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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Stadler Rail AG, through its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of trains in Switzerland, Germany, Austria, Western and Eastern Europe, the Americas, the CIS countries, and internationally.It operates through two segments, Rolling Stock; and Service and Components.The company's Rolling Stock segment manufactures high-speed and intercity trains, suburban and regional transport trains, passenger coaches, light rails, trams, and metros locomotives, as well as city transport and tailor-made vehicles.


Its Service and Component segment provides modernization and revision, spare parts, vehicle repair, upgrading and overhauling, and maintenance services; and supplies vehicle components, such as car bodies or bogies.The company was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Bussnang, Switzerland.

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1.b. Last Insights on SRAIL

Stadler Rail AG's recent performance was impacted by disappointing earnings, with investors expressing discontent. A closer look reveals that the company's financials may be under pressure. According to recent analysis, weak earnings may only be part of the story. Additionally, concerns around profitability and potentially unsustainable financials have been raised. The company's latest earnings release sparked worries, with some analysts questioning the stock's prospects. A recent rating downgrade by (source) further exacerbated concerns. No share buyback program has been announced.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Transcript Summary

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3. NewsRoom

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Switzerland Slams the Door on Billionaire Tax--And Investors Just Took Notice

Dec -01

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Stadler Rail's (VTX:SRAIL) Weak Earnings May Only Reveal A Part Of The Whole Picture

Sep -04

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Liebherr delivers first batch of HVAC systems to Stadler Rail

Jul -25

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Stadler gains $500m contract for new train control system

Dec -06

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Stadler wins $215m rolling stock contract

Nov -29

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Stadler Rail AG's Dividend Analysis

May -24

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Continental (ETR:CON) investors are sitting on a loss of 46% if they invested five years ago

Apr -17

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Should You Be Impressed By VEON Ltd.'s (NASDAQ:VEON) ROE?

Apr -13

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (9.24%)

6. Segments

Rolling Stock

Expected Growth: 9%

Stadler Rail AG's Rolling Stock segment growth is driven by increasing demand for sustainable transportation, government investments in rail infrastructure, and rising need for efficient logistics. Additionally, Stadler's innovative products, such as battery-powered trains, and strategic partnerships contribute to its growth.

Service & Components

Expected Growth: 11%

Stadler Rail AG's Service & Components segment growth of 11% is driven by increasing demand for rail maintenance and refurbishment services, expansion into new markets, and a growing trend towards outsourcing of maintenance activities by rail operators. Additionally, the company's focus on digitalization and automation of maintenance processes is also contributing to the growth.

Signalling

Expected Growth: 8%

Stadler Rail AG's 8% growth is driven by increasing demand for sustainable transportation, government investments in rail infrastructure, and the company's strategic expansion into emerging markets. Additionally, Stadler's focus on innovative rolling stock solutions, such as battery-electric and hybrid trains, is attracting environmentally conscious customers, further fueling growth.

7. Detailed Products

Double-Decker Trains

Stadler Rail AG designs and manufactures double-decker trains for commuter and regional rail services, offering high-capacity transportation solutions.

Electric Multiple Units (EMUs)

Stadler Rail AG's EMUs are designed for high-speed and regional rail services, offering reliable and efficient transportation solutions.

Diesel Multiple Units (DMUs)

Stadler Rail AG's DMUs are designed for regional and rural rail services, offering flexible and reliable transportation solutions.

Tram-Trains

Stadler Rail AG's tram-trains are designed for urban and suburban rail services, offering flexible and efficient transportation solutions.

Locomotives

Stadler Rail AG designs and manufactures locomotives for freight and passenger rail services, offering reliable and efficient transportation solutions.

Rail Service and Maintenance

Stadler Rail AG offers comprehensive rail service and maintenance solutions, ensuring optimal performance and reliability of rail fleets.

Rail Engineering and Consulting

Stadler Rail AG provides rail engineering and consulting services, offering expertise in rail system design, development, and implementation.

8. Stadler Rail AG's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Stadler Rail AG is moderate, as there are alternative modes of transportation available, but the company's focus on rail transportation provides some protection.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low, as Stadler Rail AG is a leading manufacturer of rail vehicles and has a strong market position, giving it an upper hand in negotiations with customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is moderate, as Stadler Rail AG relies on a network of suppliers for components and materials, but the company's size and market position give it some negotiating power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low, as the rail industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles, making it difficult for new companies to enter the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high, as Stadler Rail AG operates in a competitive market with several established players, and the company must continually innovate and improve its products to maintain its market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 46.54%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 53.46%
Equity Cost 6.52%
WACC 5.32%
Leverage 87.07%

11. Quality Control: Stadler Rail AG passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Bouygues

A-Score: 6.9/10

Value: 8.2

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 3.7

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
FNM

A-Score: 6.8/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 8.0

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 5.6

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Danieli

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 2.5

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Getlink

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 1.8

Growth: 7.3

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 3.8

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Alstom

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 3.3

Yield: 0.6

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Stadler Rail

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 5.1

Growth: 2.8

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 2.5

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

19.36$

Current Price

19.36$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows