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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

agilon health, inc.offers healthcare services for seniors through primary care physicians in the communities of the United States.As of December 31, 2021, it served approximately 238,000 senior members, which included 186,300 medicare advantage members and 51,700 medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries.


The company was formerly known as Agilon Health Topco, Inc.and changed its name to agilon health, inc.in March 2021.


agilon health, inc.was founded in 2016 and is based in Austin, Texas.

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1.b. Last Insights on AGL

Breaking News: Agilon Health Inc (NYSE: AGL) is under investigation by law firms Rosen Law Firm and Bragar Eagel & Squire PC for potential securities claims. The investigations stem from allegations that agilon health may have issued misleading business information to investors. No recent earnings release was found. Analysts at various firms have not made recommendations on AGL stock following these developments. The law firms are encouraging shareholders who suffered losses to contact them regarding their rights. AGL investors are awaiting further information on the investigations and potential claims.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Agilon Health's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Challenging Quarter with a Positive Outlook

Agilon Health reported revenue of $1.44 billion for the third quarter of 2025, with a medical margin of negative $57 million and adjusted EBITDA of negative $91 million. The company's EPS came in at -$0.27, missing estimates of -$0.18. The revenue figure is a key indicator of the company's financial performance, and the negative medical margin and adjusted EBITDA highlight the challenges faced by the company. As Ronald Williams noted, the quarter was impacted by lower-than-expected in-year RAF contribution and continued high costs from exited markets.

Publication Date: Nov -11

📋 Highlights
  • 2025 Revenue Guidance:: Reinstated annual revenue range of $5.81 billion to $5.83 billion, reflecting membership shifts and improved payer contracts.
  • Q3 2025 Performance:: Revenue reached $1.44 billion, but adjusted EBITDA was negative $91 million due to lower RAF contributions and exited market costs.
  • 2026 Medical Margin Outlook:: Anticipates a $135 million boost, driven by $150 million lower-than-expected 2025 risk adjustment and operational efficiency.
  • Cash Position:: Closed Q3 with $311 million in cash and marketable securities, plus $172 million in off-balance-sheet ACO cash.

Financial Performance and Guidance

The company's financial performance was affected by various factors, including lower-than-expected risk adjustment performance. For 2025, Agilon Health expects revenue to be in the range of $5.81 billion to $5.83 billion, with medical margins projected to be between negative $5 million to $15 million and adjusted EBITDA guidance range of negative $270 million to negative $245 million. The company's guidance reflects the impact of membership shifts and improved revenue yield from payer contracts.

Outlook for 2026

Agilon Health is optimistic about its prospects for 2026, with expected positive development in the first half and enhanced financial data pipeline ramping to 80% in membership. The company expects to have improved forecasting and lower volatility, as well as significant internal and market-driven tailwinds. These tailwinds include the 9% benchmark rate increase, better-aligned payer contracts, and disciplined cost actions. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 4.2%.

Valuation Metrics

To understand what's priced into Agilon Health's stock, we can look at various valuation metrics. The company's P/S Ratio stands at 0.05, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to its revenue. The EV/EBITDA ratio is -0.47, which is not meaningful due to the company's negative EBITDA. The P/E Ratio is -0.89, and the P/B Ratio is 0.89. These metrics suggest that the stock may be undervalued, but the negative earnings and EBITDA multiples need to be considered with caution.

Operational Highlights

Agilon Health is taking a disciplined approach to payer contracting, focusing on markets with favorable economics and potentially reducing membership in areas where terms are not favorable. The company's Palliative and Heart Failure Program has been successful in reducing medical expense and improving disease burden identification for members. The company's leadership is actively engaged in improving performance and executing on critical priorities.

3. NewsRoom

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AGL Investor News: If You Have Suffered Losses in agilon health, inc. (NYSE: AGL), You Are Encouraged to Contact The Rosen Law Firm About Your Rights

Dec -03

Source: globenewswire.com

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Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C. Encourages Agilon, Soleno, Avita, and Coty Investors to Contact the Firm Regarding Ongoing Investigations

Dec -03

Source: globenewswire.com

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Rosen Law Firm Encourages agilon health, inc. Investors to Inquire About Securities Class Action Investigation - AGL

Dec -02

Source: prnewswire.com

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ROSEN, LEADING INVESTOR COUNSEL, Encourages agilon health, inc. Investors to Inquire About Securities Class Action Investigation – AGL

Dec -01

Source: globenewswire.com

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HALPER SADEH LLC ENCOURAGES LIVE NATION ENTERTAINMENT, INC. SHAREHOLDERS TO CONTACT THE FIRM TO DISCUSS THEIR RIGHTS

Nov -30

Source: prnewswire.com

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AGL Investor News: If You Have Suffered Losses in agilon health, inc. (NYSE: AGL) in Excess of $100K, You Are Encouraged to Contact The Rosen Law Firm About Your Rights

Nov -30

Source: globenewswire.com

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Rosen Law Firm Encourages agilon health, inc. Investors to Inquire About Securities Class Action Investigation - AGL

Nov -27

Source: prnewswire.com

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ROSEN, GLOBAL INVESTOR COUNSEL, Encourages agilon health, inc. Investors to Inquire About Securities Class Action Investigation - AGL

Nov -26

Source: newsfilecorp.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (24.10%)

6. Segments

Medical Services

Expected Growth: 24.1%

Agilon Health's value-based healthcare solutions drive growth through increased adoption of patient-centered care, reducing costs and improving health outcomes, aligning with the shift towards value-based reimbursement models.

Other

Expected Growth: 23.4%

Agilon Health's 'Other' segment is poised for growth driven by increasing adoption of healthcare technology and services, expansion of miscellaneous revenue streams, and strategic partnerships.

7. Detailed Products

Total Care Model

A value-based care model that aligns incentives and rewards healthcare providers for delivering high-quality, cost-effective care

Risk-Based Contracts

Customized contracts that transfer financial risk to Agilon Health, incentivizing high-quality, cost-effective care

Population Health Management

A comprehensive platform for managing patient populations, including data analytics, care coordination, and quality improvement

Care Coordination

A team-based approach to care coordination, leveraging Agilon Health's network of care coordinators and healthcare professionals

Data Analytics

A robust data analytics platform providing insights into patient populations, care patterns, and health outcomes

8. agilon health, inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Agilon Health, Inc. operates in a niche market, providing value-based healthcare services to seniors. While there are some substitutes available, such as traditional fee-for-service models, Agilon's unique approach and partnerships with healthcare providers reduce the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Agilon Health, Inc. serves a large and diverse patient population, reducing the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's value-based care model aligns incentives with patients' needs, reducing the likelihood of customers seeking alternative providers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Agilon Health, Inc. relies on a network of healthcare providers and partners with various suppliers. While the company has some bargaining power due to its scale, suppliers may still exert some influence, particularly in regions with limited provider options.

Threat Of New Entrants

Entering the value-based healthcare market requires significant investments in infrastructure, technology, and partnerships. Barriers to entry, including regulatory hurdles and the need for established relationships with healthcare providers, reduce the threat of new entrants.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The value-based healthcare market is highly competitive, with multiple players vying for market share. Agilon Health, Inc. faces competition from established players and new entrants, increasing the intensity of rivalry in the market.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 5.89%
Debt Cost 6.56%
Equity Weight 94.11%
Equity Cost 6.56%
WACC 6.56%
Leverage 6.26%

11. Quality Control: agilon health, inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Amedisys

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 10.0

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Option Care Health

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 4.5

Growth: 7.3

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Chemed

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 2.9

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 7.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Agilon Health

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 9.6

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Surgery Partners

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 5.9

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 2.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Acadia Healthcare

A-Score: 3.0/10

Value: 5.6

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

0.65$

Current Price

0.65$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows