Patria Investments Limited (PAX) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Patria Investments Limited operates as a private market investment firm focused on investing in Latin America.The company offers asset management services to investors focusing on private equity funds, infrastructure development funds, co-investments funds, constructivist equity funds, and real estate and credit funds.Patria Investments Limited was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Grand Cayman, the Cayman Islands.

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1.b. Last Insights on PAX

Negative drivers behind Patria Investments Limited's recent performance include the lack of recent earnings releases, with the last update being the Q4 2024 earnings call on February 12, 2025. Additionally, the company's acquisition of Richardson Psychiatric Associates on April 17, 2025, while a positive development, may not have had a significant impact on the stock's performance in the short term. Furthermore, the announcement of the first quarter 2025 investor call on April 15, 2025, may not have provided enough information to drive significant market movement.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	15.22
Change Percentage	-1.81%
Open	15.53
Previous Close	15.5
Market Cap ( Millions)	2427
Volume	423750
Year High	16.24
Year Low	9.43
M A 50	14.65
M A 200	13.18

FCF Yield	8.05%
Dividend Yield	3.94%
ROE	19.37%
Debt / Equity	24.93%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	70.53%
Price To Book	3.98
Price Earnings Ratio	21.97
Price To FCF	12.43
Price To sales	5.98
EV / EBITDA	15.46

2. Patria's Q3 2025 Earnings: Strong Fundraising and Fee Growth

Patria's financial performance in Q3 2025 was robust, with fee-related earnings (FRE) of $49.5 million, representing a 7% sequential and 22% year-over-year growth. The company's distributable earnings (DE) per share came in at $0.30, beating analyst estimates of $0.26. Fee-earning assets under management (AUM) grew to $38.8 billion, up 14% year-over-year and 4% sequentially. The effective tax rate in Q3 was 3.3%, mainly due to credits related to the company's U.K. operations.

Publication Date: Nov -26

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Assets Under Management (AUM) Milestone::
                                                Exceeded $50 billion as of Q3 2025, driven by 14% YoY and 4% sequential growth in fee-earning AUM to $38.8 billion.
Fee-Related Earnings (FRE) Growth::
                                                Q3 FRE of $49.5 million (7% sequential, 22% YoY), with full-year guidance of $200–225 million and 2026 target of $225–245 million.
Organic Fundraising Momentum::
                                                Raised $1.5 billion in Q3 and $6.6 billion YTD, with infrastructure and credit funds driving 4x 2024 fundraising and $1.6 billion raised year-to-date.
Dividend & Share Repurchase Expansion::
                                                2026 dividend increased to $0.65/share (+10% YoY), and share buyback program expanded to 3 million shares, with 1.5 million shares repurchased via TRS in Q3.
Pending AUM Deployment::
                                                $3 billion in pending paying AUM expected to deploy over 12–18 months, led by Infrastructure Fund V ($2.9 billion) and realizations from Fund III ($120–140 million in 2025–2026).

                                

Fundraising Momentum

Patria raised $1.5 billion in Q3 and $6 billion year-to-date, exceeding the high end of its previously revised full-year target of $6.6 billion. The company's infrastructure and credit businesses led the fundraising efforts, with Infrastructure Fund V raising 4x more than in 2024. The credit business has also seen significant growth, surpassing total 2024 fundraising by almost 15% as of Q3 2025.

Growth Prospects

Patria expects to continue its fundraising momentum, with over $3 billion of pending paying AUM expected to be deployed over the next 12 to 18 months. The company is also looking to restart its inorganic growth strategy in 2026 and 2027, focusing on the real estate and credit arenas. According to Alexandre Saigh, "We're well on track to exceed the high end of our previously upwardly revised full year target of $6.6 billion."

Valuation

With a P/E Ratio of 20.81 and a Dividend Yield of 4.16%, Patria's valuation appears reasonable. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 17.3%. The company's ROE of 19.37% and ROIC of 18.05% indicate strong profitability. The P/B Ratio of 3.77 is also in line with industry peers. The announced dividend of $0.65 per share for 2026 represents a 10% increase from the previous year, supporting the stock price.

Outlook

Patria's strong Q3 2025 earnings and fundraising momentum position the company for continued growth in 2026 and 2027. With a robust pipeline of pending paying AUM and a restart of its inorganic growth strategy, Patria is well-positioned to deliver on its FRE target range of $225 million to $245 million in 2026.

3. NewsRoom

UnitedHealth Sells Latin Unit For $1 Billion

Dec -01

Source: gurufocus.com

Patria Investments announces acquisition of 51% stake in Solis Investimentos, a leading Asset Back Security-focused manager in Brazil

Nov -26

Source: globenewswire.com

PAX or APO: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?

Nov -20

Source: zacks.com

Aviva PLC Lowers Position in Patria Investments Limited $PAX

Nov -14

Source: defenseworld.net

Patria: Latam's Premier Asset Manager Logs $50bn In AUM

Nov -05

Source: seekingalpha.com

Patria Investments Limited (PAX) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -05

Source: seekingalpha.com

PAX vs. KKR: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?

Nov -04

Source: zacks.com

Patria Investments (PAX) Beats Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

Nov -04

Source: zacks.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (9.29%)

6. Segments

Management Fees

Expected Growth: 9.27%

Patria Investments Limited's 9.27% growth in Management Fees is driven by increasing assets under management, expansion into new markets, and a growing demand for alternative investment products. Additionally, the company's strategic partnerships, improved operational efficiency, and competitive pricing strategy have contributed to the growth.

Performance Fees

Expected Growth: 9.27%

Patria Investments Limited's 9.27% growth in Performance Fees is driven by increasing assets under management (AUM), successful investment strategies, and a growing client base. Additionally, the company's expansion into new markets, improved operational efficiency, and competitive fee structures have contributed to this growth.

Incentive Fees

Expected Growth: 10.27%

Strong investment performance, increasing assets under management, and successful fundraising efforts by Patria Investments Limited have driven the 10.27% growth in incentive fees. Additionally, the company's expanding presence in Latin America and strategic partnerships have contributed to the growth, as well as the increasing demand for alternative investment products.

Advisory and Other Ancillary Fees

Expected Growth: 9.9%

Patria Investments Limited's 9.9% growth in Advisory and Other Ancillary Fees is driven by increasing demand for alternative investment solutions, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's expertise in private equity and real assets, as well as its ability to provide customized solutions, have contributed to its growth.

7. Detailed Products

Private Equity

Patria Investments Limited provides private equity investment solutions to its clients, focusing on long-term growth and value creation.

Infrastructure Investments

The company offers infrastructure investment opportunities, focusing on energy, transportation, and social infrastructure projects.

Real Estate Investments

Patria Investments Limited provides real estate investment solutions, including direct property investments and real estate funds.

Credit Investments

The company offers credit investment solutions, including corporate debt, structured credit, and distressed debt.

Wealth Management

Patria Investments Limited provides wealth management services, including portfolio management and investment advisory services.

8. Patria Investments Limited's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Patria Investments Limited is moderate due to the presence of alternative investment options available to customers.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is high due to the availability of multiple investment options and the ability of customers to negotiate prices.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is low due to the company's strong relationships with its suppliers and the availability of alternative suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is moderate due to the presence of barriers to entry, such as regulatory requirements and the need for significant capital investment.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the presence of several established players in the market, leading to a competitive environment.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	2.84%
Debt Cost	7.19%
Equity Weight	97.16%
Equity Cost	7.19%
WACC	7.19%
Leverage	2.92%

11. Quality Control: Patria Investments Limited passed 7 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Patria Investments

A-Score: 7.3/10

Value: 3.8

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 8.2

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Gladstone Capital

A-Score: 7.2/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 8.0

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

CGI

A-Score: 7.1/10

Value: 7.2

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 8.9

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Fiera Capital

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 6.3

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Portman Ridge Finance

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Westaim

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 2.1

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

-1.39%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

7.19%

Patria Investments Limited - KYG694511059

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on PAX

1.c. Company Highlights

Better Quality

Higher Yield

Expensive

Earnings Miss

Revenues Miss

Higher Growth

Weak Momentum

Earnings Beats

Revenues Beats

2. Patria's Q3 2025 Earnings: Strong Fundraising and Fee Growth

Fundraising Momentum

Growth Prospects

Valuation

Outlook

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (9.29%)

6. Segments

Management Fees

Expected Growth: 9.27%

Performance Fees

Expected Growth: 9.27%

Incentive Fees

Expected Growth: 10.27%

Advisory and Other Ancillary Fees

Expected Growth: 9.9%

7. Detailed Products

Private Equity

Infrastructure Investments

Real Estate Investments

Credit Investments

Wealth Management

8. Patria Investments Limited's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Patria Investments Limited passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

15.22$

Current Price

15.22$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA