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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Ryanair Holdings plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides scheduled-passenger airline services in Ireland, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Germany, and other European countries.It is also involved in the provision of various ancillary services, such as non-flight scheduled and Internet-related services; in-flight sale of beverages, food, duty-free, and merchandise; and marketing of car hire and accommodation services, and travel insurance through its website and mobile app.In addition, the company offers aircraft and passenger handling, ticketing, and maintenance and repair services; and markets car parking, fast-track, airport transfers, attractions, and activities on its website and mobile app, as well as sells gift vouchers.


As of June 30, 2022, it had a principal fleet of approximately 483 Boeing 737 aircrafts and 29 Airbus A320 aircrafts; and offered approximately 3,000 short-haul flights per day serving approximately 225 airports.Ryanair Holdings plc was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Swords, Ireland.

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1.b. Last Insights on RYA

Ryanair's recent performance was driven by strong demand, fleet upgrades, and easing tariff uncertainties. The airline reported a 42% rise in half-year profits, driven by a 13% increase in fares and higher revenues from ancillary services. Earlier-than-expected Boeing deliveries boosted passenger traffic forecasts, with 23 new MAX 8 aircraft received. Bernstein SocGen Group reiterated an 'Outperform' rating, citing the company's strength. Quicker deliveries enabled Ryanair to raise its full-year passenger outlook to 207 million.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Ryanair's Q3 Earnings: A Resilient Performance Amidst Industry Challenges

Ryanair reported a Q3 profit after tax of EUR 115 million, pre-exceptional, despite a 22% decrease due to the absence of Boeing delivery compensation. The actual EPS came out at '0.02864', significantly better than estimates at '-0.40157'. Traffic rose 6% to 47.5 million passengers, with fares up 4%. The revenue growth was driven by the increase in passenger numbers and fares. With a strong balance sheet, Ryanair has a BBB+ credit rating and strong liquidity of EUR 2.4 billion gross cash.

Publication Date: Feb -02

📋 Highlights
  • Q3 Profit Resilience:: Pre-exceptional profit after tax of EUR 115 million despite 22% drop due to absence of Boeing compensation.
  • Passenger and Fare Growth:: Traffic up 6% to 47.5 million passengers, with fares rising 4% year-on-year.
  • Fuel Cost Savings:: 80% of fuel hedged at $67/barrel for FY '27, securing 10% savings and supporting profit guidance.
  • Strategic Expansion:: 106 new routes and 3 bases (Tirana, Trapani, Rabat) announced for Summer '26, with 4 Gamechangers to be delivered in February.
  • Strong Balance Sheet:: EUR 2.4 billion liquidity, BBB+ rating, and EUR 2.13–2.23 billion FY '26 profit outlook despite EUR 256 million Italian fine provision.

Operational Highlights

The company has 206 Gamechangers in its 643 aircraft fleet, with the last 4 aircraft to be delivered in February. Ryanair has announced 3 new bases and 106 new routes for summer '26, already on sale. The company is focused on growing in regions with reduced aviation taxes and stimulating growth, with new bases in Tirana, Trapani, and Rabat. European short-haul capacity will be constrained until at least 2030 due to delivery delays, engine repairs, and industry consolidation.

Fuel Hedging and Cost Management

Ryanair has hedged 80% of its fuel for FY '27 at $67 a barrel, resulting in a 10% saving in fuel costs. The company is well-positioned to benefit from its fuel hedges coming through next year. The engine shop project is progressing well, with an announcement on the first site expected soon, and the first shop expected to be operational by late 2028.

Outlook and Valuation

Ryanair expects FY '26 traffic to grow 4% to 208 million passengers and now believes that the full-year fares will exceed the previous 7% growth guidance. The company guides full-year profit after tax pre-exceptionals in a range of EUR 2.13 billion to EUR 2.23 billion. With a P/E Ratio of 13.43 and an EV/EBITDA of 7.11, the stock appears reasonably valued. The ROE (%) is 27.85, indicating a strong return on equity. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 5.1%, which is slightly higher than the current growth rate.

Shareholder Returns

The EUR 750 million buyback is progressing well, with 46% completed, and 13.1 million shares bought back at an average price of EUR 26 per share. An interim dividend of EUR 0.19 per share is payable by the end of February. The company's focus has not shifted from investing in growth to shareholder returns, with plans to have 300 MAX 10s in the fleet and 300 million passengers by FY '34.

3. NewsRoom

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How to save money on your Northern Lights holiday

Feb -17

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Spanish Court Warning Puts Ryanair Governance And Legal Risks In Focus

Feb -15

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Amazon rolls out new payment method - but consumer expert says you should think twice

Feb -13

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European Stocks Mixed in Wednesday Trading; Ryanair Faces Warning From Spanish Court

Feb -11

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Ryanair Faces Criminal Liability Warning From Spanish Court in eDreams Dispute, eDreams Says

Feb -11

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eDreams ODIGEO Secures Ruling, Ryanair Receives Warning of Criminal Liability Over Systematic Disobedience of Court Orders

Feb -11

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Assessing Ryanair Holdings (ISE:RYA) Valuation After Recent Short-Term Share Price Weakness

Feb -09

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Ryanair's Traffic Numbers for January 2026 Improve Year Over Year

Feb -04

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (6.40%)

6. Segments

Ryanair DAC

Expected Growth: 7.0%

As the largest and most profitable segment, Ryanair DAC is expected to drive growth through increased passenger traffic, higher ancillary revenue, and efficient cost management. The segment's growth will be fueled by Ryanair's expanding fleet, new route launches, and improved operational efficiency.

Other Airlines

Expected Growth: 5.0%

The growth of Other Airlines will be driven by the expansion of its fleet, increased passenger traffic, and strategic partnerships. However, growth will be slower compared to Ryanair DAC due to competitive pressures and market saturation in certain regions.

Elimination

Expected Growth: 0.0%

As an elimination segment, growth is not applicable, as it merely represents accounting adjustments to eliminate intra-group transactions. The segment's purpose is to ensure accurate financial reporting, and its value will fluctuate based on inter-segment transactions.

7. Detailed Products

Scheduled Flights

Ryanair offers low-cost scheduled flights to over 200 destinations in 37 countries across Europe and North Africa.

Ancillary Services

Ryanair offers additional services such as checked baggage, priority boarding, and seat selection to enhance the travel experience.

Travel Insurance

Ryanair offers travel insurance policies to protect against unforeseen events such as trip cancellations, medical emergencies, and travel disruptions.

Car Hire

Ryanair partners with car rental companies to offer discounted car hire rates at destinations across Europe.

Hotel Booking

Ryanair offers discounted hotel rates at destinations across Europe through its partnership with Booking.com.

Package Holidays

Ryanair offers package holidays that combine flights, hotels, and car rentals for a discounted rate.

8. Ryanair Holdings plc's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Ryanair's low-cost model and efficient operations make it difficult for substitutes to emerge. However, there is a growing trend towards train travel and other modes of transport that could potentially substitute air travel.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Ryanair's customers have some bargaining power due to the availability of alternative airlines and travel options. However, the airline's low fares and efficient operations make it an attractive option for many customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Ryanair has a strong bargaining position with its suppliers due to its large scale of operations and ability to negotiate favorable contracts. This allows the airline to keep costs low and maintain its competitive advantage.

Threat Of New Entrants

The airline industry has significant barriers to entry, including high capital costs, regulatory hurdles, and the need for specialized expertise. This makes it difficult for new entrants to challenge Ryanair's market position.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The European airline industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share. Ryanair faces intense competition from other low-cost carriers, as well as from traditional airlines that are adapting to the low-cost model.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 42.18%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 57.82%
Equity Cost 11.56%
WACC 8.35%
Leverage 72.94%

11. Quality Control: Ryanair Holdings plc passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Copa

A-Score: 7.3/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 9.3

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Aena

A-Score: 7.2/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 7.1

Quality: 7.7

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Vinci

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Ryanair

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 7.8

Quality: 6.8

Yield: 1.2

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Volvo

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 3.7

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Saint-Gobain

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 4.4

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

26.99$

Current Price

26.99$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows