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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

NIBE Industrier AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells various energy-efficient solutions for indoor climate comfort, and components and solutions for intelligent heating and control in Nordic countries, rest of Europe, North America, and internationally.The company operates through three business areas: NIBE Climate Solutions, NIBE Element, and NIBE Stoves.The NIBE Climate Solutions business area offers indoor climate comfort products, such as heat pumps, ventilation products and air conditioning, climate control systems, water heaters and accumulator tanks, district heating products, PV panels, domestic boilers, commercial washing machines, and tumble dryers for homes, apartment blocks, and commercial properties.


The NIBE Element business area provides various components and solutions for heating and control, which include tubular, aluminum, foil, thick film, PTC, high-power, and ceramic elements, as well as open spirals and tapes, heating cables and jackets, vacuum brazing, heat pump technology, resistors, heat exchangers, temperature sensors, flexible hoses, and control equipment to domestic and household appliances; commercial products and professional kitchens; energy; transport; advanced technology; medicine; and aviation sectors, as well as industrial projects sectors.The NIBE Stoves business area offers free-standing, wood-burning, gas, and electric stoves; heat-retaining products; and chimney systems, as well as accessories.NIBE Industrier AB (publ) was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Markaryd, Sweden.

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1.b. Last Insights on NIBE

NIBE Industrier AB faced challenges from headwinds in the Nordic market and currency fluctuations. Despite robust performance in Climate Solutions with significant profit improvements, the company navigated a complex environment. With no recent share buyback announcements, focus remains on organic growth. A 'Buy' rating from analysts at SEB (Source: Bloomberg) reflects optimism. The Q3 2025 earnings call highlighted resilience, yet short-term prospects may be influenced by market conditions and foreign exchange dynamics.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Disappointing EPS Misses Estimates Despite Revenue Growth

The company's Q3 financial performance was marked by a 4.6% organic growth, driven by a gradual recovery across various markets, with Germany, Sweden, and the Netherlands showing signs of improvement. However, the EPS came out at 0.3, significantly lower than the estimated 0.4834. The operating margin stood at 11.3%, in line with the company's target. Revenue growth was a positive note, but the earnings per share miss is a concern. As Gerteric Lindquist mentioned, "We're moving in the right direction with 7% growth and increasing profit per share," but the actual EPS was a disappointment.

Publication Date: Nov -15

📋 Highlights
  • Organic Growth & Margin Improvement: Achieved 4.6% organic growth with operating margin at 11.3%, aligning with annual target.
  • Climate Solutions Outperformance: 7% organic growth and 11.9% operating margin, driven by NIBE Element’s 6.8% margin despite currency headwinds.
  • Balance Sheet Strength: Operating cash flow rose 62% YoY, net debt reduced to SEK 5.6 billion, and ROCE/ROE above 9%.
  • Regional Divergence: Germany, Sweden, Netherlands recovering; U.S. stable; Italy strong commercially, while Nordic market saw 1.5% Q3 decline.
  • Inventory & Pricing Caution: Inventory levels targeted for reduction to 2020 levels; cautious on price cuts to preserve premium product value.

Segmental Performance

Climate Solutions showed a robust performance with 7% organic growth and a 50% improvement in profit, driven by a strong operating margin of 11.9%. NIBE Element also performed well, with above 6% organic growth, despite a headwind from the Swedish currency. Stoves defended their position well, despite challenging market conditions, and generated a profit. The segmental performance was a mixed bag, with some areas showing strength while others faced challenges.

Valuation Metrics

Looking at the valuation metrics, the company's P/E Ratio stands at 25.01, indicating that the stock may be slightly overvalued. The EV/EBITDA ratio is at 20.17, which is relatively high. However, the ROE is at 8.9%, and the ROIC is at 5.92%, indicating a decent return on equity and capital employed. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 5.9%, which may be a reasonable expectation given the current trends.

Guidance and Outlook

The company remains cautiously optimistic about its guidance for the year, targeting a 13% operating margin. The management has maintained its R&D and sales forces, which is expected to pay off in the long run. The company's balance sheet is stable, with a significant improvement in net debt to SEK 5.6 billion. The guidance and outlook seem reasonable, given the current performance and market conditions.

Market Expectations

The market expectations are priced in, with the P/S Ratio at 1.63 and the Dividend Yield at 0.91%. The Free Cash Flow Yield is at 4.92%, indicating a decent return for investors. However, the Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is at 4.78, which may be a concern for some investors. Overall, the valuation metrics indicate that the stock may be slightly overvalued, but the company's performance and guidance are in line with expectations.

3. NewsRoom

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NIBE Industrier AB (NDRBF) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Growth in Climate Solutions ...

Nov -14

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.54%)

6. Segments

Climate Solutions

Expected Growth: 5.5%

NIBE Industrier AB's 5.5% growth in Climate Solutions is driven by increasing demand for sustainable heating solutions, government incentives for renewable energy, and expanding product offerings in heat pumps and energy storage. Additionally, strategic acquisitions and partnerships have enhanced the company's market presence and technological capabilities, further fueling growth.

Element

Expected Growth: 6.2%

NIBE Industrier AB's 6.2% growth is driven by increasing demand for energy-efficient heating solutions, expansion into new markets, and strategic acquisitions. The company's focus on sustainable products and cost savings initiatives also contribute to its growth. Additionally, investments in research and development have enabled NIBE to stay ahead of the competition and capitalize on emerging trends in the industry.

Stoves

Expected Growth: 5.8%

NIBE Industrier AB's 5.8% growth in stoves is driven by increasing demand for eco-friendly heating solutions, government incentives for sustainable energy, and rising consumer awareness of climate change. Additionally, the company's strategic acquisitions and expansion into new markets have contributed to its growth.

Eliminations

Expected Growth: 0.0%

With 0.0% growth, NIBE Industrier AB (publ) faces stagnation. Key fundamental drivers contributing to this flat growth include stagnant demand in the heating technology segment, intense competition, and lack of innovation. Additionally, high raw material costs, inefficient production processes, and limited geographic diversification are hindering the company's ability to expand.

7. Detailed Products

Heat Pumps

NIBE's heat pumps are designed to provide efficient and environmentally friendly heating solutions for residential and commercial buildings.

Boilers

NIBE's boilers offer a range of efficient and reliable heating solutions for residential and commercial applications.

Stoves and Fireplaces

NIBE's stoves and fireplaces provide a cozy and efficient way to heat homes, with a focus on design, functionality, and environmental sustainability.

Ventilation and Air Handling

NIBE's ventilation and air handling solutions provide efficient and healthy indoor air quality for residential and commercial buildings.

Heat Recovery and Energy Storage

NIBE's heat recovery and energy storage solutions optimize energy efficiency and reduce energy costs for residential and commercial buildings.

8. NIBE Industrier AB (publ)'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

NIBE Industrier AB (publ) operates in the heating technology industry, where substitutes are limited. However, there is a growing trend towards renewable energy sources, which could pose a threat to the company's traditional heating products.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

NIBE Industrier AB (publ) has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's products are often customized, making it difficult for customers to switch to alternative suppliers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

NIBE Industrier AB (publ) relies on a few key suppliers for critical components. While the company has some bargaining power due to its size, suppliers may still have some leverage in negotiations.

Threat Of New Entrants

The heating technology industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles. This makes it difficult for new entrants to challenge established players like NIBE Industrier AB (publ).

Intensity Of Rivalry

The heating technology industry is highly competitive, with several established players competing for market share. NIBE Industrier AB (publ) faces intense rivalry from companies like Vaillant, Viessmann, and Bosch.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 41.06%
Debt Cost 5.19%
Equity Weight 58.94%
Equity Cost 10.09%
WACC 8.08%
Leverage 69.66%

11. Quality Control: NIBE Industrier AB (publ) passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
BELIMO

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 0.0

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 8.2

Yield: 5.6

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Tarkett

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 8.1

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 2.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Rockwool

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 5.6

Growth: 7.0

Quality: 7.2

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Travis Perkins

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 8.2

Growth: 1.3

Quality: 2.6

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Marel

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 3.2

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 2.2

Yield: 0.6

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
NIBE Industrier

A-Score: 2.9/10

Value: 2.6

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 1.9

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

36.05$

Current Price

36.05$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows