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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Ameren Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a public utility holding company in the United States.It operates through four segments: Ameren Missouri, Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution, Ameren Illinois Natural Gas, and Ameren Transmission.The company engages in the rate-regulated electric generation, transmission, and distribution activities; and rate-regulated natural gas distribution and transmission businesses.


It primarily generates electricity through coal, nuclear, and natural gas, as well as renewable sources, such as hydroelectric, wind, methane gas, and solar.The company serves residential, commercial, and industrial customers.Ameren Corporation was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri.

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1.b. Last Insights on AEE

Ameren Corporation's recent performance was driven by a 20% year-over-year increase in total operating revenues to $1.94 billion, beating estimates by 10.3%. The company's Q4 earnings, although missing estimates at $0.77 per share, showed growth from $0.60 per share in the prior year. Additionally, Ameren's board of directors raised dividends by nearly 6%, increasing shareholder value.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Ameren's Q3 2025 Earnings: Strong Performance and Growth Prospects

Ameren reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $2.17 per share, surpassing analyst estimates of $2.1 per share, and representing a significant increase from $1.87 per share in the third quarter of 2024. The company's strong financial performance was driven by investments in electric and natural gas infrastructure, new energy generation resources, and robust sales growth in Ameren Missouri's service territory. The revenue growth was accompanied by a disciplined approach to cost management, positioning the company for long-term success.

Publication Date: Nov -10

📋 Highlights
  • Adjusted Earnings Growth:: Q3 2025 adjusted EPS rose to $2.17/share from $1.87/share in Q3 2024, reflecting infrastructure and generation investments.
  • Infrastructure Investment:: Deployed $3B in 2025 for grid upgrades, replacing 19,800 electric poles in Missouri/Illinois to enhance reliability.
  • Earnings Guidance Raised:: 2025 EPS guidance increased to $4.90–$5.10 (up from $4.85–$5.05), with 2026 targeting $5.25–$5.45 (+8.2% growth over 2025 midpoint).
  • Data Center Pipeline:: 3GW signed construction agreements in Missouri, with 2GW in advanced discussions and 850MW incremental demand in Illinois.
  • Capital Plan Expansion:: 10-year capital plan raised by $5B to $68B, focusing on grid, generation, and tech investments for 6–8% annual earnings growth (2025–2029).

Operational Highlights

In the first three quarters of 2025, Ameren deployed over $3 billion in critical infrastructure upgrades, including replacing 11,300 electric distribution poles in Missouri and over 8,500 in Illinois. The company also made significant progress on its preferred resource plan, investing over $825 million in new or existing generation resources. This investment is expected to drive future growth and support the company's long-term earnings guidance.

Growth Prospects and Guidance

Ameren expects long-term earnings growth of 6-8% compound annually from 2025 through 2029, driven by a strong anticipated compound annual rate base growth of 9.2%. The company's earnings growth guidance for 2025 is $4.90 to $5.10, up from the original guidance range of $4.85 to $5.05. For 2026, Ameren expects diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $5.25 to $5.45, representing 8.2% growth compared to the original 2025 earnings guidance midpoint of $4.95. With a current P/E Ratio of 20.04, the market is pricing in a certain level of growth, which Ameren is well-positioned to deliver.

Data Center Growth and Investment Opportunities

The company is experiencing significant interest from data center customers, with executed construction agreements expanding to 3 gigawatts in Missouri and expected incremental energy demand from data centers totaling 850 megawatts in Downstate Illinois. Ameren has a growing pipeline of investment opportunities, standing at over $68 billion, and expects to provide further details in February on planned capital investments for 2026 through 2030. The increased demand from data centers is expected to drive sales growth, with the company targeting 1 gigawatt of sales growth by 2029 and 1.5 gigawatts by 2032.

Regulatory Proceedings and Legislative Updates

The Ameren Illinois natural gas distribution rate review is pending, requesting a $135 million annual base rate increase, while the Administrative Law Judge recommended an annual base rate increase of $91 million. The company is also monitoring the Illinois Omnibus Energy bill, which calls for an integrated resource planning process and establishes an energy storage procurement process. Ameren views the ROE change in Missouri as neutral, with potential for incremental investment and opportunities for earnings growth.

3. NewsRoom

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PPL vs. AEE: Which Dividend-Paying Utility Looks More Attractive?

Nov -27

Source: zacks.com

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Stock Traders Buy High Volume of Call Options on Ameren (NYSE:AEE)

Nov -27

Source: defenseworld.net

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Nuclear Energy Stocks Gain Traction as Clean Power Demand Surges

Nov -25

Source: zacks.com

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State regulators approve Ameren Missouri's plan to reliably serve new large businesses, boosting state's economy while safeguarding consumers

Nov -24

Source: prnewswire.com

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Here's Why AEE Stock Deserves a Place in Your Portfolio Right Now

Nov -19

Source: zacks.com

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3 Low-Beta Utility Stocks to Navigate Through Market Volatility

Nov -19

Source: zacks.com

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Renewable Energy & Battery Stocks to Watch as Renewables Beat Coal

Nov -13

Source: zacks.com

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Buy These 5 Stocks With Solid Sales Growth Despite Volatile Markets

Nov -10

Source: zacks.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.67%)

6. Segments

Ameren Missouri

Expected Growth: 5.8%

Ameren Missouri's 5.8% growth is driven by increasing electricity demand from industrial and commercial customers, investments in grid modernization and renewable energy, and rate base growth from infrastructure upgrades. Additionally, the segment benefits from a constructive regulatory environment and a strong economy in the Missouri region.

Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution

Expected Growth: 5.5%

Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution's 5.5% growth is driven by increasing electricity demand from residential and commercial customers, investments in grid modernization and infrastructure upgrades, and favorable regulatory policies. Additionally, the segment benefits from a strong economy in Illinois, leading to higher energy consumption and a growing customer base.

Ameren Illinois Natural Gas

Expected Growth: 5.2%

Ameren Illinois Natural Gas' 5.2% growth is driven by increasing demand for natural gas in the Midwest, infrastructure investments, and rate base growth. Additionally, the segment benefits from a strong regulatory environment, allowing for timely recovery of costs and investments. Furthermore, Ameren's focus on grid modernization and customer growth initiatives also contribute to the segment's growth.

Ameren Transmission

Expected Growth: 6.2%

Ameren Transmission's 6.2% growth is driven by increasing demand for reliable and efficient energy transmission, strategic investments in grid modernization, and a strong regulatory environment supporting infrastructure development. Additionally, the company's focus on renewable energy integration and transmission system upgrades contributes to its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Electricity

Ameren Corporation generates and distributes electricity to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across Illinois and Missouri.

Natural Gas

Ameren Corporation provides natural gas services to customers in Illinois, offering a safe and reliable supply of natural gas for heating, cooking, and other uses.

Transmission Services

Ameren Corporation operates a high-voltage transmission system, connecting power plants to the grid and ensuring reliable transmission of electricity across the Midwest.

Distribution Services

Ameren Corporation provides distribution services, delivering electricity and natural gas to customers through a network of power lines, substations, and pipelines.

Renewable Energy

Ameren Corporation invests in renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar power, to reduce carbon emissions and promote sustainability.

Energy Efficiency Programs

Ameren Corporation offers energy efficiency programs, providing customers with incentives and resources to reduce energy consumption and lower their energy bills.

8. Ameren Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Ameren Corporation operates in the utility industry, which has a moderate threat of substitutes. While there are alternative energy sources available, such as solar and wind power, they are not yet widely adopted and are often more expensive than traditional energy sources.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Ameren Corporation's customers have limited bargaining power due to the lack of alternative energy providers in the region. This gives the company a degree of pricing power and reduces the risk of customer defection.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Ameren Corporation's suppliers, such as fuel providers, have some bargaining power due to the company's dependence on them. However, the company's size and scale of operations give it some negotiating power to mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

The utility industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles. This makes it difficult for new entrants to challenge Ameren Corporation's market position.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Ameren Corporation operates in a moderately competitive industry, with several other utility companies operating in the region. While there is some competition, the company's strong brand and established customer base help to mitigate the risk of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 59.26%
Debt Cost 3.97%
Equity Weight 40.74%
Equity Cost 6.16%
WACC 4.86%
Leverage 145.44%

11. Quality Control: Ameren Corporation passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Pinnacle West Capital

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Value: 5.9

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 10.0

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CenterPoint Energy

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 5.7

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 10.0

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Ameren

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 5.3

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 10.0

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PPL

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Value: 4.9

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 10.0

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Alliant Energy

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 10.0

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CMS Energy

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 4.1

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 10.0

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

99.86$

Current Price

99.86$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows