Crest Nicholson Holdings plc (CRST.L) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Crest Nicholson Holdings plc builds residential homes in the United Kingdom.The company develops and sells apartments, houses, and commercial properties.It serves first-time buyers, families, and investors.

The company was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Chertsey, the United Kingdom.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on CRST

Crest Nicholson Holdings plc faced challenges due to a cooling UK property market, with buyer demand and sales activity declining further into negative territory, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. The market is anticipating an autumn budget, which may impact the sector. Additionally, UK house prices are expected to fall as market activity stalls, with rents projected to rise by around 3% over the next year. These factors likely affected the company's recent performance.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	136.2
Change Percentage	-0.66%
Open	136
Previous Close	137.1
Market Cap ( Millions)	349
Volume	258363
Year High	198.5
Year Low	125.71
M A 50	158.08
M A 200	168.94

FCF Yield	-21.97%
Dividend Yield	1.84%
ROE	-10.04%
Debt / Equity	22.33%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	-92.39%
Price To Book	0.48
Price Earnings Ratio	-4.78
Price To FCF	-4.55
Price To sales	0.57
EV / EBITDA	-4.83

2. Transcript Summary

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3. NewsRoom

UK property sales edge up in October

Nov -28

Source:

What the autumn budget could mean for the property market

Nov -20

Source:

10 gorgeous gatehouses that make a lasting first impression

Nov -14

Source:

UK property market cools amid autumn budget fears

Nov -13

Source:

Why buying property before the budget might bag you a bargain

Nov -10

Source:

UK house prices see fastest growth since January as mortgage approvals rise

Nov -07

Source:

9 high-tech homes that make daily life easier

Nov -07

Source:

9 bewitching homes that will put you under their spell

Oct -31

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (3.93%)

6. Segments

Open Market Housing including Specification Upgrades

Expected Growth: 4%

Crest Nicholson Holdings plc's Open Market Housing segment, including Specification Upgrades, is driven by increasing demand for high-quality homes, government-backed initiatives like Help to Buy, and strategic land acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on premium products, partnerships with housing associations, and efficient construction processes contribute to its 4% growth.

Affordable Housing

Expected Growth: 3%

Crest Nicholson Holdings plc's affordable housing segment growth is driven by increasing demand for affordable homes, government initiatives to address housing shortages, and partnerships with local authorities to deliver mixed-tenure developments. Additionally, the company's focus on brownfield regeneration and urban renewal projects contributes to its growth, as well as its ability to offer a range of affordable housing products, including shared ownership and rent-to-buy options.

Land and Commercial

Expected Growth: 6%

Crest Nicholson Holdings plc's Land and Commercial segment growth of 6% is driven by increasing demand for strategically located land, rising commercial property values, and effective land management strategies. Additionally, the segment benefits from the UK government's initiatives to boost housing supply and infrastructure development, further supporting growth.

7. Detailed Products

Residential Homes

Crest Nicholson Holdings plc develops and sells residential homes, including apartments, houses, and penthouses, catering to various customer segments, from first-time buyers to families and retirees.

Mixed-Use Developments

The company creates mixed-use developments that combine residential, commercial, and retail spaces, often in urban regeneration areas, to create vibrant and sustainable communities.

Affordable Housing

Crest Nicholson provides affordable housing solutions, including shared ownership and rental properties, to address the UK's housing shortage and support local communities.

Land and Planning Services

The company offers land and planning services, including land acquisition, planning consultancy, and project management, to help clients navigate the development process.

Partnership and Regeneration

Crest Nicholson collaborates with public and private sector partners to deliver large-scale regeneration projects, transforming underutilized sites into thriving communities.

8. Crest Nicholson Holdings plc's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Crest Nicholson Holdings plc is moderate due to the availability of alternative housing options and the ability of customers to delay purchases.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low due to the fragmented nature of the housing market and the lack of concentration among buyers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is moderate due to the presence of multiple suppliers of building materials and the ability of Crest Nicholson Holdings plc to negotiate prices.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry in the housing market, including the need for significant capital investment and regulatory approvals.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the competitive nature of the housing market and the presence of multiple established players.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	26.28%
Debt Cost	4.21%
Equity Weight	73.72%
Equity Cost	13.60%
WACC	11.13%
Leverage	35.64%

11. Quality Control: Crest Nicholson Holdings plc passed 4 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Kaufman & Broad

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Neinor Homes

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 3.1

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Crest Nicholson

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 9.4

Growth: 0.6

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 5.6

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

MJ Gleeson

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 8.2

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Orascom Development Holding

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 7.2

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 2.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 5.9

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 6.2

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

22.54%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

11.13%

Crest Nicholson Holdings plc - GB00B8VZXT93

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Crest Nicholson Holdings plc builds residential homes in the United Kingdom.The company develops and sells apartments, houses, and commercial properties.It serves first-time buyers, families, and investors.The company was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Chertsey, the United Kingdom.

1.b. Last Insights on CRST

1.c. Company Highlights

Lower Growth

Higher Yield

Weak Momentum

Revenues Miss

Medium Volatility

More Volatile

Stable Momentum

Average Growth

Cheaper

Average Yield

2. Transcript Summary

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (3.93%)

6. Segments

Open Market Housing including Specification Upgrades

Expected Growth: 4%

Affordable Housing

Expected Growth: 3%

Land and Commercial

Expected Growth: 6%

7. Detailed Products

Residential Homes

Mixed-Use Developments

Affordable Housing

Land and Planning Services

Partnership and Regeneration

8. Crest Nicholson Holdings plc's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Crest Nicholson Holdings plc passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

1.36$

Current Price

1.36$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

Crest Nicholson Holdings plc builds residential homes in the United Kingdom.The company develops and sells apartments, houses, and commercial properties.It serves first-time buyers, families, and investors.

The company was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Chertsey, the United Kingdom.

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA