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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Glencore plc produces, refines, processes, stores, transports, and markets metals and minerals, and energy products in the Americas, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania.It operates through two segments, Marketing Activities and Industrial Activities.The company produces and markets copper, cobalt, nickel, zinc, lead, chrome ore, ferrochrome, vanadium, alumina, aluminum, tin, and iron ore.


It also engages in the oil exploration/production, distribution, storage, and bunkering activities; and offers coal, crude oil and oil products, refined products, and natural gas.In addition, the company markets and distributes physical commodities sourced from third party producers and its production to industrial consumers in the battery, electronic, construction, automotive, steel, energy, and oil industries.Further, it provides financing, logistics, and other services to producers and consumers of commodities.


The company was formerly known as Glencore Xstrata plc and changed its name to Glencore plc in May 2014.Glencore plc was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Baar, Switzerland.

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1.b. Last Insights on GLEN

Glencore's recent performance has been influenced by several factors. The company's valuation has been in focus, with investor optimism returning, driving a nearly 13% climb in its share price over the past month. Analysts have responded to dynamic market conditions and Glencore's operational developments, slightly raising the consensus analyst price target from £3.93 to £4.00 per share. Additionally, Glencore's metal trading business is poised for a record year, with the company and its peers benefiting from phenomenal opportunities in the market. A recent extension of its senior debts with Glencore Canada Corporation also underscores the company's efforts to manage its financials.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Glencore's H1 2025 Earnings: A Resilient Performance Amidst Challenging Market Conditions

Glencore reported an adjusted EBITDA of $5.4 billion for the first half of 2025, comprising $3.8 billion from the industrial asset business and $1.4 billion from marketing. The industrial EBITDA was impacted by low coal prices, but benefited from a strong zinc and gold business. The company's earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.00751, significantly lower than analyst estimates of $0.02003. The marketing adjusted EBIT was $1.4 billion, annualizing above the old range. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 1.08, and cash generated by operating activities was $4.3 billion.

Publication Date: Aug -06

📋 Highlights
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $5.4 billion, down 14%, with $3.8 billion from industrial assets and $1.4 billion from marketing.
  • Copper Production: 60% of annual production expected in H2, with target of 1 million tonnes by 2028.
  • Cost Savings: $1 billion sustainable savings identified, with 50% expected in H2 2025 and remainder in 2026.
  • Shareholder Returns: $3.2 billion returned through dividends and buybacks, plus $1 billion buyback from Bunge proceeds.
  • Net Debt: $14.5 billion, with net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.08 and $4.3 billion in operating cash flow.

Financial Performance

The company's financial performance was characterized by a 14% decline in adjusted EBITDA, primarily due to lower coal prices and copper production timing. The spot illustrative EBITDA was $14.2 billion. Net debt was $14.5 billion, and pro-forma net debt to EBITDA was around 1x with the Bunge proceeds. The industrial EBITDA waterfall bridge showed a $1 billion price variance impact, primarily in energy, and a $1.1 billion volume variance impact, mainly in copper.

Segmental Performance

The copper business has a net cost structure of $225 million for the first half, expected to be flat at $174 million in '25 once H2 volume recoveries are in place, and to decrease to the $140s by '26/'27. The zinc business has seen significant cost savings, with a $0.44 per pound reduction in unit cost before byproduct credits. The steelmaking coal business has a significant margin at around $110 per tonne, and the energy coal business has maintained costs around $65.

Valuation and Returns

Glencore's current valuation metrics indicate a 'P/E Ratio' of -28.27, 'P/B Ratio' of 1.14, 'P/S Ratio' of 0.2, 'EV/EBITDA' of 8.23, 'Dividend Yield (%)' of 3.06, 'Free Cash Flow Yield (%)' of 9.85, 'ROIC (%)' of 11.75, and 'ROE (%)' of -3.98. The 'Net Debt / EBITDA' ratio is 3.65. These metrics suggest that the market is pricing in a challenging outlook for the company, but the dividend yield and free cash flow yield indicate a relatively attractive return for investors.

Outlook and Guidance

Copper production is expected to increase significantly in H2, driven by contributions from KCC, Collahuasi, Antamina, and Antapaccay, with a pathway to 1 million tonnes by 2028. The company has identified $1 billion of sustainable cost savings through organizational reviews, with 50% expected to be achieved in H2 2025 and the remainder in 2026. The company is repaying shareholders $3.2 billion through a base dividend and buybacks, and has announced an additional $1 billion buyback.

3. NewsRoom

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China’s Grip on Copper Sets Scene for Make-or-Break Supply Talks

Nov -24

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Basic Materials Roundup: Market Talk

Nov -21

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Basic Materials Roundup: Market Talk

Nov -21

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Should You Reevaluate Glencore’s Value After Its Latest Mining Sector Moves?

Nov -14

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$707 Million IPO Frenzy: Glencore, Jane Street Bet Big on China's Secret Aluminum Giant

Nov -14

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Western Copper and Gold Strengthens Board with Appointment of Mark E. Smith

Nov -14

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Chinese aluminium smelter rides Hong Kong IPO wave with US$707 million fundraising

Nov -14

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Basic Materials Roundup: Market Talk

Nov -12

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.18%)

6. Segments

Marketing Activities

Expected Growth: 5.2%

Glencore plc's marketing activities focus on diversifying its commodity portfolio, increasing production volumes, and expanding into new markets, driving growth in the industry.

Industrial Activities

Expected Growth: 4.8%

Glencore's growth is driven by its copper output, increasing demand for electric vehicles, and growing supply of nickel and cobalt for battery production, supported by its mining and metallurgy activities.

Inter-Segment Eliminations

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Glencore plc's Inter-Segment Eliminations' growth is driven by increasing demand, urbanization, and infrastructure development, leading to rising commodity prices and trading volumes.

7. Detailed Products

Copper

Glencore plc is one of the world's largest producers of copper, a highly conductive metal used in electrical wiring, electronics, and construction.

Cobalt

Glencore plc is a significant producer of cobalt, a key component in lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles and portable electronics.

Nickel

Glencore plc produces nickel, a corrosion-resistant metal used in stainless steel production, alloys, and electroplating.

Zinc

Glencore plc is a major producer of zinc, a versatile metal used in galvanizing, die-casting, and as an alloying element.

Ferrosilicon

Glencore plc produces ferrosilicon, an alloy used in the production of steel and as a deoxidizer in steel manufacturing.

Iron Ore

Glencore plc produces iron ore, a key ingredient in steel production.

Coal

Glencore plc is a significant producer of thermal and metallurgical coal, used in power generation and steel production.

Agricultural Products

Glencore plc markets and distributes a range of agricultural products, including grains, oilseeds, and sugar.

8. Glencore plc's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Glencore plc operates in the mining industry, where substitutes are limited. However, the company's focus on copper, cobalt, zinc, nickel, and ferroalloys makes it vulnerable to substitutes in specific markets.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Glencore plc's customers are largely industrial companies and manufacturers, which have limited bargaining power due to their dependence on the company's products.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Glencore plc relies on a network of suppliers for equipment, services, and materials. While some suppliers may have bargaining power, the company's scale and diversification mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

The mining industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements, regulatory hurdles, and environmental concerns, making it difficult for new entrants to challenge Glencore plc's position.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The mining industry is highly competitive, with several large players competing for market share. Glencore plc faces intense rivalry from companies like BHP, Rio Tinto, and Anglo American.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 42.52%
Debt Cost 10.42%
Equity Weight 57.48%
Equity Cost 10.42%
WACC 10.42%
Leverage 73.98%

11. Quality Control: Glencore plc passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
BHP

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 3.8

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Rio Tinto

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 5.4

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 6.8

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
HeidelbergCement

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 4.4

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Kenmare Resources

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 9.4

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 2.8

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Anglo American

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 1.8

Quality: 2.0

Yield: 3.8

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Glencore

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 2.8

Quality: 1.0

Yield: 4.4

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

3.8$

Current Price

3.8$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows