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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Axsome Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development of novel therapies for central nervous system (CNS) disorders in the United States.The company's product pipeline includes AXS-05, a therapeutic for the treatment of major depressive disorder and resistant depression disorders; and that is in the Phase III clinical trial to treat Alzheimer's disease agitation, as well as that has completed phase II clinical trial for the treatment of smoking cessation.It is also developing AXS-07, a novel, oral, rapidly absorbed, multi-mechanistic, and investigational medicine that has completed two Phase III trials for the acute treatment of migraine; AXS-12, a selective and potent norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor, which is in Phase III trial to treat narcolepsy; and AXS-14, a novel, oral, and investigational medicine that is in Phase III trial for the treatment of fibromyalgia.


Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.has a research collaboration agreement with Duke University for evaluating AXS-05 in smoking cessation.The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in New York, New York.

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1.b. Last Insights on AXSM

Axsome Therapeutics' recent performance is driven by robust sales growth, primarily fueled by Auvelity, which soared 63% year-over-year, and a growing CNS drug pipeline. The company's Q3 2025 earnings call highlighted a widening loss, but revenue growth and a solid regulatory progress are encouraging. Axsome's acquisition of AZD7325, a novel oral selective GABA A α2,3 receptor positive allosteric modulator, and Baergic Bio, expand its pipeline. Envestnet Asset Management Inc. also increased its stake in Axsome by 12.4% (Envestnet Asset Management Inc., 2025).

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Axsome Therapeutics' Q3 Earnings: Strong Revenue Growth Amidst Increasing Expenses

Axsome Therapeutics reported a robust third quarter with total revenue of $171 million across its three marketed products, representing a 63% increase year-over-year. The revenue growth was driven primarily by AUVELITY, a treatment for major depressive disorder, which generated $136.1 million in net product sales, up 69% versus last year. SUNOSI, for sleep disorders, had net product revenues of $32.8 million, up 35% versus the prior year. SYMBRAVO, a migraine treatment, completed its first full quarter on the market with $2.1 million in net sales. The company's net loss for the quarter was $47.2 million or $0.94 per share, wider than the estimated loss of $0.82 per share. Research and development expenses decreased 11% to $40.2 million, while selling, general, and administrative expenses increased 57% to $150.2 million.

Publication Date: Nov -16

📋 Highlights
  • Total Revenue Surge:: Q3 revenue reached $171 million (+63% YoY), driven by AUVELITY ($136.1M, +69%), SUNOSI ($32.8M, +35%), and SYMBRAVO ($2.1M).
  • Financial Efficiency & Liquidity:: R&D expenses dropped 11% to $40.2M, but SG&A rose 57% to $150.2M. Net loss was $47.2M ($0.94/share), with $325.3M in cash reserves.
  • Pipeline Progress:: AXS-05 (Alzheimer’s agitation) and AXS-12 (narcolepsy) NDAs in progress; SUNOSI’s Phase III trials for binge eating and shift work disorder underway.
  • Commercial Expansion:: 46,000 prescribers, including 5,000 new, reflecting growth in REXULTI and SUNOSI. AUVELITY’s GTN improved to high 40s from mid-50s.
  • Market Access & Cash Runway:: 75% commercial coverage, targeting mid-90% with new GPO contracts. Current cash balance supports operations to cash flow positivity.

Commercial Performance

AUVELITY's growth is driven by strong prescription growth, increased new writer activation, and strategic commercial investments. The company has made progress with market access, with commercial coverage increasing from 73% to 75%. The gross-to-net discount improved from the mid-50s to the high 40s in Q3, driven by improved access and covered lives. Axsome expects to continue adding covered lives and improve net price. SUNOSI's growth is driven primarily by demand from the OSA segment, with significant unmet need in excessive sleepiness.

Pipeline Advancements

The company is advancing its pipeline, including a supplemental NDA for AXS-05 in Alzheimer's disease agitation and an NDA for AXS-12 for narcolepsy. Axsome expects meaningful activity across its late-stage programs in the coming months. For AXS-05, the FDA typically notifies sponsors of potential acceptance within 74 days of submission. The company plans to leverage its existing sales force and invest in long-term care promotion if AXS-05 is approved.

Valuation and Growth Expectations

Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 55.6%. The current P/S Ratio of 12.55 suggests that the market has high expectations for the company's future growth. The EV/EBITDA ratio of -32.07 indicates that the company's enterprise value is not justified by its current earnings. Axsome's current cash balance is sufficient to fund operations into cash flow positivity.

Future Plans

The company plans to expand its sales force if AXS-05 is approved for Alzheimer's disease agitation, with a goal to add representatives to support the launch. Axsome is optimistic about the improvement in gross-to-net and formulary access. The company has four Phase III trials planned to initiate this quarter, which will occur on a natural cadence.

3. NewsRoom

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Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) Presents at Piper Sandler 37th Annual Healthcare Conference Transcript

Dec -04

Source: seekingalpha.com

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2 Under-the-Radar Stocks to Buy Heading Into 2026

Dec -02

Source: fool.com

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Axsome Therapeutics to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conferences

Nov -20

Source: globenewswire.com

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Envestnet Asset Management Inc. Grows Stake in Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. $AXSM

Nov -16

Source: defenseworld.net

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2 Monster Stocks in the Making

Nov -10

Source: fool.com

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Axsome Therapeutics Acquires Subtype Selective GABA-A Receptor Positive Allosteric Modulator AZD7325 for the Treatment of Epilepsy

Nov -06

Source: globenewswire.com

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Avenue Therapeutics Announces Acquisition of Subsidiary Baergic Bio by Axsome Therapeutics

Nov -06

Source: globenewswire.com

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Axsome: Alzheimer's Disease Agitation sNDA Adds Optionality, Not A Thesis Changer

Nov -05

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.30%)

6. Segments

Novel Therapies

Expected Growth: 10.3%

Growing prevalence of CNS disorders, increasing demand for innovative treatments, and Axsome's novel therapies pipeline are expected to drive growth in the CNS disorder treatment market.

7. Detailed Products

AXS-05

A novel, oral, investigational medicine for the treatment of major depressive disorder (MDD) and other central nervous system (CNS) disorders.

AXS-07

A novel, oral, investigational medicine for the acute treatment of migraine.

AXS-12

A novel, oral, investigational medicine for the treatment of narcolepsy.

8. Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. operates in the pharmaceutical industry, where substitutes are available, but they are not easily interchangeable. The company's products are specialized, and patients may not easily switch to alternative treatments.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. primarily sells its products to wholesalers, distributors, and pharmacies, which then sell them to patients. The company has a diverse customer base, and no single customer has significant bargaining power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. relies on a limited number of suppliers for raw materials and services. While the company has some bargaining power due to its size, suppliers may still have some leverage, particularly if they provide specialized or critical components.

Threat Of New Entrants

The pharmaceutical industry has high barriers to entry, including significant research and development costs, regulatory hurdles, and the need for specialized expertise. New entrants may find it challenging to enter the market and compete with established players like Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The pharmaceutical industry is highly competitive, with many established players and new entrants vying for market share. Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. operates in a niche market, but still faces competition from other companies developing similar products.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 48.43%
Debt Cost 4.24%
Equity Weight 51.57%
Equity Cost 10.30%
WACC 7.36%
Leverage 93.91%

11. Quality Control: Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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ACADIA Pharmaceuticals

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 3.0

Growth: 9.0

Quality: 9.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 3.3

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TG Therapeutics

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Quality: 7.7

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Axsome Therapeutics

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 5.0

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Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals

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Value: 6.2

Growth: 1.1

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

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Intellia Therapeutics

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 2.8

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 1.0

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Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical

A-Score: 3.0/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 3.7

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

149.22$

Current Price

149.22$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows