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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Metals Acquisition Corp does not have significant operations.It intends to effect a merger, share exchange, asset acquisition, share purchase, reorganization, or similar business combination with one or more businesses.The company intends to focus its search on metals and mining businesses.


Metals Acquisition Corp was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Fort Worth, Texas.

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1.b. Last Insights on MTAL

The recent 3 months performance of Metals Acquisition Corp (MAC) was negatively driven by concerns over production costs and debt repayment. The company reported a record quarterly production of 11,320 tonnes at a 4.1% Cu grade, but material improvement in the total recordable injury frequency rate (TRIFR) to 10.9 in Q4 2024 from 14.2 was a positive. However, the company's decision to amend its loan agreement with Sprott to permit early repayment may indicate increased debt burden, potentially weighing on its financials.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. MAC Copper Limited's Q4 2024 Earnings Report

MAC Copper Limited reported strong financial performance in its Q4 2024 earnings report, beating the mid-point of guidance with 11,320 tonnes of copper produced at a grade of 4.1% milled. The company's C1 cost for the quarter was $1.66/lb, a good result, and it had $213 million of liquidity at the end of the year. The net gearing ratio stood at 15% at the end of the year, indicating a significant deleveraging of the balance sheet.

Publication Date: Feb -16

📋 Highlights
  • Strong Q4 Results: MAC Copper Limited reported strong Q4 results, beating the mid-point of guidance with 11,320 tonnes of copper produced at a grade of 4.1% milled, and a C1 cost of $1.66/lb.
  • Improved Safety Performance: The company reported a significant improvement in safety performance, with a TRIFR of 11, down from 14 in the previous quarter.
  • Strong Balance Sheet: MAC Copper Limited has a strong balance sheet, with $172 million in cash and a pro forma net gearing ratio of 15%, and has reduced its senior debt and paid down debt.
  • Increased Production and Cost Savings: The company aims to increase production levels by mining more tonnes, while reducing costs, with processing costs per tonne down 2% and mining costs per tonne down 21% from Q1.
  • Exploration and Growth Opportunities: MAC Copper Limited has significant exploration and growth opportunities, including the potential for incremental production from the ventilation drive, and the discovery of zinc deposits in the upper mine area.

Financial Performance

The company's strong financial performance was driven by increased production and reduced costs. Processing costs per tonne were down 2% from the previous quarter, and mining costs per tonne were down 21% from Q1. The company's ability to spread fixed costs over increased volumes also contributed to the strong results. As Mick McMullen, CEO of MAC Copper Limited, stated, "We've delivered on our goals in 2024, including operating the mine safely, increasing the reserve life to 11 years, and achieving record copper production."

Balance Sheet and Liquidity

The company's balance sheet is in a strong position, with $172 million in cash and a pro forma net gearing ratio of 15%. The company has also reduced its senior debt and has a healthy cash flow from operations. As Morné Engelbrecht, CFO, noted, "The balance sheet restructure will take around six to eight weeks to finalize, aiming to extend debt at a low 7% interest rate and increase the rolling facility for better balance sheet management."

Operational Performance

The company's operational performance was strong, with a TRIFR of 11, a significant improvement from 14 in the previous quarter. The company's capital projects, including the stage 10 lift, will give the company tailings capacity out to 2030. The Ventilation project is on track to meet its A$42 million budget and target completion date of Q3 2026, with potential for incremental production from the ventilation drive.

Guidance and Outlook

The company is working on updating its guidance, but the current expectation is for a bit more tonnes, similar grade, and a higher production level. The key driver will be consistency in tonnes mined, rather than grade. The company aims to mine more tonnes and achieve a higher production level.

Valuation

With a price-to-sales ratio of 5.99 and an enterprise value to EBITDA ratio of 35.5, the company's valuation appears reasonable. Analyst estimates suggest a revenue growth of 19.8% next year, indicating a positive outlook for the company.

3. NewsRoom

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MAC Copper Limited (NYSE:MTAL) Receives $12.63 Consensus Price Target from Brokerages

Oct -31

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MAC Copper Limited Announces Scheme with Harmony Becomes Effective

Oct -10

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MAC Copper Limited Announces MAC Shareholders Vote in Favour of Scheme With Harmony

Aug -29

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MAC Copper Limited Announces Dispatch of Scheme Circular

Aug -05

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Court Orders Meetings of MAC Shareholders to Consider Scheme With Harmony

Jul -31

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MAC Copper Limited (MTAL) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Jul -24

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MAC Copper Limited Provides Update on Recommended Transaction with Harmony

Jul -22

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MAC Copper Limited Provides Notice of Release of Second Quarter 2025 Results and Conference Call Details

Jul -14

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.66%)

6. Segments

Copper

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Copper's 4.65% growth is driven by increasing demand from electric vehicle production, renewable energy infrastructure, and construction activities. Additionally, supply chain constraints, mine closures, and declining ore grades contribute to the metal's growth. Furthermore, copper's use in 5G infrastructure and rising global electrification also support its upward trend.

Silver

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Metals Acquisition Corp's 4.83% growth in Silver is driven by increasing industrial demand, particularly in the solar panel and electronics industries, as well as rising investment demand fueled by inflation concerns and a weaker US dollar. Additionally, supply constraints and mine production disruptions contribute to the metal's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Copper

Metals Acquisition Corp's copper products are used in various industrial applications, including electrical wiring, plumbing, and architecture.

Gold

Metals Acquisition Corp's gold products are used in jewelry, coins, and other precious metal products.

Silver

Metals Acquisition Corp's silver products are used in industrial applications, including solar panels and water purification systems.

Zinc

Metals Acquisition Corp's zinc products are used in galvanizing other metals to prevent corrosion.

Lead

Metals Acquisition Corp's lead products are used in batteries, radiation shielding, and pigments.

Nickel

Metals Acquisition Corp's nickel products are used in alloys, such as stainless steel, and in electroplating.

8. Metals Acquisition Corp's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Metals Acquisition Corp is moderate, as there are alternative materials that can be used in place of metals, but they may not offer the same level of quality or performance.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Metals Acquisition Corp is low, as customers have limited options and the company has a strong market presence.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Metals Acquisition Corp is moderate, as suppliers have some negotiating power due to the specialized nature of the metals industry.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Metals Acquisition Corp is high, as the industry is attractive and there are low barriers to entry, making it easy for new companies to enter the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Metals Acquisition Corp is high, as the industry is highly competitive and companies are constantly competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 62.92%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 37.08%
Equity Cost 3.92%
WACC 3.93%
Leverage 169.66%

11. Quality Control: Metals Acquisition Corp passed 1 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Metals Acquisition

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 5.5

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 3.7

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Carter Bankshares

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 5.7

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Software AG III

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 9.2

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
AIB Acquisition

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
CPI Card Group

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Nicholas Financial

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 8.2

Growth: 0.3

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

12.21$

Current Price

12.21$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows