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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Central Asia Metals plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a base metals producer.The company produces copper, zinc, silver, and lead.It owns a 100% interest in the Kounrad solvent extraction- electrowinning operation located near the city of Balkhash in central Kazakhstan; and a 100% interest in the Sasa mine located in north eastern Macedonia.


The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

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1.b. Last Insights on CAML

Central Asia Metals' recent performance was negatively impacted by weak fundamentals, with revenues declining 2.4% to $99.5m in the first half of 2025. The company's earnings per share (EPS) also lagged expectations. Furthermore, the UK market's turbulence, fueled by weak trade data from China, likely affected investor sentiment. Additionally, the company's lack of progress in addressing its fundamentals may have raised concerns among investors, potentially leading to a reassessment of its valuation.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Central Asia Metals Delivers Solid H1 2025 Results

Central Asia Metals reported revenue of $99.5M and EBITDA of $39.9M, representing a 40% margin, driven by lower treatment charges and a favorable Kazakh tenge devaluation. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.03883, below analyst estimates of $0.08013. The company declared a 4.5p dividend and announced a $10M share buyback, totaling $21M in shareholder returns.

Publication Date: Sep -28

📋 Highlights
  • Production & Safety:: Kounrad produced 6,218 tonnes of copper; Sasa delivered 8,692 tonnes zinc/12,613 tonnes lead, with 0 lost time injuries.
  • Financial Performance:: Revenue totaled $99.5M, EBITDA of $39.9M (40% margin), driven by 40% lower treatment charges and Kazakh tenge devaluation savings.
  • Shareholder Returns:: 4.5p dividend and $10M share buyback announced, maintaining $400M cumulative returns since IPO, with $47.7M cash reserves post-H1.
  • Cost & Currency Effects:: Cost of sales rose 14% ($7M) due to higher concession fees, wages, and depreciation; admin costs surged 24% ($3M) from BD and exploration.
  • Capital Expenditure:: $7.4M spent on sustaining projects, $6.3M for Sasa tailings upgrades, and $1.1M for Kounrad anode replacements, with 2025 guidance at $18–21M.

Operational Highlights

Kounrad produced 6,218 tonnes of copper, while Sasa delivered 8,692 tonnes of zinc and 12,613 tonnes of lead, with zero lost time injuries recorded across both operations. Kounrad’s solar plant now meets 17% of its power needs, and Sasa achieved 60% dry stack tailings placement, progressing toward 70% by 2026.

Financial Performance

Revenue was supported by a 3% increase in copper prices, while treatment charges fell 40%, resulting in a $3M saving. Cost of sales rose 14% due to concession fee hikes, wage increases, and depreciation from new tailings infrastructure. The company maintained a strong balance sheet with $47.7M in cash reserves, bolstered by $18.7M from the sale of New World Resources shares and a $1.6M break fee.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/E Ratio of 6.91 and a Dividend Yield of 6.41%, the stock appears to offer attractive value. The company’s EV/EBITDA ratio stands at 2.65, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to its earnings. As the company aims to revert to a 30-50% free cash flow dividend policy, investors can expect sustained returns. Analysts estimate revenue growth at 3.8% for next year, suggesting a stable outlook.

Operational Challenges and Opportunities

Sasa’s production faced challenges due to lower ore grades and variable geology, prompting a strategic review and drilling to improve planning. The company is focused on optimizing mining rates and addressing operational costs, expecting improvements by late 2025/early 2026. Kounrad continues to perform well, with C1 costs decreasing due to currency and input savings.

3. NewsRoom

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Does Central Asia Metals plc's (LON:CAML) Weak Fundamentals Mean That The Market Could Correct Its Share Price?

Oct -15

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Central Asia Metals And 2 Other Undiscovered Gems In The UK Market

Sep -18

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Central Asia Metals First Half 2025 Earnings: Revenues Beat Expectations, EPS Lags

Sep -14

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Giyani Announces Senior Leadership Change

Sep -11

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Central Asia Metals (LON:CAML) shareholders have endured a 3.7% loss from investing in the stock three years ago

Aug -28

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Endeavour Announces Director Declaration

Aug -21

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Unearthing Undiscovered Gems in the UK This July 2025

Jul -22

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Kinterra Capital Submits Proposal to Acquire 100% of New World Resources

Jun -23

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.83%)

6. Segments

Kounrad

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Kounrad's 4.83% growth is driven by increasing copper prices, strong operational performance, and efficient cost management. The mine's high-grade ore and low cash costs also contribute to its profitability. Additionally, Central Asia Metals' focus on exploration and expansion projects will further enhance Kounrad's growth potential.

Sasa

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Sasa's 4.83% growth is driven by increasing copper prices, strong operational performance, and successful cost control measures. Additionally, Central Asia Metals' focus on exploration and development of new projects, such as the Sasa zinc-lead mine, contributes to the segment's growth. Furthermore, the company's solid financial position and strategic partnerships also support its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Copper

Central Asia Metals plc is a copper producer with operations in Kazakhstan. The company's primary copper asset is the Kolsay project, which is a copper mine located in eastern Kazakhstan.

Zinc

The company also produces zinc as a by-product of its copper mining operations. Zinc is used in galvanizing other metals, die-casting, and as an alloying metal.

Gold

Central Asia Metals plc also produces gold as a by-product of its copper mining operations. Gold is used in jewelry, coins, and as a store of value.

Silver

The company also produces silver as a by-product of its copper mining operations. Silver is used in electronics, solar panels, and as a store of value.

8. Central Asia Metals plc's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Central Asia Metals plc is moderate, as the company operates in a niche market with limited alternatives.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low, as Central Asia Metals plc has a diverse customer base and no single customer accounts for a significant portion of revenue.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is moderate, as Central Asia Metals plc relies on a few key suppliers for critical inputs, but has some flexibility to negotiate prices.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low, as Central Asia Metals plc operates in a capital-intensive industry with significant barriers to entry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high, as Central Asia Metals plc operates in a competitive industry with several established players vying for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 0.48%
Debt Cost 9.50%
Equity Weight 99.52%
Equity Cost 9.50%
WACC 9.50%
Leverage 0.48%

11. Quality Control: Central Asia Metals plc passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Semapa

A-Score: 7.2/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Vicat

A-Score: 7.1/10

Value: 7.9

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Iberpapel

A-Score: 7.0/10

Value: 8.2

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Rana Gruber

A-Score: 6.9/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 7.7

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Exacompta Clairefontaine

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 9.2

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Central Asia Metals

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

1.71$

Current Price

1.71$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows