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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Ninety One Group operates as an independent global asset manager worldwide.It serves private and public sector pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, insurers, corporates, foundations, and central banks, as well as large retail financial groups, wealth managers, public and private equity as well as debt, private banks, and intermediaries.It seeks to invest in South African companies struggling with the economic fallout from the spread of coronavirus.


The company was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Cape Town, South Africa with additional offices in Africa, Americas, Asia-Pacific and Europe.

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1.b. Last Insights on N91

Ninety One Group's recent stock performance has been negatively driven by concerns over the UK market's decline, with the FTSE 100 index experiencing dips due to weak trade data from China. This has led to uncertainty and volatility, making investors cautious. Additionally, the company's exposure to emerging markets, which are still recovering from the US dollar's strength, may also be weighing on its stock.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Ninety One's Earnings Beat Expectations, Driven by Strong Asset Inflows

Ninety One reported a robust financial performance, with adjusted earnings per share growing 15% to 7.757p, in line with analyst estimates. The company's operating margin expanded to 32.1%, driven by a 12% increase in adjusted operating profit to GBP 98.8 million. Management fees rose to GBP 290.7 million, with an average AUM of GBP 139.7 billion and an average management fee rate of 41.5 bps. Profit before tax was GBP 102.2 million, up 10%, and profit after tax was GBP 76.7 million, up 11%.

Publication Date: Nov -18

📋 Highlights
  • AUM Growth & Net Inflows:: Assets under management rose 19% YoY, with GBP 4.3B net inflows in H1 (GBP 2.4B organic + GBP 1.9B from Sanlam U.K. transaction).
  • Profitability Expansion:: Adjusted operating profit grew 12% to GBP 98.8M, driven by expanded operating margins to 32.1% and 15% EPS growth.
  • Strategic Acquisitions & AUM:: Sanlam U.K. transaction added GBP 1.9B AUM, with GBP 17B total AUM expected from Sanlam (GBP 1.9B U.K. + GBP 15.1B SA pending).
  • Fee Margin Pressure:: Average management fee rate at 41.5 bps, with 1 bps annual compression guidance and dilution from Sanlam’s fixed-income AUM.
  • Talent & AI Investments:: 8% headcount increase for Sanlam integration and tech growth, plus AI innovation (advocate, equip, use strategy) and systems migration completed.

Business Momentum and Strategic Progress

The company's business momentum is strong, with net inflows of GBP 4.3 billion for the half year, comprising GBP 2.4 billion organic and GBP 1.9 billion from the Sanlam U.K. transaction. Ninety One has continued to invest in talent, broadening its top leadership team and evolving accountability. The company has formed a dedicated international public markets team, reinforced its private markets team, and backed new growth opportunities through the Ninety One Foundry. As noted by the management, "the pipeline for the next 6-12 months looks positive, with opportunities in scale mandates."

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/E Ratio of 12.14 and a Dividend Yield of 5.82%, Ninety One's valuation appears reasonable, considering its strong financial performance and growth prospects. The company's ROE of 41.63% is also impressive, indicating effective use of shareholder capital. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 10.8%, suggesting a positive outlook for the company. However, fee pressure remains a challenge, with an expected 1 basis point compression per year. Ninety One's management team is focused on mitigating this trend and protecting its operating margin.

Investment in Growth Initiatives

Ninety One has made significant investments in growth initiatives, including the development of its alternatives business and the adoption of AI technology. The company has built capability to be competitive in the private credit space and expects accelerating flows. While these investments will take time to impact the bottom line, they are expected to drive long-term growth and profitability.

Capital Management and Shareholder Returns

Ninety One's capital coverage ratio is 245%, above the 200% target, and the company may consider moving closer to this target. The company continues to return capital to shareholders through buybacks, looking for opportunities to use seed capital when comfortable with the price and in agreement with the Board. The dividend per share increased to 6p, reflecting the company's commitment to shareholder returns.

3. NewsRoom

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Bond investors warned US Treasury over picking Kevin Hassett as Fed chair

Dec -03

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Why The Narrative Around Ninety One Is Changing After Recent Analyst Price Target Upgrades

Nov -26

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Ninety One PLC (FRA:3XH) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Profit Growth Amid Market ...

Nov -18

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How Recent Developments Are Rewriting the Story for Ninety One Group

Nov -11

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Rare Inflation Flip Gives Emerging Markets Edge on Rich Nations

Nov -09

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Green Investors Enjoy Huge Returns as Stock Market Powers Through Trump’s Attacks

Nov -03

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Ninety One's Middle East CIO Sees 'Huge Growth' in Credit Opportunities

Oct -28

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Why Analysts See the Story Changing for Ninety One After a Boost in Outlook and Valuation

Oct -28

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.50%)

6. Segments

Investment Management

Expected Growth: 8.5%

Increasing demand for active investment solutions, growing need for sustainable investments, and rising adoption of ESG principles drive growth in Ninety One Group's investment management business.

7. Detailed Products

Equities

Ninety One Group offers a range of equity products that cater to different investment objectives and risk profiles, including active and passive strategies, thematic and sector-specific funds, and index trackers.

Fixed Income

The company provides a variety of fixed income products, including government bonds, corporate bonds, and high-yield bonds, designed to generate regular income and manage interest rate risk.

Multi-Asset

Ninety One Group's multi-asset products combine different asset classes, such as equities, fixed income, and alternatives, to provide diversified investment portfolios.

Alternatives

The company offers alternative investment products, including real estate, private equity, and hedge funds, designed to provide diversification and potentially higher returns.

Sustainable Investing

Ninety One Group's sustainable investment products integrate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations into the investment process, aiming to generate long-term returns while promoting positive impact.

Index Funds

The company offers a range of index funds that track various market indices, providing low-cost, diversified exposure to different asset classes and geographic regions.

8. Ninety One Group's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Ninety One Group is moderate, as there are some alternatives available in the market, but they are not very attractive to customers.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Ninety One Group is low, as customers have limited options and the company has a strong brand presence.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Ninety One Group is moderate, as the company has some dependence on key suppliers, but it also has some bargaining power due to its size and reputation.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Ninety One Group is high, as the industry is attractive and there are low barriers to entry, making it easy for new companies to enter the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Ninety One Group is high, as the industry is highly competitive and there are many established players, leading to a high level of competition.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 22.70%
Debt Cost 4.80%
Equity Weight 77.30%
Equity Cost 7.26%
WACC 6.70%
Leverage 29.36%

11. Quality Control: Ninety One Group passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Janus Henderson

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 5.4

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 8.5

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
GBL

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 5.8

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
VZ Holding

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 2.4

Growth: 6.8

Quality: 8.1

Yield: 3.1

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Ninety One

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 5.2

Growth: 2.0

Quality: 7.5

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Greencoat UK Wind

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 7.3

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Eurazeo

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 5.8

Growth: 0.1

Quality: 3.7

Yield: 6.2

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

2.1$

Current Price

2.1$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows