ASML Holding N.V. (ASML.AS) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

ASML Holding N.V. develops, produces, markets, sells, and services advanced semiconductor equipment systems consisting of lithography, metrology, and inspection related systems for memory and logic chipmakers.The company provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies.It also offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology solutions to measure the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI e-beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects.

In addition, the company provides computational lithography and software solutions to create applications that enhance the setup of the lithography system; and mature products and services that refurbish used lithography equipment and offers associated services.It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, the Netherlands, Europe, the United States, and rest of Asia.The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001.

ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.

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1.b. Last Insights on ASML

ASML Holding's recent momentum is driven by strong demand for its semiconductor equipment, fueled by the growing need for advanced chip-making technology. The company's confident guidance for next year and its position as a leader in the sector have contributed to investor enthusiasm. BofA Securities recently reaffirmed a Buy rating on the stock, citing DRAM upside and recovery potential in China. ASML's expanding EUV and High-NA momentum are also driving growth. Its recent quarterly results showed a net profit margin of 29.3%, up from 26.5% last year.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	964
Change Percentage	0.70%
Open	960.6
Previous Close	957.3
Market Cap ( Millions)	376178
Volume	91230
Year High	968
Year Low	508.4
M A 50	881.24
M A 200	706.45

FCF Yield	2.45%
Dividend Yield	0.68%
ROE	54.00%
Debt / Equity	20.99%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	-28.93%
Price To Book	21.24
Price Earnings Ratio	39.75
Price To FCF	40.74
Price To sales	11.7
EV / EBITDA	30.41

2. ASML Holding N.V. Beats Expectations with Strong Q3 2025 Results

ASML Holding N.V. reported a robust Q3 2025 with net sales reaching €7.5 billion, slightly above expectations, driven by a strong performance in its installed base revenue, which came in at €2 billion. The company's gross margin stood at 51.6%, indicating a healthy profitability level. Net income was €2.1 billion, with earnings per share (EPS) at €5.53, beating analyst estimates of €5.49. The company's net bookings were €5.4 billion, with a significant contribution from Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, amounting to €3.6 billion.

Publication Date: Oct -17

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Q3 2025 Revenue::
                                                Net sales reached €7.5 billion, with €2 billion from installed base revenue and a 51.6% gross margin.
Q4 2025 Guidance::
                                                Revenue projected at €9.2-9.8 billion, with installed base revenue of ~€2.1 billion and a 51-53% gross margin.
2025 Full-Year Forecast::
                                                Net sales expected at €32.5 billion, maintaining a 52% gross margin, driven by strong EUV demand (€3.6 billion in Q3 bookings).
Strategic AI Partnership::
                                                ASML acquired an 11% stake in Mistral AI to enhance software integration, alongside shipping the first XT260 advanced packaging product.
2030 Long-Term Targets::
                                                Revenue projected at €44-60 billion with a 56-60% gross margin, fueled by AI-driven semiconductor demand and 3D integration opportunities.

                                

Guidance and Outlook

For Q4 2025, ASML guided revenue to be between €9.2-9.8 billion, with an installed base revenue of approximately €2.1 billion and a gross margin expected to be between 51-53%. For the full year 2025, the company expects net sales to be around €32.5 billion with a gross margin of around 52%. Looking ahead to 2026, despite expectations of lower demand from Chinese customers, ASML anticipates net sales to be at least at the 2025 level, with a product mix favoring EUV.

Strategic Developments and Long-term Prospects

The company has been making significant strides in its technology and strategic partnerships, including a partnership with Mistral AI, where ASML took an 11% stake. ASML's technology advancements include significant progress in EUV, with 300,000 wafers run on INA, and the shipment of its first advanced packaging product, XT260. The company sees long-term opportunities driven by AI, expecting it to drive more advanced semiconductor applications and 3D integration. By 2030, ASML expects revenue to be between €44-60 billion, with a gross margin between 56-60%.

Valuation and Analyst Estimates

Analysts estimate ASML's revenue growth for the next year at 4.4%. The company's current valuation metrics, such as a P/E Ratio of 36.06 and an EV/EBITDA of 27.57, indicate a premium valuation. However, with a ROIC of 34.85% and an ROE of 54.0%, ASML demonstrates strong profitability. The market seems to have priced in a significant level of performance, but the company's strong track record and long-term prospects may justify the current valuation levels.

3. NewsRoom

Better Artificial Intelligence Stock: ASML vs. Nebius Group

Dec -04

Source:

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML): A Bull Case Theory

Dec -04

Source:

Is It Too Late to Consider ASML After Its Strong 2025 Share Price Rally?

Dec -04

Source:

Why Analysts Say ASML Is the Top Semiconductor Pick Heading Into 2026

Dec -04

Source:

Huawei's 2022 patent details novel technique to make 2-nm-class chips without EUV tool

Dec -04

Source:

xLight's Pat Gelsinger talks light source tech for chip production

Dec -03

Source:

ASML Named Bank of America's Top Semiconductor Pick for 2026

Dec -03

Source:

ASML, Oracle, Roblox: Top Analyst Calls

Dec -03

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.30%)

6. Segments

Semiconductor Equipment and Services

Expected Growth: 8.3%

ASML's growth is driven by increasing demand for semiconductors, advancements in 5G and IoT technologies, and continuous innovation in chip design and manufacturing.

7. Detailed Products

Lithography Systems

ASML's lithography systems are used to create the patterns that define the transistors and interconnects on silicon wafers. These systems are critical to the production of semiconductors.

Metrology and Inspection Systems

ASML's metrology and inspection systems are used to measure and inspect the patterns created on silicon wafers, ensuring that they meet the required specifications.

Software and Services

ASML's software and services provide solutions for optimizing the performance of lithography systems, as well as supporting the development of new semiconductor technologies.

8. ASML Holding N.V.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for ASML Holding N.V. is medium due to the presence of alternative technologies and suppliers in the semiconductor industry.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low due to the specialized nature of ASML's products and the limited number of customers in the semiconductor industry.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers in the market, but ASML's dependence on a few critical suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry in the semiconductor industry, including significant capital requirements and technological expertise.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the presence of established competitors in the semiconductor industry, leading to a highly competitive market.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	25.80%
Debt Cost	3.95%
Equity Weight	74.20%
Equity Cost	9.59%
WACC	8.13%
Leverage	34.78%

11. Quality Control: ASML Holding N.V. passed 6 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

QUALCOMM

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 3.4

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 8.1

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

ASML Holding

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 0.5

Growth: 8.0

Quality: 8.5

Yield: 1.2

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

NXP Semiconductors

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 2.0

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 6.7

Yield: 3.8

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

ASM International

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 0.5

Growth: 8.2

Quality: 7.6

Yield: 1.2

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Infineon Technologies

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 1.9

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 1.2

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

STMicroelectronics

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 5.6

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 1.2

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

13.95%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

8.13%

ASML Holding N.V. - NL0010273215

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on ASML

1.c. Company Highlights

Expensive

Better Quality

Higher Growth

Earnings Beats

Revenues Beats

Revenues Miss

Strong Momentum

Weak Momentum

Fairly Valued

2. ASML Holding N.V. Beats Expectations with Strong Q3 2025 Results

Guidance and Outlook

Strategic Developments and Long-term Prospects

Valuation and Analyst Estimates

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.30%)

6. Segments

Semiconductor Equipment and Services

Expected Growth: 8.3%

7. Detailed Products

Lithography Systems

Metrology and Inspection Systems

Software and Services

8. ASML Holding N.V.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: ASML Holding N.V. passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

964.0$

Current Price

964$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA