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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.provides artificial intelligence and machine learning for decision support.The company operates through two segments, Cyber & Engineering and Analytics.


The Cyber & Engineering segment offers high-end technology and management consulting services.It focuses in the areas of cloud engineering and enterprise IT, cybersecurity, computer network operations and wireless, systems engineering, and strategy and program planning.The Analytics segment provides high-end technology and consulting services.


This segment focuses on the areas of big data computing and analytical solutions, including predictive and prescriptive analytics solutions.Its solutions assist customers in aggregating, interpreting, and synthesizing data to enable real-time decision-making capabilities.The company is headquartered in Columbia, Maryland.

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1.b. Last Insights on BBAI

The recent 3-month performance of BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. was driven by the company's strategic initiatives in aviation security, including a significant collaboration with Analogic, a global innovator in aviation security systems. This partnership has fueled investor interest in the company's AI defense solutions, contributing to its stock's upward momentum. Additionally, BigBear.ai's recent contracts have set the stage for massive growth in AI defense, with potential for significant returns from international expansion in the Middle East. The company's ability to secure government contracts will be crucial in turning these opportunities into real profits.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. BigBear.ai's Q2 2025 Earnings: A Strong Financial Position Amidst Contract Disruptions

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. reported a revenue of $32.5 million for the second quarter of 2025, representing a decrease of $7.3 million year-over-year, primarily due to disruptions in Army programs. The company's earnings per share (EPS) came out at -$0.06, beating estimates of -$0.07. The company's cash position stood at a record high of $391 million, resulting in a net positive cash position of almost $250 million, a first in BigBear's history.

Publication Date: Sep -02

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Decline:: Q2 2025 revenue fell to $32.5M, down $7.3M YoY, due to Army program disruptions.
  • Record Cash Reserves:: Ended quarter with $391M in cash and a net positive cash position of $250M.
  • OB3 Funding Alignment:: $320B in "One Big Beautiful Bill" funding (DHS $170B, DoD $150B) targets BigBear.ai’s core competencies.
  • Biometric Adoption:: veriScan deployed at 12 North American airports/seaports, setting a market standard for passenger processing.
  • Revenue Guidance:: 2025 revenue projected at $125–140M, reflecting strategic investments in AI, autonomy, and international expansion.

Financial Performance

The revenue decline was largely attributed to the disruptions in Army contracts. However, the company's strong financial position, with a record cash balance, allows it to aggressively pursue growth opportunities presented by the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OB3). BigBear.ai has withdrawn its adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2025 and now projects revenue between $125 million and $140 million.

Growth Opportunities

The OB3 provides funding for areas where BigBear.ai has core capabilities, including border security, AI, autonomy, and shipbuilding. The company's biometric solution, veriScan, is becoming a market standard for enhanced passenger processing, with recent deployments at 12 airports and seaports in North America. Additionally, BigBear.ai's autonomous command and control software, ConductorOS, successfully supported operations at the recent Talisman Sabre exercise.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/S Ratio of 11.96 and an EV/EBITDA of -8.44, the market is pricing in significant growth expectations. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 13.8%. BigBear.ai's strong financial position, coupled with its focus on core capabilities and frontier innovations, positions the company for potential long-term growth. The company's plan to invest heavily in organic growth, marketing, and talent acquisition is expected to drive future growth.

Strategic Initiatives

BigBear.ai is strengthening partnerships domestically and internationally for seamless ecosystem integration and global distribution. The company is also pursuing strategic acquisitions to accelerate scale, enter new markets, and enhance AI capabilities. As stated by the company, "We're focusing on core capabilities, frontier innovations like physical AI and IoT integration, and real-world AI systems for security and efficiency."

3. NewsRoom

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BBAI stock gains 12% on Thursday: is the Ask Sage acquisition finally paying off?

Dec -04

Source: invezz.com

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Where Will BigBear.ai Be in 5 Years?

Dec -04

Source: fool.com

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Tackling a Good Cause - BigBear.ai Supports Washington Commanders “My Cause, My Cleats” Initiative

Dec -04

Source: businesswire.com

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10 AI Stocks Worth Buying Right Now

Dec -04

Source: fool.com

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BigBear.ai Stock Rises 36% in 6 Months: Is It Still a Buy?

Dec -03

Source: zacks.com

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3 Top Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks Ready for a Bull Run

Dec -03

Source: fool.com

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Johnson Fistel, PLLP Investigates Claims on Behalf of Long‑Term Shareholders of Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT), Quanex Building Products Corporation (NX), Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. (TMCI), and BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI)

Dec -01

Source: globenewswire.com

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Cetera Investment Advisers Buys 200,669 Shares of BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. $BBAI

Dec -01

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (15.00%)

6. Segments

Software and Services

Expected Growth: 15%

BigBear.ai Holdings' 15% growth in Software and Services is driven by increasing adoption of AI-powered analytics, growing demand for cloud-based solutions, and expansion into new markets. Additionally, the company's strategic partnerships, innovative product offerings, and strong sales execution are contributing to its rapid growth.

7. Detailed Products

BearTracks

BearTracks is a cloud-based data analytics platform that provides real-time insights and visibility into supply chain operations, enabling companies to optimize their logistics and inventory management.

BearStudio

BearStudio is a low-code AI development platform that enables users to build, deploy, and manage AI models without extensive coding knowledge, accelerating AI adoption across industries.

BearEdge

BearEdge is an edge AI platform that enables real-time AI processing at the edge, reducing latency and improving performance in IoT, robotics, and autonomous systems.

BearGraph

BearGraph is a graph AI platform that enables users to build, deploy, and manage graph-based AI models, unlocking insights from complex relationships and networks.

8. BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. operates in a niche market with limited substitutes, but the threat of substitutes is still present due to the evolving nature of AI technology.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's AI solutions are often customized, making it difficult for customers to switch to alternative providers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. relies on a few key suppliers for its AI technology and infrastructure. While the company has some bargaining power, suppliers may still exert some influence over prices and delivery terms.

Threat Of New Entrants

The AI market is rapidly evolving, and new entrants with innovative solutions can easily disrupt the market. BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. must continuously innovate to stay ahead of potential new entrants.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The AI market is highly competitive, with many established players and new entrants vying for market share. BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. must differentiate its solutions and maintain a strong market presence to remain competitive.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 152.22%
Debt Cost 7.07%
Equity Weight -52.22%
Equity Cost 20.95%
WACC -0.18%
Leverage -291.50%

11. Quality Control: BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Innodata

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 0.0

Growth: 9.3

Quality: 8.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
NCR Voyix

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 8.1

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
BigBear.ai

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 1.7

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Thoughtworks

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
FiscalNote Holdings

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 9.6

Growth: 6.8

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Digimarc

A-Score: 2.8/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

6.82$

Current Price

6.82$

Potential

0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows