ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT.AS) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

ArcelorMittal S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as integrated steel and mining companies in Europe, North and South America, Asia, and Africa.Its principal steel products include semi-finished flat products, including slabs; finished flat products comprising plates, hot- and cold-rolled coils and sheets, hot-dipped and electro-galvanized coils and sheets, tinplate, and color coated coils and sheets; semi-finished long products, which includes blooms and billets; finished long products, including bars, wire-rods, structural sections, rails, sheet piles, and wire-products; and seamless and welded pipes and tubes.The company's principal mining products comprise iron ore lumps, fines, concentrates, pellets, and sinter feeds; and coking and thermal coal, and pulverized coal injections.

It sells its products to various customers in the automotive, appliance, engineering, construction, energy, and machinery industries through a centralized marketing organization, as well as distributors.The company has iron ore mining activities in Brazil, Bosnia, Canada, Kazakhstan, Liberia, Mexico, South Africa, and Ukraine; and coal mining activities in Kazakhstan.ArcelorMittal S.A. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Luxembourg City, Luxembourg.

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1.b. Last Insights on MT

ArcelorMittal's recent performance was driven by strong Q3 earnings, marked by increased net income and improved iron ore production. The company's transformation initiatives, including a completed share repurchase, have bolstered investor confidence. Regulatory developments, such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, are expected to positively impact earnings. Additionally, the company's cancellation of 77.8 million treasury shares and a proposed EU tariff quota are seen as favorable moves. A recent agreement with Kalmar for a lithium-ion battery solution also highlights the company's efforts to enhance its operations. (Source: Various news articles)

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	36.6
Change Percentage	-0.33%
Open	36.85
Previous Close	36.72
Market Cap ( Millions)	27838
Volume	658447
Year High	37.81
Year Low	20.54
M A 50	33.86
M A 200	29.14

FCF Yield	2.79%
Dividend Yield	1.29%
ROE	4.80%
Debt / Equity	25.25%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	167.35%
Price To Book	0.6
Price Earnings Ratio	13.11
Price To FCF	35.83
Price To sales	0.53
EV / EBITDA	8.15

2. ArcelorMittal's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

ArcelorMittal reported a robust Q3 2025 performance, with EBITDA per tonne reaching $111, a 25% increase above the historical average margin. The company's EPS came in at $1.98, significantly beating analyst estimates of $0.64. Revenue growth is expected to continue, with analysts estimating a 7.1% increase in revenues for the next year. The company's ability to generate cash is evident, with the underlying business producing $0.5 billion in positive free cash flow over the past 9 months, excluding working capital. As Genuino Christino, Group CFO, noted, "the fact that we are posting such improved results at what we believe to be the bottom of the cycle bodes well for when conditions normalize."

Publication Date: Nov -11

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Q3 EBITDA per tonne increase:
                                                Rose to $111, 25% above historical average, driven by strategic projects and M&A.
Underlying free cash flow:
                                                Generated $0.5 billion in 9 months (excluding working capital), signaling strong liquidity.
CapEx range for 2026:
                                                Maintained at $4.5–$5 billion, aligned with strategic growth and operational efficiency projects.
CO2 cost exposure:
                                                Expected to pay for 20% of production in 2025, with minimal free allocation reductions in 2026 due to operational adjustments.
Calvert EAF ramp-up:
                                                Projected to reach 40–50% run rate by year-end, contributing to 2026 strategic EBITDA growth via EAF production.

                                

Valuation Metrics

ArcelorMittal's current valuation metrics indicate a relatively attractive position. The stock trades at a P/E Ratio of 12.21, P/B Ratio of 0.56, and EV/EBITDA of 7.7. Additionally, the company offers a Dividend Yield of 1.31% and a Free Cash Flow Yield of 3.0%. The ROIC stands at 3.15%, and the ROE is 4.8%, indicating a decent return on equity. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is 1.67, suggesting a manageable debt position.

Regional Performance and Outlook

The company's regional performance is mixed, with Europe expected to see seasonally higher volumes and higher iron ore shipments. North America is anticipated to experience seasonally lower volumes and lower lag prices. The company is confident in its ability to capture reduced import market share in Europe with its existing capacity. ArcelorMittal is also reviewing SOPs in Mexico to avoid operational issues and is investing in Brazil, despite rising imports, due to antidumping measures that should start to have an impact.

Trade and Industry Developments

The implementation of the new European trade tool and effective CBAM is expected to provide a solid foundation for the European business to earn its cost of capital. The company is also hopeful that the antidumping measures in place will start to have an impact by the end of the year or beginning of next year. Genuino Christino expressed confidence that the industry needs to regain a sustainable level of capacity utilization, and ArcelorMittal is well-equipped to seize new structural opportunities and translate them into profitable growth.

3. NewsRoom

Kalmar to supply forklift truck fleet including next-generation lithium-ion battery solution to ArcelorMittal

Nov -25

Source:

One of Britain’s richest men quits the UK

Nov -23

Source:

ArcelorMittal (ENXTAM:MT): Assessing Value After Recent Share Price Gains and Green Initiatives

Nov -22

Source:

Steel Wire Industry Report 2025: Global Market to Surpass $115 Billion by 2029, Driven by Increased Demand in Construction, Automotive, and Energy Sectors

Nov -21

Source:

ArcelorMittal cancels 77,809,772 treasury shares

Nov -21

Source:

ArcelorMittal calls for urgent adoption of EU tariff quota and reassures European customers

Nov -20

Source:

ArcelorMittal's Q3 Earnings Top Estimates on Y/Y Higher Shipments

Nov -14

Source:

ArcelorMittal's (AMS:MT) Profits May Not Reveal Underlying Issues

Nov -14

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.46%)

6. Segments

Europe

Expected Growth: 4.0%

Europe's 4.0% growth from ArcelorMittal S.A. is driven by increasing demand for high-strength steel in the automotive sector, infrastructure development, and rising construction activities. Additionally, the region's focus on renewable energy and decarbonization efforts are boosting demand for steel in wind turbines and other sustainable infrastructure projects.

NAFTA

Expected Growth: 4.83%

ArcelorMittal's 4.83% growth in NAFTA region is driven by increasing demand from automotive and construction industries, coupled with the company's focus on cost reduction and operational efficiency. Additionally, the region's economic growth, infrastructure development, and favorable trade policies have contributed to the growth.

Brazil

Expected Growth: 5.4%

Brazil's 5.4% growth driven by increasing domestic demand, infrastructure development, and government initiatives. Strong automotive and construction sectors boost steel consumption. Favorable trade policies and competitive labor costs support ArcelorMittal's operations, while investments in modernization and efficiency improvements enhance productivity.

ACIS

Expected Growth: 4.83%

ArcelorMittal's ACIS segment growth of 4.83% is driven by increasing demand for advanced high-strength steels in the automotive sector, coupled with growing adoption of sustainable construction practices. Additionally, the company's focus on innovation, cost savings initiatives, and strategic investments in emerging markets have contributed to this growth.

Mining

Expected Growth: 4.6%

ArcelorMittal S.A.'s 4.6% growth in mining is driven by increasing global steel demand, rising iron ore prices, and the company's efforts to optimize production and reduce costs. Additionally, the company's focus on high-grade iron ore and pellet production, as well as its strategic partnerships and acquisitions, have contributed to its growth in the mining segment.

Others

Expected Growth: 4.65%

ArcelorMittal's 4.65% growth is driven by increasing global steel demand, particularly in the automotive and construction sectors. The company's cost-cutting initiatives, improved operational efficiency, and strategic acquisitions have also contributed to its growth. Additionally, the rise in steel prices and favorable currency exchange rates have boosted revenue.

7. Detailed Products

Flat Carbon Steel

Flat carbon steel products are used in various industries such as automotive, construction, and consumer goods. They are available in different grades and sizes.

Long Carbon Steel

Long carbon steel products are used in various industries such as construction, automotive, and industrial equipment. They are available in different grades and sizes.

Stainless Steel

Stainless steel products are used in various industries such as food processing, construction, and consumer goods. They are available in different grades and sizes.

Electrical Steels

Electrical steels are used in various industries such as energy, transportation, and consumer goods. They are available in different grades and sizes.

Tubular Products

Tubular products are used in various industries such as oil and gas, construction, and industrial equipment. They are available in different grades and sizes.

Mining Products

Mining products are used in the extraction of minerals and metals. They are available in different grades and sizes.

Iron Ore

Iron ore is used in the production of steel. It is available in different grades and sizes.

Coal

Coal is used in the production of steel and other metals. It is available in different grades and sizes.

8. ArcelorMittal S.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for ArcelorMittal S.A. is medium due to the availability of alternative materials such as aluminum and copper, but steel remains a dominant material in the construction and automotive industries.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low due to the fragmented nature of the customer base, with no single customer accounting for a significant portion of ArcelorMittal's revenue.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is medium due to the presence of several major iron ore and coal suppliers, but ArcelorMittal's large scale of operations and diversified supply chain mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high capital costs and regulatory barriers to entry in the steel industry, making it difficult for new companies to enter the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the presence of several major steel producers, including Nippon Steel, POSCO, and Tata Steel, which leads to intense competition in the market.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	16.52%
Debt Cost	11.06%
Equity Weight	83.48%
Equity Cost	13.34%
WACC	12.96%
Leverage	19.79%

11. Quality Control: ArcelorMittal S.A. passed 4 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Inefficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Rio Tinto

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 5.4

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 6.8

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Acerinox

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 5.8

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 2.9

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Jacquet Metals

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 7.3

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 2.6

Yield: 4.4

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

CRH

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 2.6

Growth: 7.2

Quality: 5.3

Yield: 4.4

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Nucor

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

ArcelorMittal

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 7.1

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 2.5

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

40.30%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

12.96%

ArcelorMittal S.A. - LU1598757687

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on MT

1.c. Company Highlights

Average Yield

Average Quality

Fairly Valued

Earnings Beats

Revenues Miss

Stable Momentum

Revenues Beats

Earnings Miss

Lower Quality

Medium Volatility

Strong Momentum

2. ArcelorMittal's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Valuation Metrics

Regional Performance and Outlook

Trade and Industry Developments

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.46%)

6. Segments

Europe

Expected Growth: 4.0%

NAFTA

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Brazil

Expected Growth: 5.4%

ACIS

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Mining

Expected Growth: 4.6%

Others

Expected Growth: 4.65%

7. Detailed Products

Flat Carbon Steel

Long Carbon Steel

Stainless Steel

Electrical Steels

Tubular Products

Mining Products

Iron Ore

Coal

8. ArcelorMittal S.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: ArcelorMittal S.A. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

36.6$

Current Price

36.6$

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA