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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Alfen N.V., through its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, develops, produces, and sells products, systems, and services related to the electricity grid.The company offers smart grid solutions, including secondary transformer substations, devices for grid automation, and proprietary back-end systems for remote management and control of electricity grids, as well as micro-grids, grid connections, and supplementary offerings for the greenhouse horticulture sector, EV fast-charging hubs, and solar PV farms.It also provides energy storage systems comprising modular energy storage systems for load balancing, peak shaving, grid frequency control, and energy trading solutions, as well as stationary and mobile battery energy storage solutions.


In addition, the company offers smart and connected electric vehicle chargers for use at the home, office, and public locations, as well as an online management platform for charging infrastructure and standardized solutions for smart charging, load balancing, and charging hubs.It operates primarily in the Netherlands, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Poland, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the rest of Europe.The company was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Almere, the Netherlands.

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1.b. Last Insights on ALFEN

Alfen N.V.'s recent performance was driven by its Full Year 2024 Earnings release, where revenue declined 3.3% to €487.6m, and the company reported a net loss. Despite this, the company's stock has been identified as potentially trading below its estimated value, with estimates suggesting it may be undervalued. This could present an opportunity for investors to capitalize on market inefficiencies and secure the company's assets at a lower price than its estimated worth.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Alfen's H1 2025 Earnings: Navigating Challenges and Opportunities

Alfen reported a revenue decline of 13.9% to EUR 211.5 million in the first half of 2025, primarily driven by lower revenues in Energy Storage Systems and EV Charging. Despite this, the company improved its gross margin to 29.1% from 22.3% in H1 2024, mainly due to lower component costs in EV Charging and positive price effects on Twins. Adjusted EBITDA also improved, reaching 6.2% compared to 5.5% in H1 2024, thanks to cost reduction measures. The actual EPS came out at '0.06', significantly lower than estimates at '1.15'.

Publication Date: Aug -31

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Decline: H1 2025 revenue fell 13.9% to EUR 211.5M, driven by 22.8% drop in EV Charging and 27.1% decline in Energy Storage.
  • Gross Margin Improvement: Rose to 29.1% from 22.3% in H1 2024, led by 44.1% margin in EV Charging due to lower component costs.
  • Adjusted EBITDA Growth: Improved to 6.2% from 5.5% year-on-year, supported by cost reductions and margin gains in EV Charging.
  • Leadership Transition: Michael Colijn appointed CEO effective October 1, 2025, succeeding Marco Roeleveld.
  • 2026 Guidance Cut: Revenue growth revised to 0-5% YoY (from prior growth ambition) due to Smart Grid Solutions challenges and market uncertainty.

Business Line Performance

The Smart Grid Solutions division reported a revenue increase of 3.9% to EUR 97.1 million, with a gross margin of 22.4% due to lower component costs. However, the division faced market challenges like permitting delays and labor shortages. In contrast, EV Charging revenue declined by 22.8% to EUR 61.8 million, mainly due to increased competition, while Energy Storage revenue declined by 27.1% compared to H1 2024, in line with expectations.

Guidance and Outlook

Alfen reiterated its 2025 guidance of revenue between EUR 430 million and EUR 480 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 5% to 8%. However, due to continued market challenges, the 2026 revenue ambition was adjusted to 0% to 5% year-on-year growth, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 5% to 8%. The company expects margin pressures to continue, particularly in EV Charging, but is implementing cost-saving measures to mitigate this.

Valuation and Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of -7.95 and an EV/EBITDA of -59.01, the market is pricing in significant challenges for Alfen. The company's ROE (%) is -16.87, indicating negative returns on equity. However, the Free Cash Flow Yield (%) is 19.57, suggesting that the company has a decent cash flow generation. As Alfen navigates the challenges in its business lines, its ability to improve profitability and return on equity will be crucial in driving the stock price.

Management and Strategy

The appointment of Michael Colijn as the new CEO, effective October 1st, marks a significant change in leadership. Alfen is focusing on cost control and expects to leverage revenue growth. The company is also implementing additional cost-saving measures beyond the 15% headcount reduction last year. As the company adapts to the changing market landscape, its ability to execute its strategy will be closely watched by investors.

3. NewsRoom

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Alfen N.V.'s (AMS:ALFEN) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 20% Below Its Share Price

Sep -20

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Alfen First Half 2025 Earnings: €0.06 loss per share (vs €0.51 loss in 1H 2024)

Aug -23

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Institutions along with retail investors who hold considerable shares inAlfen N.V. (AMS:ALFEN) come under pressure; lose 37% of holdings value

May -16

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Is Alfen N.V. (AMS:ALFEN) Trading At A 28% Discount?

Mar -22

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Alfen Full Year 2024 Earnings: EPS Misses Expectations

Feb -15

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3 Stocks That May Be Trading Below Estimated Value

Jan -30

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3 Stocks Estimated To Be Trading Below Intrinsic Value In January 2025

Jan -01

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Alfen N.V.'s (AMS:ALFEN) Fundamentals Look Pretty Strong: Could The Market Be Wrong About The Stock?

Nov -28

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (12.34%)

6. Segments

Smart Grid Solutions

Expected Growth: 12%

Alfen N.V.'s Smart Grid Solutions growth is driven by increasing demand for renewable energy integration, grid resilience, and energy efficiency. Governments' decarbonization policies and investments in grid modernization also fuel growth. Additionally, the rising adoption of electric vehicles and decentralized energy generation further boost demand for Alfen's smart grid solutions, resulting in 12% growth.

Energy Storage Systems

Expected Growth: 14%

Alfen N.V.'s Energy Storage Systems growth is driven by increasing demand for renewable energy, government incentives for grid-scale energy storage, and declining battery costs. Additionally, the rising need for grid resilience and stability, as well as the growing adoption of electric vehicles, contribute to the 14% growth rate.

Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment

Expected Growth: 11%

Alfen N.V.'s 11% growth in Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment is driven by increasing adoption of electric vehicles, government incentives for EV infrastructure development, and rising demand for fast-charging solutions. Additionally, partnerships with automakers and expanding into new markets contribute to the growth.

7. Detailed Products

Smart Grid Solutions

Alfen's Smart Grid Solutions provide a comprehensive range of products and services to manage and optimize energy distribution, including grid automation, energy storage, and electric vehicle charging infrastructure.

Electrification of Transportation

Alfen's Electrification of Transportation solutions provide charging infrastructure and energy storage systems for electric vehicles, enabling the transition to sustainable transportation.

Energy Storage Systems

Alfen's Energy Storage Systems provide scalable and flexible energy storage solutions for grid-scale, commercial, and residential applications.

Grid Automation

Alfen's Grid Automation solutions provide advanced automation and control systems for energy distribution, transmission, and generation.

Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure

Alfen's Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure solutions provide fast, reliable, and scalable charging solutions for electric vehicles.

8. Alfen N.V.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Alfen N.V. operates in a niche market with limited substitutes, but the threat of substitutes is still present due to the increasing adoption of renewable energy sources.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Alfen N.V. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's products and services are highly specialized, making it difficult for customers to switch to alternative suppliers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Alfen N.V. relies on a few key suppliers for critical components, which gives them some bargaining power. However, the company's strong relationships with its suppliers and its ability to negotiate prices mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry in the electrical infrastructure industry. New entrants would need to invest heavily in research and development, manufacturing, and marketing to compete with established players like Alfen N.V.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The electrical infrastructure industry is highly competitive, with several established players competing for market share. Alfen N.V. faces intense competition from companies like Siemens, ABB, and Schneider Electric.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 20.85%
Debt Cost 7.71%
Equity Weight 79.15%
Equity Cost 12.34%
WACC 11.37%
Leverage 26.34%

11. Quality Control: Alfen N.V. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Leclanché

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 0.3

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Stock-Card
KATEK

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 7.2

Quality: 2.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
ADS-TEC Energy

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Alfen

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 7.2

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 2.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Varta

A-Score: 3.0/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 3.1

Yield: 1.2

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Ceres Power

A-Score: 2.6/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

10.32$

Current Price

10.32$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows