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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Valneva SE, a specialty vaccine company, focuses on the development and commercialization of prophylactic vaccines for infectious diseases with unmet needs.Its commercial vaccines for travelers include IXIARO, an inactivated Vero cell culture-derived Japanese encephalitis vaccine indicated for active immunization against Japanese encephalitis; DUKORAL, an oral vaccine for the prevention of diarrhea caused by Vibrio cholera and/or heat-labile toxin producing Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli bacterium; and VLA2001, a vaccine candidate against SARS-CoV-2.The company also develops VLA15, a vaccine candidate that has completed Phase II clinical trial against Borrelia; and VLA1553, a vaccine candidate, which is in Phase III clinical trial against the chikungunya virus.


It sells its products in the United States, Canada, Germany, Austria, Nordics, the United Kingdom, other European countries, and internationally.Valneva SE has collaborations with Pfizer, Inc.to co-develop and commercialize its Lyme disease vaccine; and Instituto Butantan for the development, manufacturing, and marketing of single-shot chikungunya vaccine.


The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Saint-Herblain, France.

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1.b. Last Insights on VLA

Valneva SE's recent performance has been driven by positive Phase 3 study results for its IXCHIQ vaccine, which boosted confidence in the company's pipeline. The company's preliminary unaudited 2024 revenue and cash report showed a 13% year-over-year growth in sales revenue and a strong year-end cash position of €168.3 million, indicating a solid financial foundation. Furthermore, the company's 2025 outlook reflects solid revenue growth and positive commercial cash flows, which will support strategic R&D investments.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Valneva's 9-Month Results: Revenue Growth and Strategic Investments

Valneva reported total revenues of EUR 127 million for the 9-month period, representing a substantial growth of 9% despite headwinds from geopolitical and IXCHIQ perspectives. Product sales reached EUR 119.4 million, a 6.2% increase from the prior year, driven by IXIARO sales growth of 12.5% to EUR 74.3 million. The company's gross margin on commercial products excluding IXCHIQ stood at 57.2%, with IXIARO and DUKORAL generating gross margins of 63.2% and 52.3%, respectively. The reported EPS was -0.13, beating estimates of -0.14023. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 12.2%.

Publication Date: Nov -23

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth: Total revenues reached EUR 127 million (+9% YoY) for the first nine months of 2025.
  • Cash Position: Cash reserves increased to EUR 143.5 million, driven by debt refinancing and ATM net proceeds.
  • IXIARO Sales Surge: IXIARO sales jumped 12.5% to EUR 74.3 million, fueled by U.S. DoD and European demand.
  • Adjusted EBITDA Deficit: H1 2025 adjusted EBITDA at -EUR 37.7 million, reflecting R&D costs for Shigella vaccine and IXCHIQ Phase IV.

Financial Performance and Cash Position

Valneva significantly reduced its operating cash burn, resulting in a cash position of more than EUR 140 million, including net proceeds from ATM transactions and debt refinancing. The company's cash at September 30 was reported at EUR 143.5 million, with cash used in operating activities at EUR 28.4 million. As Thomas Lingelbach stated, "We significantly reduced our operating cash burn, resulting in a cash position of more than EUR 140 million."

Business Highlights and Pipeline Updates

Key business highlights included responding to unmet medical needs on La Réunion and Mayotte, supplying DUKORAL for a cholera outbreak in Mayotte, and finalizing the new IXIARO U.S. Department of Defense contract. The company is also progressing with its Lyme vaccine candidate, with Pfizer in control of the Phase III process and aiming for an early readout.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

Valneva's current valuation metrics indicate a P/S Ratio of 3.3 and an EV/EBITDA of -16.55. The company's ROE stands at -35.27%, and ROIC at -13.1%. With expected revenue growth of 12.2% next year, investors will be watching the company's progress on its pipeline assets, including IXCHIQ and VLA15. The confirmed financial guidance for 2025, with product sales expected to reach EUR 155 million to EUR 170 million, provides a positive outlook for the company's growth prospects.

3. NewsRoom

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Valneva trims R&D footprint by shutting French facility

Nov -27

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Valneva to Further Consolidate its Operations in France

Nov -26

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Valneva Shares Rise on Positive Data from Lyme Disease Vaccine Study

Nov -26

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Valneva Announces Positive Final Phase 2 Results for Lyme Disease Vaccine Candidate

Nov -26

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Valneva SE (INRLF) Nine Months 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Revenue Growth Amid Operational ...

Nov -20

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Valneva misses revenue estimates, reaffirms guidance; stock jumps

Nov -20

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RoboMarkets expands trading opportunities with over 1,300 additional US stocks and ETFs

Nov -20

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Valneva Reports Nine-Month 2025 Financial Results and Provides Corporate Updates

Nov -20

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.47%)

6. Segments

Development and Commercialization of Prophylactic Vaccines

Expected Growth: 10.47%

Valneva SE's 10.47% growth in prophylactic vaccines development and commercialization is driven by increasing demand for infectious disease prevention, advancements in vaccine technology, strategic partnerships, and expanding geographic presence. Additionally, growing awareness of vaccine importance, government initiatives, and rising healthcare expenditure contribute to this growth.

7. Detailed Products

IXIARO/JESPECT

A vaccine against Japanese Encephalitis (JE), a serious and potentially life-threatening disease.

DUKORAL

An oral vaccine against cholera and diarrhea caused by E. coli, a common cause of travelers' diarrhea.

VLA15

A vaccine candidate against Lyme disease, a bacterial infection spread by ticks.

8. Valneva SE's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Valneva SE operates in the vaccine industry, where substitutes are limited. However, the company faces competition from other vaccine manufacturers, which could lead to a moderate threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Valneva SE's customers are primarily governments and healthcare organizations, which have limited bargaining power due to the company's specialized vaccine products.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Valneva SE relies on a few key suppliers for raw materials and services, which could lead to a moderate bargaining power of suppliers. However, the company's diversified supply chain mitigates this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

The vaccine industry has high barriers to entry, including significant research and development costs, regulatory hurdles, and manufacturing complexities, making it difficult for new entrants to join the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The vaccine industry is highly competitive, with several established players competing for market share. Valneva SE faces intense rivalry from companies like GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi, and Pfizer.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 58.36%
Debt Cost 8.13%
Equity Weight 41.64%
Equity Cost 8.13%
WACC 8.13%
Leverage 140.14%

11. Quality Control: Valneva SE passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Sol-Gel Technologies

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 0.0

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Valneva

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 2.2

Quality: 3.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 0.0

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Oxford Biomedica

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Value: 6.4

Growth: 2.0

Quality: 3.1

Yield: 0.0

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Volatility: 1.7

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InflaRx

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 3.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 0.0

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Exscientia

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 2.2

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 3.3

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Moolec Science

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 7.8

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 2.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 0.0

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

3.82$

Current Price

3.82$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows