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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Ashford Hospitality Trust is a real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on investing predominantly in upper upscale, full-service hotels.

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1.b. Last Insights on AHT

Ashford Hospitality Trust's recent performance was negatively impacted by a significant quarterly loss of $2.85 per share, exceeding the estimated loss of $1.14. This widened loss compared to $1.71 per share a year ago. The company's Q3 2025 earnings call highlighted challenges, but specific details on the underperformance were not provided. The hospitality industry's uncertain landscape, with fluctuating demand and economic pressures, likely affected the company's results. Additionally, the company's strategic portfolio sales, such as the Hilton Houston NASA Clear Lake and Residence Inn Evansville East, may have impacted its short-term financials.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Ashford Hospitality Trust's Q2 2025 Earnings: A Mixed Bag

Ashford Hospitality Trust (AHT) reported a net loss of $39.9 million or $6.88 per diluted share for the second quarter of 2025, with actual EPS coming in at a significant miss relative to estimates at $0.78 versus $1.83. Despite a 2.2% year-over-year decline in comparable hotel RevPAR due to reduced group and government travel, comparable total revenue increased 1.3% and comparable hotel EBITDA grew 2.6%. The Grow AHT initiative was a key driver of this performance, focusing on high-margin revenue strategies and cost reductions.

Publication Date: Sep -04

📋 Highlights
  • Net Loss and EBITDA Growth:: AHT reported a net loss of $39.9M ($6.88/share), but comparable hotel EBITDA grew 2.6%.
  • RevPAR Decline vs. Revenue Increase:: RevPAR fell 2.2% YoY, yet total revenue rose 1.3% due to high-margin strategies.
  • Liquidity and Debt Management:: $100M in cash, $153.9M in restricted cash, and extended mortgages for flexibility.
  • Strategic Dispositions:: Pursuing asset sales to reduce leverage and improve cash flow.
  • FIFA World Cup Positioning:: 42% of portfolio in 2026 FIFA host cities, with group demand expected to remain strong.

Financial Flexibility and Strategic Dispositions

AHT ended the quarter with $100 million in cash and $153.9 million in restricted cash, and extended their MS17 and Highland mortgage loans, providing additional financial flexibility. The company is currently pursuing strategic dispositions to reduce leverage and improve cash flow, a move that is expected to have a positive impact on its financials going forward.

Growth Prospects and Capital Expenditures

Looking forward, AHT expects group demand to remain healthy and is well-positioned to benefit from the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with 42% of its portfolio rooms located in host cities. For the full year 2025, AHT expects to spend $90-$110 million on capital expenditures, which will be directed towards initiatives such as renovations, brand conversions, and improved food and beverage offerings, driving strong performance at several properties.

Valuation Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of -0.15 and an EV/EBITDA of 12.64, the market is pricing in significant challenges for AHT. However, the company's Free Cash Flow Yield of 86.57% and ROIC of 104.89% suggest that it has the potential to generate strong cash flows. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at -0.5%, indicating a challenging operating environment.

3. NewsRoom

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A Fed Divided

Nov -23

Source: seekingalpha.com

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ASHFORD HOSPITALITY TRUST ANNOUNCES AGREEMENTS TO SELL THREE ASSETS

Nov -20

Source: prnewswire.com

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Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc. (AHT) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Prepared Remarks Transcript

Nov -05

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Ashford Hospitality Trust (AHT) Reports Q3 Loss, Lags Revenue Estimates

Nov -05

Source: zacks.com

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ASHFORD TRUST DECLARES PREFERRED DIVIDENDS FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 2025

Oct -14

Source: prnewswire.com

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A Dovish Turn, A Hawkish Shadow

Sep -21

Source: seekingalpha.com

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ASHFORD TRUST SETS THIRD QUARTER EARNINGS RELEASE AND CONFERENCE CALL DATES

Sep -17

Source: prnewswire.com

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ASHFORD HOSPITALITY TRUST ANNOUNCES REFINANCING OF MORTGAGE LOAN SECURED BY THE RENAISSANCE NASHVILLE HOTEL

Sep -15

Source: prnewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.80%)

6. Segments

Rooms

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Ashford Hospitality Trust's 4.83% growth in rooms is driven by increasing demand from business and leisure travelers, strategic acquisitions, and effective asset management. Additionally, the company's focus on renovating and repositioning its properties has improved RevPAR, contributing to the growth. Furthermore, the expansion of its presence in high-growth markets and the implementation of revenue-enhancing initiatives have also supported the growth.

Food and Beverage

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Ashford Hospitality Trust's Food and Beverage segment growth of 4.65% is driven by increasing RevPAR, strategic hotel acquisitions, and effective cost management. Additionally, the company's focus on upscale and luxury hotels, which typically have higher F&B revenue, contributes to the growth. Furthermore, the company's efforts to enhance the guest experience through renovated restaurants and bars also support the segment's growth.

Other Hotel

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Ashford Hospitality Trust's Other Hotel segment growth of 4.83% is driven by increasing demand for luxury accommodations, strategic property renovations, and effective revenue management. Additionally, the company's focus on high-growth markets, such as urban areas and tourist destinations, contributes to the segment's growth.

Other

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Ashford Hospitality Trust's 4.83% growth is driven by increasing RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) due to strong demand in the hospitality industry, strategic acquisitions, and effective cost management. Additionally, the company's diversified portfolio of hotels across the US and its focus on high-growth markets contribute to its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Hotel Rooms

Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc. owns and operates a diverse portfolio of hotels across the United States, offering a range of accommodations and amenities to guests.

Food and Beverage Services

The company's hotels offer a variety of on-site dining options, including restaurants, bars, and room service, providing guests with convenient and delicious meal options.

Meeting and Event Spaces

Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc.'s hotels feature meeting and event spaces, catering to corporate events, weddings, and other gatherings, offering amenities such as audio-visual equipment and catering services.

Amenities and Services

The company's hotels offer a range of amenities, including fitness centers, pools, and business centers, to enhance the guest experience.

8. Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc. operates in the hospitality industry, which is characterized by a moderate level of substitutes. While there are alternative accommodations available, such as Airbnb and vacation rentals, hotels and resorts remain a popular choice for travelers. The company's focus on providing unique experiences and amenities helps to differentiate it from substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc. has a diverse customer base, including individual travelers, groups, and corporate clients. While customers have some bargaining power due to the availability of online booking platforms, the company's strong brand reputation and loyalty programs help to mitigate this power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc. relies on various suppliers, including food and beverage providers, linen suppliers, and maintenance contractors. While suppliers have some bargaining power due to the company's dependence on their services, Ashford's scale and negotiating power help to balance this power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The hospitality industry has significant barriers to entry, including high capital requirements, regulatory hurdles, and the need for specialized expertise. While new entrants may emerge, Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc.'s established brand, scale, and operational expertise provide a competitive advantage.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The hospitality industry is highly competitive, with numerous players vying for market share. Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc. faces intense competition from other hotel and resort operators, as well as alternative accommodation providers. The company's focus on delivering exceptional customer experiences and investing in its properties helps to differentiate it from competitors.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 108.32%
Debt Cost 10.53%
Equity Weight -8.32%
Equity Cost 14.96%
WACC 10.16%
Leverage -1301.39%

11. Quality Control: Ashford Hospitality Trust, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Chatham Lodging

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Value: 6.2

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 8.0

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Braemar Hotels & Resorts

A-Score: 5.1/10

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Quality: 3.7

Yield: 9.0

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Volatility: 2.7

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Ashford Hospitality Trust

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 9.0

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 3.3

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Growth: 4.4

Quality: 3.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 5.0

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Sotherly Hotels

A-Score: 2.6/10

Value: 7.2

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 0.3

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InnSuites Hospitality

A-Score: 2.4/10

Value: 5.6

Growth: 2.4

Quality: 1.5

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

3.22$

Current Price

3.22$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows