Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU.TO) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Tourmaline Oil Corp.acquires, explores for, develops, and produces oil and natural gas properties in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin.It holds interests in properties located in the Alberta Deep Basin, Northeast British Columbia Montney, and the Peace River High Triassic oil complex.

The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on TOU

Tourmaline Oil Corp.'s recent performance was negatively impacted by a revenue miss, falling 12% short of analyst estimates. This shortfall was a significant blow to investor confidence, particularly given the company's strong production and reserve growth. The price target was lowered to C$85 from C$95 by Scotiabank, indicating a decrease in investor optimism. Furthermore, INPLAY OIL CP's upcoming Q1 results are expected to disappoint, with Wall Street anticipating earnings growth that may not materialize.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	65.5
Change Percentage	2.09%
Open	64.25
Previous Close	64.16
Market Cap ( Millions)	25349
Volume	2760620
Year High	70.83
Year Low	55.4
M A 50	61.59
M A 200	62.45

FCF Yield	2.14%
Dividend Yield	4.27%
ROE	9.67%
Debt / Equity	9.71%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	46.49%
Price To Book	1.5
Price Earnings Ratio	16.63
Price To FCF	46.78
Price To sales	5.78
EV / EBITDA	7.83

2. Transcript Summary

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3. NewsRoom

Is Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TSE:TOU) Trading At A 23% Discount?

Dec -02

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Weak Statutory Earnings May Not Tell The Whole Story For Tourmaline Oil (TSE:TOU)

Nov -12

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Tourmaline Oil Corp (TRMLF) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Production Amid Cash Flow ...

Nov -06

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Tourmaline Oil Maintained at Buy at TPH Following Q3 Results; Price Target at C$77.00

Nov -06

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TSX Value Picks That May Be Trading Below Their Worth In November 2025

Nov -06

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More Canadian natural gas headed to Europe as Tourmaline inks supply deal with British Gas owner

Nov -06

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TOURMALINE DELIVERS STRONG LIQUIDS GROWTH IN THE THIRD QUARTER, DECLARES SPECIAL DIVIDEND, UPDATES COST SAVING INITIATIVES, ANNOUNCES NEW GAS STORAGE ACCESS IN ALBERTA AND LNG CONTRACTS

Nov -05

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3 TSX Stocks That May Be Trading Below Their Estimated Value In October 2025

Oct -31

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (11.21%)

6. Segments

Natural Gas

Expected Growth: 12%

Tourmaline Oil Corp.'s 12% natural gas growth is driven by increased production from its Alberta Deep Basin and BC Montney assets, improved well productivity, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on low-cost operations, efficient drilling, and optimized well completions contribute to its growth momentum.

Condensate

Expected Growth: 10%

Tourmaline Oil Corp.'s condensate growth is driven by its strategic focus on high-margin, liquids-rich natural gas plays in the Montney and Deep Basin. The company's low-cost operations, efficient drilling and completion techniques, and strong hedging program have enabled it to maintain a high level of capital discipline, while its large land position and multi-year drilling inventory provide a solid foundation for continued growth.

Natural Gas Liquids

Expected Growth: 11%

Tourmaline Oil Corp.'s 11% growth in Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) is driven by increased production from its Alberta and BC assets, improved pricing due to strong demand and limited pipeline capacity, and strategic hedging. Additionally, the company's focus on low-cost operations and efficient drilling practices have contributed to the growth.

Royalties

Expected Growth: 8%

Tourmaline Oil Corp.'s 8% royalty growth is driven by increased oil and gas production, successful drilling programs, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, improved operational efficiencies, higher commodity prices, and a favorable regulatory environment contribute to the growth. Furthermore, the company's focus on low-cost, high-margin operations and its strong balance sheet enable it to invest in growth initiatives.

Oil

Expected Growth: 13%

Tourmaline Oil Corp.'s 13% growth is driven by increased production from its Alberta and BC assets, improved operational efficiencies, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on low-cost, high-margin production and its strong balance sheet have enabled it to capitalize on favorable commodity prices, contributing to its robust growth.

Marketing Revenue

Expected Growth: 14%

Tourmaline Oil Corp.'s 14% marketing revenue growth is driven by increased production volumes, higher realized oil and gas prices, and strategic marketing agreements. Additionally, the company's focus on low-cost operations, efficient transportation, and diversified market access have contributed to the growth. Furthermore, Tourmaline's ability to capitalize on market opportunities and optimize its product mix has also supported revenue expansion.

Processing

Expected Growth: 9%

Tourmaline Oil Corp.'s 9% growth is driven by increased production from its Alberta and BC assets, improved operational efficiencies, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on low-cost, high-margin production and its strong balance sheet have enabled it to capitalize on favorable commodity prices, further fueling growth.

Power

Expected Growth: 7%

Tourmaline Oil Corp.'s 7% growth is driven by increased production from its Alberta and BC assets, improved operational efficiencies, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on low-cost, high-margin production and its strong balance sheet have enabled it to capitalize on favorable commodity prices, further fueling growth.

Other

Expected Growth: 6%

Tourmaline Oil Corp's 6% growth is driven by its strategic acquisitions, increased production from existing assets, and successful exploration activities. Additionally, the company's focus on cost reduction and operational efficiencies has enabled it to maintain a low-cost structure, further supporting its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Crude Oil

Tourmaline Oil Corp. produces high-quality crude oil from its oil-rich assets in Western Canada.

Natural Gas

Tourmaline Oil Corp. extracts natural gas from its vast reserves in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin.

Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)

Tourmaline Oil Corp. produces NGLs, including ethane, propane, and butane, as a byproduct of natural gas processing.

Condensate

Tourmaline Oil Corp. produces condensate, a light, sweet oil, from its natural gas processing operations.

8. Tourmaline Oil Corp.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Tourmaline Oil Corp. operates in the oil and gas industry, which has few substitutes. However, the increasing focus on renewable energy sources and electric vehicles may pose a threat to the company's operations.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Tourmaline Oil Corp. sells its products to a diverse range of customers, including refineries, petrochemical plants, and other industrial users. The company's customers have limited bargaining power due to the lack of alternative suppliers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Tourmaline Oil Corp. relies on a few key suppliers for its drilling and extraction operations. While the company has some bargaining power due to its size and scale, suppliers may still exert some influence over prices and delivery terms.

Threat Of New Entrants

The oil and gas industry has significant barriers to entry, including high capital costs, regulatory hurdles, and technical expertise. New entrants would face significant challenges in competing with established players like Tourmaline Oil Corp.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The oil and gas industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share. Tourmaline Oil Corp. faces intense rivalry from other companies, which may lead to downward pressure on prices and profit margins.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	7.31%
Debt Cost	4.26%
Equity Weight	92.69%
Equity Cost	10.87%
WACC	10.39%
Leverage	7.89%

11. Quality Control: Tourmaline Oil Corp. passed 6 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Inefficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peyto Exploration

A-Score: 7.0/10

Value: 5.7

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

ARC Resources

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 6.1

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 7.5

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Black Stone Minerals

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 9.0

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Whitecap Resources

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 5.7

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Tourmaline Oil

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 4.5

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Civitas Resources

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 9.3

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

22.03%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

10.39%

Tourmaline Oil Corp. - CA89156V1067

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on TOU

1.c. Company Highlights

Higher Yield

Higher Growth

Better Quality

Earnings Miss

Revenues Beats

Revenues Miss

Expensive

Less Volatile

Earnings Beats

2. Transcript Summary

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (11.21%)

6. Segments

Natural Gas

Expected Growth: 12%

Condensate

Expected Growth: 10%

Natural Gas Liquids

Expected Growth: 11%

Royalties

Expected Growth: 8%

Oil

Expected Growth: 13%

Marketing Revenue

Expected Growth: 14%

Processing

Expected Growth: 9%

Power

Expected Growth: 7%

Other

Expected Growth: 6%

7. Detailed Products

Crude Oil

Natural Gas

Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)

Condensate

8. Tourmaline Oil Corp.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Tourmaline Oil Corp. passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

65.5$

Current Price

65.5$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA