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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Airbnb, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a platform that enables hosts to offer stays and experiences to guests worldwide.The company's marketplace model connects hosts and guests online or through mobile devices to book spaces and experiences.It primarily offers private rooms, primary homes, or vacation homes.


The company was formerly known as AirBed & Breakfast, Inc.and changed its name to Airbnb, Inc.in November 2010.


Airbnb, Inc.was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on ABNB

Negative drivers behind Airbnb's recent performance include a decline in institutional investor confidence, as evidenced by Baader Bank Aktiengesellschaft's 20.8% reduction in stake during the third quarter. Additionally, the company's upcoming Q4 2025 earnings release on February 12th may lead to increased scrutiny of its financial performance, particularly with regards to revenue and earnings per share. Furthermore, the narrative of a broad rotation out of technology stocks, as seen in recent market trends, may negatively impact Airbnb's stock price.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Airbnb's Strong Q4 2025 Results: A Promising Outlook for 2026

Airbnb delivered a robust Q4 2025, with revenue growing 12% year-over-year to $2.8 billion, surpassing guidance, and gross booking value increasing 16% to $20.4 billion. The company's earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.56, slightly below estimates of $0.666. Nights and seats booked rose 10%, the strongest quarter of the year, driven by the company's deliberate efforts to simplify pricing and enhance the booking experience. Free cash flow generation was also impressive, reaching $4.6 billion in 2025, representing a free cash flow margin of 38%.

Publication Date: Feb -14

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue & Growth:: Q4 2025 revenue rose 12% to $2.8B, exceeding guidance, while gross booking value grew 16% to $20.4B, with nights/seat bookings up 10%.
  • Free Cash Flow:: Generated $4.6B in free cash flow (38% margin) in 2025, with Q1 2026 revenue guided to $2.59B–$2.63B (14–16% growth YoY).
  • APAC Momentum:: India saw 50% growth in Q4 2025, with APAC markets (e.g., Japan) driving expansion, offering significant future potential.
  • Event-Driven Supply:: Added 40,000 Paris listings for 2024 Olympics; replicated playbook for 2026 FIFA World Cup, improving supply-demand alignment.

Regional Performance and Growth Drivers

The Asia Pacific (APAC) region showed relatively stable growth, with varying levels of penetration across different markets. High growth areas included domestic Japan and India, with the latter experiencing 50% growth in the last quarter. The company's global supply position is well-suited to meet demand, and it expects continued progress against its product optimization pilots and new offerings to support incremental growth in 2026.

Investment in AI and Its Potential Impact

Airbnb is investing in AI, focusing on integrating it into customer support, engineering, and the booking experience. The company believes its complex platform provides a significant advantage, and AI innovations are expected to improve customer service, making it more efficient and available in multiple languages. While the company does not expect AI investment to significantly impact its P&L, it anticipates top-line benefits from AI innovations in 2026.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/E Ratio of 29.62 and an EV/EBITDA of 27.51, Airbnb's valuation appears to be reflecting its growth prospects. The company's guidance for revenue acceleration in 2026, driven by growth levers including launches, expansion markets, and services, as well as potential tailwinds from major events, is promising. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 9.9%. Airbnb's strong balance sheet, with $11 billion of corporate cash and investments, and its commitment to product optimization and innovation, position it well for future growth.

Hotel Strategy and Loyalty Program

The company's hotel strategy is expansive, with a focus on boutiques and independents, which fit the Airbnb brand ethos. Hotels currently account for a single-digit percentage of total nights booked but are growing nearly double that of the overall platform. Airbnb is also testing a loyalty program, with promising results so far, and plans to package and release it based on test results.

3. NewsRoom

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Airbnb: Upgrading To Buy Amid Growth Acceleration

Feb -16

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Unlocking Airbnb (ABNB) International Revenues: Trends, Surprises, and Prospects

Feb -16

Source: zacks.com

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Cathie Wood Buys COIN After 16% Jump

Feb -16

Source: gurufocus.com

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Airbnb, Inc. $ABNB Shares Sold by Atria Investments Inc

Feb -14

Source: defenseworld.net

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Airbnb plans to bake in AI features for search, discovery and support

Feb -14

Source: techcrunch.com

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Market Today: AI Fears Rattle Stocks; CPI Cools, Rivian Pops

Feb -13

Source: gurufocus.com

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Airbnb's (ABNB) Growth Strategy Boosts Investor Confidence Despite EPS Miss

Feb -13

Source: gurufocus.com

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Airbnb says a third of its customer support is now handled by AI in the U.S. and Canada

Feb -13

Source: techcrunch.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (23.10%)

6. Segments

Internet Information Providers

Expected Growth: 23.1%

Growing demand for unique travel experiences, increasing adoption of online booking platforms, and Airbnb's strong brand recognition drive growth in the online marketplace for lodging and tourism.

7. Detailed Products

Stays

Airbnb's core product, allowing users to book and list unique homes, apartments, villas, and other types of accommodations.

Experiences

Local-led tours and activities that allow guests to immerse themselves in local cultures and experiences.

Luxury Retreats

High-end, luxury vacation rentals, often featuring private chefs, butlers, and other premium amenities.

Airbnb Plus

A selection of high-quality, vetted listings that meet Airbnb's quality and design standards.

HotelTonight

A last-minute hotel booking service, offering same-day bookings at discounted rates.

Airbnb for Work

A platform for business travelers to book and manage work-related stays, with features for expense tracking and company management.

8. Airbnb, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Airbnb's unique platform and user-generated content make it difficult for substitutes to emerge.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Customers have some bargaining power due to the availability of alternative accommodation options, but Airbnb's strong brand and user base mitigate this power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Suppliers (hosts) have limited bargaining power due to Airbnb's dominant market position and the ease of finding alternative hosts.

Threat Of New Entrants

While new entrants may emerge, Airbnb's strong brand, network effects, and regulatory hurdles create barriers to entry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The short-term rental market is highly competitive, with Airbnb facing competition from established players like Booking.com and Expedia, as well as new entrants.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 20.08%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 79.92%
Equity Cost 10.14%
WACC 8.89%
Leverage 25.13%

11. Quality Control: Airbnb, Inc. passed 8 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Travel + Leisure

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
PulteGroup

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 8.8

Quality: 7.7

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Booking

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 3.6

Growth: 8.7

Quality: 8.0

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Airbnb

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 2.1

Growth: 9.2

Quality: 8.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Royal Caribbean Cruises

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 2.5

Growth: 6.8

Quality: 6.3

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Lennar

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

121.35$

Current Price

121.35$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows