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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for patients with kidney diseases.The company's lead product investigational product candidate is vadadustat, an oral therapy, which is in Phase III development for the treatment of anemia due to chronic kidney disease (CKD) in dialysis-dependent and non-dialysis dependent adult patients.It also offers Auryxia, a ferric citrate that is used to control the serum phosphorus levels in adult patients with DD-CKD on dialysis; and the treatment of iron deficiency anemia in adult patients with CKD not on dialysis.


Akebia Therapeutics, Inc.has collaboration agreements with Otsuka Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd.for the development and commercialization of vadadustat in the United States, the European Union, Russia, China, Australia, Canada, the Middle East, and other countries; and Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation for the development and commercialization of vadadustat in Japan and other Asian countries, as well as research and license agreement with Janssen Pharmaceutica NV for the development and commercialization of hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase targeted compounds worldwide.


The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

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1.b. Last Insights on AKBA

Akebia Therapeutics' recent performance was driven by a series of positive developments. The company's Q1 2025 earnings and revenues topped estimates, with a quarterly earnings of $0.03 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.03 per share. This compares to a loss of $0.09 per share a year ago. Additionally, Akebia's management team participated in a Fireside Chat at the Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference, showcasing the company's presence in the industry. Furthermore, the company published important clinical data on its vadadustat product in the Journal of the American Society of Nephrology, highlighting its commitment to advancing kidney disease treatment.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Akebia's Q3 2025 Earnings: Progress with Vafseo and Financials

Akebia's financial performance in Q3 2025 showed significant growth, driven primarily by the sales of Vafseo and Auryxia. Total revenues reached $58.8 million, a substantial increase of $21 million from Q3 last year. Vafseo sales contributed $14.3 million, while Auryxia sales were $42.5 million. The company reported a net income of approximately $540,000, a significant improvement from the net loss of $20 million in Q3 last year. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.00197, below analyst estimates of $0.015. The company's cash and cash equivalents stood at $166.4 million at the end of Q3.

Publication Date: Nov -30

📋 Highlights
  • Vafseo Launch Success:: Generated $14.3M in Q3 2025 revenue with over 70,000 accessible patients, surpassing recent dialysis drug launches in prescriptions (41 weeks post-launch).
  • Physician Preference:: 50%+ of nephrologists view Vafseo as offering more consistent anemia control than ESAs, with lower hospitalization risks per Win-Odds analysis.
  • Revenue Growth:: Total revenues rose to $58.8M (+$21M YoY), driven by Vafseo ($14.3M) and Auryxia ($42.5M), with net income of $540K (vs. $20M loss in Q3 2024).
  • DaVita Expansion:: Piloted Vafseo in 200,000 patient dialysis network earlier than expected, boosting access and adherence, with 25,000+ new patients added since launch.
  • 2026 Access Target:: Aims to expand Vafseo access to 7x current levels by 2026, addressing operational hurdles while maintaining 85% refill rates and 5% dose increase YoY.

Operational Highlights

The launch of Vafseo has been a key focus for Akebia, with the treatment generating more total prescriptions than any recent launch in dialysis through 41 weeks. The company has been working to address operational challenges, including patient adherence and logistics. By the end of Q3, accessible patients had increased to almost 70,000. The pilot program with DaVita was successful, leading to the rollout of Vafseo to its entire community of 200,000 patients sooner than expected. According to CEO John Butler, "We're gaining access to patients, expecting 7x more by '26."

Valuation Metrics

Akebia's current valuation metrics indicate a mixed picture. The P/S Ratio stands at 1.86, while the EV/EBITDA ratio is 21.95. The company's ROE is negative at -137.67%, and the ROIC is 6.96%. Analysts estimate revenue growth at 22.4% for next year, which may impact these metrics positively if achieved. The current valuation may already reflect some of these growth expectations.

Product Pipeline and Market Dynamics

Vafseo's impact on hospitalization outcomes has garnered positive feedback from physicians, with the company planning to confirm the results prospectively with the VOICE trial. Auryxia continues to be a significant revenue contributor, with no generic version having entered the market yet, despite expectations of approval in March. The delay in generic entry has been beneficial for Akebia, and the company expects to continue benefiting from the current market dynamics.

Future Outlook

Akebia expects to enter 2026 with significant growth in patient access to Vafseo, anticipating 7 times the number of patients who have access compared to the start of the year. The company is addressing operational issues and driving demand from prescribers. The switch to TIW dosing may impact patient starts in Q4, but the company is optimistic about long-term growth. With a strong cash position and a promising product pipeline, Akebia is poised for future success, contingent on its ability to execute on its operational challenges and capitalize on market opportunities.

3. NewsRoom

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Comparing NLS Pharmaceutics (NASDAQ:NCEL) & Akebia Therapeutics (NASDAQ:AKBA)

Dec -04

Source: defenseworld.net

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Akebia Therapeutics Reports Inducement Grants Under Nasdaq Listing Rule 5635(c)(4)

Dec -01

Source: globenewswire.com

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Akebia Announces Establishment of Rare Kidney Disease Pipeline

Dec -01

Source: globenewswire.com

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Q32 Bio Sells Complement Inhibitor ADX-097

Dec -01

Source: prnewswire.com

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Akebia Therapeutics to Present at the Piper Sandler 37th Annual Healthcare Conference

Nov -24

Source: globenewswire.com

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Acadian Asset Management LLC Takes Position in Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. $AKBA

Nov -14

Source: defenseworld.net

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Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA) Loses 39.9% in 4 Weeks, Here's Why a Trend Reversal May be Around the Corner

Nov -11

Source: zacks.com

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Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (AKBA) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -10

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.97%)

6. Segments

Novel Therapeutics

Expected Growth: 8.97%

Akebia Therapeutics' Novel Therapeutics segment growth of 8.97% is driven by increasing adoption of Vadadustat, a novel oral therapy for anemia in chronic kidney disease patients. Strong clinical trial results, expanding commercial presence, and growing demand for innovative treatments in the nephrology space contribute to this growth.

7. Detailed Products

Auryxia

An oral tablet formulation of ferric citrate, a phosphate binder indicated for the control of serum phosphorus levels in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) on dialysis.

Feraheme

An intravenous iron replacement therapy for the treatment of iron deficiency anemia in adult patients with CKD.

8. Akebia Therapeutics, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. has a moderate threat of substitutes due to the presence of alternative treatments for anemia and other diseases. However, the company's innovative products and strong R&D pipeline mitigate this threat to some extent.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. has a low bargaining power of customers due to the lack of negotiating power among patients and healthcare providers. The company's products are often reimbursed by insurance companies, which reduces the bargaining power of customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. has a moderate bargaining power of suppliers due to the presence of multiple suppliers for raw materials and services. However, the company's dependence on a few key suppliers for certain components increases the bargaining power of suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. faces a high threat of new entrants due to the growing demand for innovative treatments and the presence of several biotech companies with similar product pipelines. The company's strong intellectual property portfolio and regulatory approvals mitigate this threat to some extent.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. operates in a highly competitive industry with several established players and new entrants. The company faces intense rivalry from companies such as Amgen, Johnson & Johnson, and Pfizer, which have strong product pipelines and marketing capabilities.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 147.31%
Debt Cost 5.79%
Equity Weight -47.31%
Equity Cost 8.61%
WACC 4.45%
Leverage -311.39%

11. Quality Control: Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Puma Biotechnology

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 8.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 2.0

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CytomX Therapeutics

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Value: 5.7

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 9.8

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Volatility: 0.3

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Harmony Biosciences

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 9.4

Quality: 9.0

Yield: 0.0

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iTeos Therapeutics

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Value: 7.8

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

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Akebia Therapeutics

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Amylyx Pharmaceuticals

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 8.2

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 7.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 1.7

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

1.58$

Current Price

1.58$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows