudor, Pickering, Holt maintained a "Buy" rating with a price target of C$74.00. The company's focus on US growth, LNG development, and Mexico pipeline projects is expected to drive future growth. A quarterly dividend of $0.85 per common share was declared.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	75.52
Change Percentage	-1.26%
Open	76.3
Previous Close	76.48
Market Cap ( Millions)	78505
Volume	3916085
Year High	77.73
Year Low	62.17
M A 50	74.08
M A 200	69.57

FCF Yield	1.83%
Dividend Yield	4.47%
ROE	15.36%
Debt / Equity	215.94%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	532.94%
Price To Book	2.85
Price Earnings Ratio	18.06
Price To FCF	54.56
Price To sales	6.13
EV / EBITDA	12.54

2. TC Energy's Strong Q3 2025 Earnings: A Reflection of Operational Excellence

TC Energy reported a comparable EBITDA of $2.7 billion in the third quarter, a 10% increase year-over-year, driven by a 13% growth in natural gas pipelines. The company's EPS came in at $0.778, slightly lower than the estimated $0.786. The revenue growth is expected to continue, with analysts estimating a 5.8% increase for the next year. The company's financial performance is a testament to its operational excellence, with a strong foundation in long-haul natural gas pipelines and a significant interest in nuclear power generation.

Publication Date: Nov -11

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    EBITDA Growth:
                                                Comparable EBITDA rose 10% YoY to $2.7B in Q3, with 13% growth in natural gas pipelines offsetting an 18% decline in Power and Energy Solutions.
Project Execution:
                                                $8B in assets placed into service on schedule and 15% under budget, with $5.1B in sanctioned growth projects over the last 12 months.
Nuclear Equity Income:
                                                Bruce Power’s equity income projected to double from $750M to $1.6B by 2035, driven by the Major Component Replacement program extending reactor life by 35 years.
Gas Demand Forecast:
                                                Natural gas demand forecast revised upward to a 45 Bcf/day increase by 2035, with 14 new pipeline flow records set in 2025.
Capital Efficiency:
                                                $17B project backlog with $6B in advanced development, targeting 5–7% EBITDA growth annually and a 4.75x debt-to-EBITDA leverage target by 2028.

                                

Operational Highlights

The company's project execution has improved significantly, with recent projects coming in on time and on budget. The Major Component Replacement (MCR) program at Bruce Power is a prime example, with Unit 6 achieving over 99% availability in 2024. This has resulted in increased equity income, expected to double from $750 million to $1.6 billion by 2035.

Growth Prospects

TC Energy is poised for growth, with a $17 billion project backlog and $6 billion in advanced development. The company expects to fill up its project backlog at the $6 billion level through 2030 and is exploring complementary services in high-demand power and energy solution markets. The company's 5% to 7% EBITDA growth guidance is driven by capital coming into service, rate cases, and efficiencies.

Valuation and Dividend Yield

With a P/E Ratio of 17.88 and an EV/EBITDA of 12.47, the company's valuation appears reasonable. The Dividend Yield stands at 4.51%, indicating a stable return for investors. The company's ROE is 15.36%, and the Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is 5.33, indicating a manageable debt burden.

Outlook

TC Energy's strong operational performance, coupled with its growth prospects, positions the company for continued success. The company's focus on innovation, emissions reduction, and safety is expected to drive long-term value creation. With a stable outlook and a commitment to maintaining a capital range of $6 billion to $7 billion, TC Energy is well-positioned to deliver solid growth and returns to its investors.

3. NewsRoom

National Petroleum Council urges permitting reform

Dec -03

Source:

'Tremendously risky': Alberta's pipeline pact with Ottawa no guarantee a company will build it, analysts say

Nov -27

Source:

Methanex Corporation Appoints Don Marchand To Its Board Of Directors

Nov -25

Source:

Permian Gas Wave Sparks Biggest Pipeline Buildout Since the Shale Boom

Nov -23

Source:

Has TC Energy’s 7.7% Rally Outpaced Its True Value After Asset Divestment Progress?

Nov -23

Source:

Dividend 15 Split Corp. Monthly Dividend Declaration for Class A & Preferred Share

Nov -19

Source:

Dividend 15 Split Corp. II Monthly Dividend Declaration for Class A & Preferred Share

Nov -19

Source:

TC Energy Maintained at Buy at TPH Following Presentations; Price Target at C$77.00

Nov -18

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (1.06%)

6. Segments

U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines

Expected Growth: 1.2%

The U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines segment growth of 1.2 is driven by increased demand for natural gas, driven by power generation and industrial consumption. TC Energy's strategic expansions, such as the Columbia Gas Pipeline expansion, and favorable regulatory environment also contribute to growth. Additionally, the segment benefits from TC Energy's integrated network and increasing utilization of existing assets.

Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines

Expected Growth: 0.8%

The Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines segment growth of 0.8 is driven by increased demand for natural gas, expansion of TC Energy's pipeline network, and higher tolls. The growth is also supported by the company's strategic investments in key infrastructure projects, such as the NGL pipeline expansions and the Southeast Alberta Transmission System.

Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines

Expected Growth: 1.1%

Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines growth of 1.1 driven by increased demand for cleaner energy, TC Energy's strategic expansion, government policies supporting infrastructure development, and rising exports to meet growing US and Mexican market needs.

Power and Energy Solutions

Expected Growth: 1.5%

TC Energy's Power and Energy Solutions segment growth is driven by increasing demand for renewable energy, government policies supporting clean energy, and the company's expertise in developing and operating power generation and transmission infrastructure. A growth rate of 1.5 reflects expanding investments in wind, solar, and hydroelectric power, as well as opportunities in energy storage and grid modernization.

Corporate

Expected Growth: 0.5%

TC Energy Corporation's growth is driven by its diversified portfolio of energy infrastructure, including pipelines, power generation, and storage. The company's strategic investments in renewable energy and expansion into new markets have contributed to its stable growth of 0.5. Strong financial management and operational efficiency have also supported this growth.

7. Detailed Products

Natural Gas Pipelines

TC Energy Corporation operates one of the largest natural gas pipeline networks in North America, transporting clean-burning natural gas to heat homes, fuel industries, and generate electricity.

Liquids Pipelines

TC Energy's liquids pipelines transport crude oil, condensate, and other petroleum products from production areas to refineries and markets.

Power Generation

TC Energy generates electricity from a diverse portfolio of power plants, including natural gas-fired, wind, and hydroelectric facilities.

Energy Storage

TC Energy's energy storage facilities provide a critical link between energy supply and demand, helping to balance the grid and ensure a reliable supply of energy.

Coastal GasLink Pipeline

The Coastal GasLink Pipeline is a 670-kilometer pipeline that will transport natural gas from the Dawson Creek area to the LNG Canada liquefaction facility in Kitimat, British Columbia.

Keystone Pipeline

The Keystone Pipeline is a 4,324-kilometer pipeline that transports crude oil from Hardisty, Alberta to refineries in the United States.

8. TC Energy Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

TC Energy Corporation operates in the energy sector, which has few substitutes. However, the increasing adoption of renewable energy sources and energy-efficient technologies poses a moderate threat to the company.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

TC Energy Corporation's customers, primarily utilities and industrial companies, have limited bargaining power due to the company's diversified customer base and long-term contracts.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

TC Energy Corporation's suppliers, primarily pipeline operators and energy producers, have moderate bargaining power due to the company's dependence on them for raw materials and transportation services.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants in the energy sector is low due to high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The energy sector is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share. TC Energy Corporation faces intense rivalry from other pipeline operators and energy companies.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	68.16%
Debt Cost	7.06%
Equity Weight	31.84%
Equity Cost	7.64%
WACC	7.24%
Leverage	214.05%

11. Quality Control: TC Energy Corporation passed 0 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Deb

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Inefficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Enbridge

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 4.2

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

TC Energy

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 3.1

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Kinder Morgan

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Cheniere Energy

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 8.8

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

ONEOK

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 5.5

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Targa Resources

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 2.9

Growth: 6.3

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

17.53%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

7.24%

TC Energy Corporation - CA87807B1076

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on TRP

1.c. Company Highlights

Less Volatile

Higher Yield

Lower Growth

Earnings Beats

Revenues Beats

Expensive

Strong Momentum

Earnings Miss

Revenues Miss

2. TC Energy's Strong Q3 2025 Earnings: A Reflection of Operational Excellence

Operational Highlights

Growth Prospects

Valuation and Dividend Yield

Outlook

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (1.06%)

6. Segments

U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines

Expected Growth: 1.2%

Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines

Expected Growth: 0.8%

Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines

Expected Growth: 1.1%

Power and Energy Solutions

Expected Growth: 1.5%

Corporate

Expected Growth: 0.5%

7. Detailed Products

Natural Gas Pipelines

Liquids Pipelines

Power Generation

Energy Storage

Coastal GasLink Pipeline

Keystone Pipeline

8. TC Energy Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: TC Energy Corporation passed 0 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

75.52$

Current Price

75.52$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA