Bavarian Nordic A/S (BAVA.CO) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Bavarian Nordic A/S develops, manufactures, and commercializes life-saving vaccines.The company offers non-replicating smallpox and monkeypox vaccines under the IMVAMUNE, IMVANEX, and JYNNEOS names; rabies vaccine for human use under the Rabipur/RabAvert name; tick-borne encephalitis vaccine under the Encepur name; and Ebola vaccine under the MVABEA name.It is also developing MVA-BN (freeze-dried) that has completed Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of smallpox; MVA-BN RSV, which is in Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of respiratory syncytial virus; ABNCoV2 that has completed Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2; and TAEK-VAC, which is in Phase I/II clinical trial for treatment of advanced HER2 and brachyury-expressing cancers.

It has license and collaboration agreement with AdaptVac; and license agreements with National Cancer Institute and Public Health Service.It operates in the United States, Germany, Belgium, France, Canada, the United Kingdom, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, Australia, Switzerland, and internationally.Bavarian Nordic A/S was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Hellerup, Denmark.

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1.b. Last Insights on BAVA

Negative drivers behind Bavarian Nordic A/S's recent performance include: Manufacturing challenges and market uncertainties, which have impacted revenue and EBITDA growth. The company's Public Preparedness business has been affected by the mpox vaccine orders, which while driving higher revenues, have also created supply chain complexities. Additionally, the company's Travel Health business has faced strong competition, leading to a decline in growth. Furthermore, the company's share buy-back program, which was completed in January 2025, has not had a significant impact on the company's performance. The company's pipeline programs, such as Lyme disease and Epstein-Barr Virus (EBV), are still in the early stages and have not yet contributed to revenue growth.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	190.35
Change Percentage	-0.78%
Open	191.95
Previous Close	191.85
Market Cap ( Millions)	14899
Volume	165829
Year High	244.8
Year Low	123.3
M A 50	214.53
M A 200	194.19

FCF Yield	-2.91%
Dividend Yield	0.00%
ROE	12.45%
Debt / Equity	1.13%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	-51.24%
Price To Book	1.27
Price Earnings Ratio	10.78
Price To FCF	-34.35
Price To sales	2.31
EV / EBITDA	6.53

2. Bavarian Nordic's Q3 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Bavarian Nordic reported a robust financial performance for the first 9 months of 2025, with total revenues reaching DKK 4.8 billion, a 32% increase compared to the same period last year. The company's EBITDA margin stood at 31%, with an EBIT of DKK 1.2 billion. The actual EPS came out at '4.5', significantly beating estimates at '1.9'. The strong revenue growth was driven by the Travel Health business, which saw a 23% increase in sales, and the Public Preparedness segment, which reached DKK 3.1 billion, exceeding the annual base business of DKK 1.5-2 billion.

Publication Date: Nov -30

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Revenue Surge:
                                                Total revenues hit DKK 4.8 billion for 9M2025, 32% YoY growth, with EBITDA margin at 31%.
Travel Health Growth:
                                                Sales rose 23% YoY, driven by rabies/TBE vaccines and market share gains in the US and Germany.
Vimkunya Progress:
                                                Chikungunya vaccine generated DKK 42 million in 9 months, tracking toward DKK 75 million annual guidance.
Public Preparedness Surge:
                                                Revenue jumped to DKK 3.1 billion, exceeding DKK 1.5-2 billion base, fueled by US government contracts.
Strong Cash Position:
                                                Generated DKK 500 million cash flow, ending with DKK 3 billion cash, while securing DKK 1.1 billion 2026 order book.

                                

Segmental Performance

The Travel Health business performed well, driven by strong sales of rabies and tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) vaccines, with market share gains in the US and Germany. The chikungunya vaccine, Vimkunya, launched earlier this year, generated DKK 42 million in sales after 9 months, on track to meet the guidance of DKK 75 million for the first launch year. Public Preparedness revenue was driven by government contracts, including a large order from the US government.

Guidance and Outlook

The company has refined its guidance, with total revenues expected to reach around DKK 6 billion, at the lower end of the previous range. The company has secured contracts for next year totaling DKK 1.1 billion for Public Preparedness. The Travel Health guidance remains at DKK 2.750 billion, with a seasonal fluctuation in vaccine sales. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at -11.4%, indicating a potential slowdown in growth.

Valuation Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of 10.46, P/B Ratio of 1.24, and EV/EBITDA of 6.32, the company's valuation appears reasonable. The ROE stands at 12.45%, indicating a decent return on equity. The company's cash position is strong, with a cash balance of close to DKK 3 billion, and a positive cash flow of DKK 500 million for the period. The order book worth DKK 1.1 billion for 2026 provides visibility on future revenues.

Future Prospects

The company is investing in its pipeline, including a trial for a new MVA cell line, post-marketing commitments for chikungunya, and early-stage projects for Lyme and EBV. The R&D phasing for Vimkunya may slip into next year, potentially impacting the EBITDA margin positively this year. The company's priority is to pay back milestone payments to GSK and Emergent, invest in the business, and then consider returning money to shareholders.

3. NewsRoom

Bavarian Nordic to Launch Share Buy-back Program of up to DKK 500 Million

Dec -02

Source:

Should You Reassess Bavarian Nordic After Vaccine Pipeline and Share Price Drop?

Nov -28

Source:

Bavarian Nordic to Host a Shareholder Information Meeting on December 11, 2025 in Copenhagen

Nov -26

Source:

Bavarian Nordic AS (BVNKF) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth Amid ...

Nov -14

Source:

Bavarian Nordic Announces Interim Results for the First Nine Months of 2025

Nov -14

Source:

Bavarian Nordic Announces Changes to the Board of Directors

Nov -13

Source:

Bavarian Nordic (CPSE:BAVA): Assessing Valuation After Recent Share Price Volatility

Nov -11

Source:

Bavarian Nordic Announces Major Shareholder Notification from Morgan Stanley

Nov -10

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (9.95%)

6. Segments

Life-Saving Vaccines

Expected Growth: 9.95%

Bavarian Nordic A/S's life-saving vaccines segment growth is driven by increasing demand for immunization against infectious diseases, government investments in public health infrastructure, and the company's strong R&D pipeline, resulting in a 9.95% growth rate. Additionally, partnerships with global health organizations and expanding distribution channels in emerging markets contribute to the segment's rapid expansion.

7. Detailed Products

IMVANEX

A smallpox vaccine approved in Canada for active immunization against smallpox disease in persons 18 years of age and older.

IMVAMUNE

A smallpox vaccine approved in the European Union for active immunization against smallpox disease in persons 18 years of age and older.

MVA-BN

A vaccine candidate against COVID-19, currently in Phase 2 development.

BN-Polio

A vaccine candidate against polio, currently in preclinical development.

BN-RSV

A vaccine candidate against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), currently in preclinical development.

BN-HBV

A vaccine candidate against hepatitis B, currently in preclinical development.

8. Bavarian Nordic A/S's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Bavarian Nordic A/S is moderate due to the presence of alternative cancer treatments and vaccines. However, the company's focus on novel immunotherapies and vaccines may reduce the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low for Bavarian Nordic A/S, as the company's products are primarily sold to healthcare providers and governments, which have limited negotiating power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is moderate for Bavarian Nordic A/S, as the company relies on a few key suppliers for raw materials and manufacturing services. However, the company's strong relationships with suppliers mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is high for Bavarian Nordic A/S, as the biotechnology industry is highly competitive and new companies are emerging with innovative technologies and products.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high for Bavarian Nordic A/S, as the company operates in a highly competitive industry with many established players and new entrants vying for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	0.59%
Debt Cost	10.40%
Equity Weight	99.41%
Equity Cost	10.58%
WACC	10.58%
Leverage	0.60%

11. Quality Control: Bavarian Nordic A/S passed 7 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Bavarian Nordic

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 9.0

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

MedinCell

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 7.0

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Galapagos

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Compugen

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 7.4

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Kuros Biosciences

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 6.9

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

MediWound

A-Score: 2.9/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 3.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

64.47%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

10.58%

Bavarian Nordic A/S - DK0015998017

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on BAVA

1.c. Company Highlights

Higher Growth

Better Quality

Stable Momentum

Earnings Miss

Revenues Miss

Medium Volatility

Earnings Beats

Average Quality

Strong Momentum

Average Yield

Revenues Beats

Cheaper

Fairly Valued

2. Bavarian Nordic's Q3 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Segmental Performance

Guidance and Outlook

Valuation Metrics

Future Prospects

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (9.95%)

6. Segments

Life-Saving Vaccines

Expected Growth: 9.95%

7. Detailed Products

IMVANEX

IMVAMUNE

MVA-BN

BN-Polio

BN-RSV

BN-HBV

8. Bavarian Nordic A/S's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Bavarian Nordic A/S passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

190.35$

Current Price

190.35$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA