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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Iveco Group N.V. engages in the design, production, marketing, sale, servicing, and financing of trucks, commercial vehicles, buses and specialty vehicles for firefighting, defense, and other applications in Italy and internationally.The company operates through three segments: Commercial and Specialty Vehicles, Powertrain, and Financial Services.It offers commercial and specialty vehicles comprising light, medium, and heavy vehicles for the transportation and distribution of goods under the IVECO brand; city and commuter buses under the IVECO BUS and HEULIEZ BUS brands; quarry and mining equipment under the IVECO ASTRA brand; firefighting vehicles under the Magirus brand; and vehicles for civil defense and peace-keeping missions under the Iveco Defence Vehicles brand.


The company also designs, manufactures, and distributes powertrains under the FPT Industrial brand; and combustion engines, alternative propulsion systems, transmission systems, and axles for on- and off-road applications, as well as for marine and power generation.In addition, it offers financial products and services to dealers and customers; and administers wholesale and retail financing services to customers for the purchase or lease of new and used vehicles sold by brand dealers and distributors.Iveco Group N.V. was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Turin, Italy.

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1.b. Last Insights on IVG

Iveco Group N.V.'s recent performance was driven by positive developments, including the announcement of its Q2 2025 earnings, which showcased disciplined execution and positive free cash flow. The company's decision to sell its Defence Business to Leonardo for an enterprise value of €1.7 billion is expected to create an Italy-based European champion in the land defence segment. Additionally, the potential sale of Iveco Group to Tata Motors, which would create a global player in commercial vehicles, has garnered significant attention.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Iveco Group's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Mixed Bag

Iveco Group reported a consolidated net revenue of EUR 3.1 billion for Q3 2025, representing a 3.6% contraction year-over-year. The adjusted EBIT margin for industrial activities was 2.5%, down 210 basis points versus Q3 2024. The adjusted diluted EPS came in at EUR 0.15, significantly lower than analyst estimates of EUR 0.73. The company's free cash flow absorption was EUR 513 million, broadly in line with last year's performance.

Publication Date: Nov -09

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Decline:: Consolidated net revenues contracted 3.6% YoY to EUR 3.1 billion, with industrial activities falling 3% to EUR 3 billion.
  • Adjusted EBIT Margin Drop:: Industrial activities EBIT margin fell 210 bps to 2.5%, driven by volume/mix headwinds (-EUR 7M) despite SG&A cost savings (+EUR 17M).
  • Bus Unit Growth:: Bus net revenues surged 31.4% YoY to EUR 719 million, achieving a 4% adjusted EBIT margin despite production ramp-up costs.
  • Free Cash Flow Absorption:: Q3 free cash flow outflow of EUR 513 million remained in line with 2024, with EUR 4 billion liquidity covering future maturities.
  • Revised Full-Year Guidance:: Industrial adjusted EBIT now projected at EUR 700–750 million, down from prior guidance, due to slower LCV recovery and NNA plant costs.

Segment Performance

The Truck business unit reported net revenues of EUR 2 billion, down 11% year-over-year. The Bus business unit saw a 31.4% increase in net revenues, reaching EUR 719 million. The Powertrain segment reported net revenues broadly in line year-over-year at EUR 745 million. The adjusted EBIT margin for the Truck business was 2.9%, while Bus and Powertrain reported margins of 4% and 5.1%, respectively.

Valuation Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of 15.2 and an EV/EBITDA of 5.18, the company's valuation appears reasonable. However, the significant miss on EPS estimates raises concerns about the company's ability to meet expectations. The ROE of 12.46% and ROIC of 7.22% indicate a decent return on equity and invested capital, respectively.

Guidance and Outlook

Iveco Group has revised its full-year 2025 financial guidance, with the adjusted EBIT expected to be between EUR 830 million and EUR 880 million. The company remains optimistic about the outlook for 2026, with indications of a gradual uptake in the LCV market. As Olof Persson, CEO, stated, "we have a good feeling about the activity level for medium-heavy, and we will see impacts from the launch of the model year '24."

Market Share and Competition

The company's EU heavy truck market share came in at 6.4%, down from its historic run rate. The launch of the new model is expected to drive growth, but the company needs time to see the actual market development. The current market share and the expected growth are key factors to watch in the coming quarters.

3. NewsRoom

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PlusAI Honored in Inc.’s 2025 Best in Business Awards for Best Collaborations and Best in Innovation

Dec -04

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IDV to supply 658 additional trucks to the Italian Army

Dec -01

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How Weaker Sales and Earnings Will Impact Iveco Group (BIT:IVG) Investors

Nov -13

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FPT seals a trio of important new contracts for the agriculture segment

Nov -11

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Iveco Group NV (IVCGF) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges with Strategic ...

Nov -06

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Iveco Group 2025 Third Quarter Results

Nov -06

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IVECO BUS signs major framework agreements with Île-de-France Mobilités to supply up to 4,000 vehicles

Oct -29

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Iveco Group N.V. to present its 2025 Third Quarter Results on 6th November 2025

Oct -23

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (3.22%)

6. Segments

Commercial and Specialty Vehicles

Expected Growth: 3.5%

Iveco Group N.V.'s Commercial and Specialty Vehicles segment growth of 3.5% is driven by increasing demand for sustainable transportation solutions, government incentives for eco-friendly vehicles, and growing infrastructure investments in emerging markets. Additionally, the segment benefits from Iveco's strong brand reputation, innovative product offerings, and strategic partnerships with key customers.

Powertrain

Expected Growth: 2.8%

Iveco Group N.V.'s Powertrain segment growth of 2.8% is driven by increasing demand for commercial vehicles, particularly in Europe and Latin America, as well as the adoption of alternative propulsion systems, such as electric and hybrid powertrains, which are gaining traction in the market.

Eliminations and Other

Expected Growth: 2.2%

Iveco Group N.V.'s Eliminations and Other segment growth of 2.2% is driven by increased intersegment sales, improved operational efficiency, and favorable foreign exchange rates. Additionally, the company's strategic initiatives, such as cost-saving programs and investments in digitalization, have contributed to the segment's growth.

Financial Services

Expected Growth: 3.8%

Iveco Group N.V.'s 3.8% growth in Financial Services is driven by increasing demand for financing solutions, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on digitalization and innovation in financial products, such as leasing and rental services, has contributed to the growth.

7. Detailed Products

Iveco Trucks

Iveco Group N.V. offers a range of commercial trucks, including heavy-duty, medium-duty, and light-duty trucks, designed for various applications such as construction, transportation, and logistics.

Iveco Buses

Iveco Group N.V. provides a variety of buses, including city buses, intercity buses, and coaches, designed for public transportation, tourism, and special needs.

Iveco Defense Vehicles

Iveco Group N.V. manufactures a range of military vehicles, including armored personnel carriers, infantry fighting vehicles, and logistics vehicles, designed for military and defense applications.

Iveco Astra

Iveco Group N.V. offers a range of heavy-duty quarry and construction equipment, including dumpers, mixers, and concrete pumps, designed for heavy construction and mining applications.

Iveco Powertrain

Iveco Group N.V. provides a range of powertrain solutions, including engines, transmissions, and axles, designed for various industrial and automotive applications.

Iveco Services

Iveco Group N.V. offers a range of services, including maintenance, repair, and financing solutions, designed to support customers throughout the vehicle lifecycle.

8. Iveco Group N.V.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Iveco Group N.V. operates in the commercial vehicle industry, which has a moderate threat of substitutes. While there are alternative modes of transportation, such as air and sea freight, they are not always viable substitutes for commercial vehicles.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Iveco Group N.V. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's products are often customized to meet specific customer needs, making it difficult for customers to switch to alternative suppliers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Iveco Group N.V. relies on a network of suppliers for components and raw materials. While the company has some bargaining power due to its size, suppliers also have some leverage due to the specialized nature of their products.

Threat Of New Entrants

The commercial vehicle industry has significant barriers to entry, including high capital requirements, regulatory hurdles, and the need for specialized expertise. This makes it difficult for new entrants to enter the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The commercial vehicle industry is highly competitive, with several established players competing for market share. Iveco Group N.V. faces intense competition from companies such as Daimler, Volkswagen, and Volvo.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 81.01%
Debt Cost 12.07%
Equity Weight 18.99%
Equity Cost 12.07%
WACC 12.07%
Leverage 426.59%

11. Quality Control: Iveco Group N.V. passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

18.65$

Current Price

18.65$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows