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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

American Public Education, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and campus-based postsecondary education.The company operates through three segments: American Public University System, Rasmussen University, and Hondros College of Nursing.It offers 130 degree programs and 111 certificate programs in various fields of study, including business administration, health science, technology, criminal justice, education, and liberal arts, as well as national security, military studies, intelligence, and homeland security.


The company also provides nursing-and health sciences-focused postsecondary education, diploma in practical nursing, an associate degree in nursing, and an associate degree in medical laboratory technology.American Public Education, Inc.was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Charles Town, West Virginia.

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1.b. Last Insights on APEI

American Public Education's recent performance was driven by robust enrollment trends, particularly at APUS, which contributed to increased revenue and net income exceeding guidance. The company's operating leverage in the Rasmussen segment also played a significant role in its Q1 2025 financial results. Additionally, the company's strong earnings surprise history and positive earnings outlook suggest a continued upward trend. Furthermore, APUS's recent Great Place to Work certification highlights a positive work culture, which can lead to increased employee satisfaction and productivity.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. American Public Education's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

American Public Education reported a robust financial performance in Q3 2025, with total revenue increasing by 7% to $163.2 million, driven by an 8% year-over-year growth in APUS net course registrations and a 10% increase in Rasmussen's enrollment. The company's net income available to common shareholders surged to $5.6 million, a nearly 7-fold increase from the prior year period, while EPS rose significantly to $0.30 per diluted share, beating estimates of -$0.09. Adjusted EBITDA also expanded by 60% to $20.7 million, driven by increased revenue and margin expansion of 424 basis points.

Publication Date: Nov -19

📋 Highlights
  • Outperformed Financial Guidance:: Exceeded revenue ($163.2M, +7% YoY), net income ($5.6M, +700% YoY), EPS ($0.30, +650% YoY), and adjusted EBITDA ($20.7M, +60% YoY) targets due to enrollment growth and margin expansion.
  • Enrollment Momentum:: APUS registrations rose 8% YoY in Q3 2025, while Rasmussen saw 10% enrollment growth in Q3 and 9% in Q4, marking six consecutive quarters of year-over-year increases.
  • Balance Sheet Strength:: Unrestricted cash and equivalents reached $193.1M as of 9/30/2025 after removing restrictions on a $24.5M letter of credit post-Rasmussen acquisition.
  • Strategic Restructuring:: Sold Graduate School USA (GSUSA) in July 2025 for $24.5M, removing a non-strategic asset and reallocating focus toward degree-granting institutions.
  • 2025 Guidance Revised:: Full-year revenue updated to $640M–$644M (from $650M–$660M) due to government shutdown impacts, with adjusted EBITDA expected at $75M–$79M.

Segment Performance

Rasmussen continued to produce strong results, with enrollment increasing by 10% in Q3 2025, representing the fifth consecutive quarter of year-over-year enrollment growth. APUS also reported an 8% year-over-year increase in net course registrations, contributing to the overall revenue growth. The company's nursing and healthcare institutions remain a key driver of growth, with Rasmussen's BSN and ADN programs showing significant momentum.

Guidance and Outlook

The company updated its full-year 2025 guidance, revising its consolidated revenue range to $640 million to $644 million, net income available to common shareholders to $17.2 million to $19.6 million, and adjusted EBITDA to $75 million to $79 million. For Q4 2025, APUS total net course registrations are expected to decline by around 16% to 20% due to the government shutdown, resulting in a revenue reduction of approximately $20 million to $24 million. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 6.6%.

Valuation and Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of 21.07, P/B Ratio of 2.21, and EV/EBITDA of 10.07, the company's valuation metrics suggest a relatively high multiple on earnings, but a reasonable price-to-book ratio. The ROE of 9.73% and ROIC of 6.59% indicate a decent return on equity and invested capital, respectively. As Angela Selden mentioned, "We are pleased with the three largest branches of the military using the One Big Beautiful Bill, allowing service members to register without CR approval, resulting in more registrations in December than in October and November," highlighting the company's continued momentum.

3. NewsRoom

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American Century Companies Inc. Buys 46,813 Shares of American Public Education, Inc. $APEI

Dec -03

Source: defenseworld.net

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APUS Honors Veterans Through Wreaths Across America Partnership

Dec -02

Source: prnewswire.com

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Rasmussen University Launches Radiologic Technology Program at its Central Pasco Campus

Nov -25

Source: prnewswire.com

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APUS Offers New Courses with MIT Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Lab (CSAIL)-Powered Content on AI

Nov -24

Source: prnewswire.com

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American Public Education, Inc. (APEI) Analyst/Investor Day Transcript

Nov -21

Source: seekingalpha.com

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American Public Education Provides 2025 Investor Day Presentation Materials

Nov -20

Source: prnewswire.com

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Rasmussen University Announces New Corporate Alliance with Hilton Grand Vacations

Nov -17

Source: prnewswire.com

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Bailard Inc. Cuts Holdings in American Public Education, Inc. $APEI

Nov -16

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (3.18%)

6. Segments

American Public University System

Expected Growth: 3.5%

American Public University System's 3.5% growth is driven by increasing demand for online education, strategic partnerships with the military and government agencies, and expansion of degree programs in high-growth fields such as healthcare and technology. Additionally, the university's affordable tuition rates and strong student retention rates contribute to its steady growth.

Rasmussen University

Expected Growth: 2.8%

Rasmussen University's 2.8% growth is driven by increasing demand for online education, strategic partnerships with healthcare providers, and expansion of nursing and healthcare programs. Additionally, the university's focus on employer-driven curriculum and flexible learning options appeals to working professionals seeking career advancement.

Hondros College of Nursing

Expected Growth: 3.2%

Hondros College of Nursing's 3.2% growth is driven by increasing demand for nursing professionals, strategic partnerships with healthcare providers, and expansion of online programs. Additionally, American Public Education, Inc.'s strong brand reputation and effective marketing strategies contribute to the college's growth.

Corporate and Other

Expected Growth: 2.5%

American Public Education, Inc.'s Corporate and Other segment growth of 2.5% is driven by increasing demand for online education, strategic partnerships, and cost savings initiatives. Additionally, the company's focus on diversifying its revenue streams and investing in digital infrastructure has contributed to this growth.

7. Detailed Products

APEI eLibrary

A digital library that provides access to a vast collection of e-books, articles, and other educational resources

APEI Curriculum

A comprehensive curriculum design and development service that provides customized educational content

APEI Faculty Support

A faculty support service that provides training, resources, and mentorship to educators

APEI Student Services

A range of student support services, including academic advising, career counseling, and tutoring

APEI Institutional Solutions

A suite of solutions designed to help educational institutions improve operational efficiency, reduce costs, and enhance student outcomes

8. American Public Education, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes is moderate in the American public education system, as there are alternative educational options available, such as private schools and online educational platforms.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is high in the American public education system, as parents and students have the ability to choose between different schools and educational programs.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is low in the American public education system, as there are many suppliers of educational resources and services, making it a competitive market.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low in the American public education system, as there are significant barriers to entry, such as regulatory hurdles and high startup costs.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is moderate in the American public education system, as there is competition among schools and educational institutions for students and resources.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 41.22%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 58.78%
Equity Cost 10.32%
WACC 7.69%
Leverage 70.12%

11. Quality Control: American Public Education, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
American Public Education

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 4.9

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 3.3

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Universal Technical Institute

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 3.3

Growth: 6.3

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 4.0

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Lincoln Educational Services

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 4.1

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Coursera

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 3.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Udemy

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Chegg

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 9.6

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

34.51$

Current Price

34.51$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows