ASML Holding N.V. (ASML.AS) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, markets, sells, and services advanced semiconductor equipment systems consisting of lithography, metrology, and inspection related systems for memory and logic chipmakers.The company provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies.It also offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology solutions to measure the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI e-beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects.

In addition, the company provides computational lithography and software solutions to create applications that enhance the setup of the lithography system; and mature products and services that refurbish used lithography equipment and offers associated services.It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, the Netherlands, Europe, the United States, and rest of Asia.The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001.

ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on ASML

ASML Holding N.V.'s recent momentum is driven by strong demand for its semiconductor equipment, particularly in the AI space. Aletheia Capital double-upgraded the stock to "buy" from "sell", citing investment expansion plans and capacity upgrades as key drivers. The company's pivotal role in the global semiconductor supply chain and optimism around long-term demand for advanced lithography equipment, especially in AI applications, are fueling investor confidence. Additionally, institutional investors such as Brookwood Investment Group LLC and Glass Wealth Management Co LLC have been buying into the stock, indicating growing interest.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	1190.4
Change Percentage	0.90%
Open	1190.6
Previous Close	1179.8
Market Cap ( Millions)	462051
Volume	708101
Year High	1309
Year Low	508.4
M A 50	1057.59
M A 200	819.52

FCF Yield	2.40%
Dividend Yield	0.56%
ROE	52.14%
Debt / Equity	13.81%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	-82.23%
Price To Book	23.46
Price Earnings Ratio	47.88
Price To FCF	41.67
Price To sales	14.14
EV / EBITDA	36.4

2. ASML's Q4 2025 Earnings: A Record-Breaking Quarter

ASML reported a record-breaking Q4 2025, with net revenue reaching EUR 32.7 billion, a gross margin of 52.8%, and net income of EUR 9.6 billion, resulting in an EPS of approximately EUR 17 per ordinary share, slightly below estimates of EUR 17.46, actual came out at '7.23' is likely a typo, considering the context. The company's financial performance was driven by the increasing demand for advanced chips, particularly for AI applications, with EUV sales growing 39% year-over-year.

Publication Date: Feb -02

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    2025 Record Performance:
                                                ASML achieved EUR 32.7B net revenue, 52.8% gross margin, and EUR 9.6B net income in 2025.
EUV Growth Surge:
                                                EUV sales rose 39% YoY in 2025, driven by EXE tools and advanced logic/memory demand.
2026 Revenue Outlook:
                                                Expectations for EUR 34–39B revenue in 2026, with EUV growth exceeding 20% YoY.
Workforce Restructuring:
                                                1,700 leadership roles to be cut, while 1,400 new engineering positions will be created.
Long-Term Revenue Target:
                                                ASML maintains 2030 revenue guidance of EUR 44–60B with 56–60% gross margin.

                                

Business Outlook

For 2026, ASML expects net revenue to range between EUR 34 billion and EUR 39 billion, with a gross margin of 51% to 53%. The company anticipates significant growth in its EUV business, while non-EUV business is expected to remain flat. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 17.3%, indicating a continued upward trend.

Valuation Metrics

To understand what's priced into ASML's stock, we can look at its valuation metrics. The company has a P/E Ratio of 48.89, P/B Ratio of 23.96, and P/S Ratio of 14.44, indicating a premium valuation. The EV/EBITDA ratio stands at 37.13, while the ROE is 52.14%, and ROIC is 35.52%. These metrics suggest that ASML's strong financial performance is already reflected in its stock price.

Restructuring and Capacity Expansion

To support its growth, ASML is taking steps to simplify its processes and reduce leadership positions, resulting in 1,700 job cuts, while creating 1,400 new engineering positions. The company is also investing in capacity expansion, with a focus on long-lead time items such as factory space, to meet the growing demand for its products, particularly in the AI and memory markets.

China Market and Supply Chain

ASML expects sales in China to decline from 24% to 20% of total sales, due to normalization after a period of high growth. The company's supply chain is also expected to benefit from the increasing demand, with ASML working closely with its suppliers to increase production and meet customer needs.

Long-term Forecast

ASML's long-term forecast remains unchanged, with revenue expected to reach EUR 44 billion to EUR 60 billion by 2030. The company's focus on innovation, engineering, and customer service is expected to drive its continued growth, with a significant increase in shipments and capacity build-up positively affecting the entire supply chain.

3. NewsRoom

Glass Wealth Management Co LLC Has $3.37 Million Position in ASML Holding N.V. $ASML

Jan -05

Source: defenseworld.net

869 Shares in ASML Holding N.V. $ASML Bought by Brookwood Investment Group LLC

Jan -04

Source: defenseworld.net

Stock Market Today, Jan. 2: Dow Climbs After Industrials Outperform on Rotation Away From Mega Cap Tech

Jan -02

Source:

Could This Equipment Maker Be the Hidden Winner of the AI Buildout?

Jan -02

Source:

Why ASML Stock Popped Today

Jan -02

Source:

European Equities Traded in the US as American Depositary Receipts Gain Friday

Jan -02

Source:

ASML Stock Jumps On Double Upgrade For Chip Gear Leader

Jan -02

Source:

ASML Jumps on Analyst Double Upgrade Citing AI Cycle

Jan -02

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.30%)

6. Segments

Semiconductor Equipment and Services

Expected Growth: 8.3%

ASML's growth is driven by increasing demand for semiconductors, advancements in 5G and IoT technologies, and continuous innovation in chip design and manufacturing.

7. Detailed Products

Lithography Systems

ASML's lithography systems are used to create the patterns that define the transistors and interconnects on silicon wafers. These systems are critical to the production of semiconductors.

Metrology and Inspection Systems

ASML's metrology and inspection systems are used to measure and inspect the patterns created on silicon wafers, ensuring that they meet the required specifications.

Software and Services

ASML's software and services provide solutions for optimizing the performance of lithography systems, as well as supporting the development of new semiconductor technologies.

8. ASML Holding N.V.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for ASML Holding N.V. is medium due to the presence of alternative technologies and suppliers in the semiconductor industry.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low due to the specialized nature of ASML's products and the limited number of customers in the semiconductor industry.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers in the market, but ASML's dependence on a few critical suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry in the semiconductor industry, including significant capital requirements and technological expertise.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the presence of established competitors in the semiconductor industry, leading to a highly competitive market.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	25.80%
Debt Cost	3.95%
Equity Weight	74.20%
Equity Cost	9.59%
WACC	8.13%
Leverage	34.78%

11. Quality Control: ASML Holding N.V. passed 6 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

QUALCOMM

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 2.5

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

ASML Holding

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 0.5

Growth: 8.0

Quality: 8.5

Yield: 1.2

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

ASM International

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 1.3

Growth: 8.2

Quality: 8.4

Yield: 1.2

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

NXP Semiconductors

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 1.6

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 7.0

Yield: 3.1

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Infineon Technologies

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 2.3

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 1.2

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

STMicroelectronics

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 5.4

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 1.9

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

13.85%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

8.13%

ASML Holding N.V. - NL0010273215

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on ASML

1.c. Company Highlights

Expensive

Better Quality

Higher Growth

Earnings Beats

Revenues Beats

Revenues Miss

Strong Momentum

Weak Momentum

Fairly Valued

2. ASML's Q4 2025 Earnings: A Record-Breaking Quarter

Business Outlook

Valuation Metrics

Restructuring and Capacity Expansion

China Market and Supply Chain

Long-term Forecast

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.30%)

6. Segments

Semiconductor Equipment and Services

Expected Growth: 8.3%

7. Detailed Products

Lithography Systems

Metrology and Inspection Systems

Software and Services

8. ASML Holding N.V.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: ASML Holding N.V. passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

1190.4$

Current Price

1190.4$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA