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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.provides artificial intelligence and machine learning for decision support.The company operates through two segments, Cyber & Engineering and Analytics.


The Cyber & Engineering segment offers high-end technology and management consulting services.It focuses in the areas of cloud engineering and enterprise IT, cybersecurity, computer network operations and wireless, systems engineering, and strategy and program planning.The Analytics segment provides high-end technology and consulting services.


This segment focuses on the areas of big data computing and analytical solutions, including predictive and prescriptive analytics solutions.Its solutions assist customers in aggregating, interpreting, and synthesizing data to enable real-time decision-making capabilities.The company is headquartered in Columbia, Maryland.

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1.b. Last Insights on BBAI

The recent 3-month performance of BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. was driven by the company's strategic initiatives in aviation security, including a significant collaboration with Analogic, a global innovator in aviation security systems. This partnership has fueled investor interest in the company's AI defense solutions, contributing to its stock's upward momentum. Additionally, BigBear.ai's recent contracts have set the stage for massive growth in AI defense, with potential for significant returns from international expansion in the Middle East. The company's ability to secure government contracts will be crucial in turning these opportunities into real profits.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. BigBear.ai Holdings' Q4 2025 Earnings: A Year of Strategic Positioning

BigBear.ai Holdings reported revenue of $27.3 million for the fourth quarter of 2025, a decline from $43.8 million in the same period the previous year, primarily due to lower volume on Army programs. Gross margins also decreased to 20.4% from 37.4% due to one-time items. The company's net loss for the quarter was $5.8 million, an improvement from a net loss of $138.2 million in the comparable period, largely due to a noncash gain on derivatives and an income tax benefit. The actual EPS was $-0.00162, beating estimates of $-0.05. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $10.3 million, down from positive $2 million year-over-year.

Publication Date: Mar -05

📋 Highlights
  • Debt Reduction & Liquidity: Achieved record liquidity with $693M in ATM/warrant proceeds and $9M annualized interest savings from 2029 note settlement.
  • International Expansion: Launched $1.4T investment framework in UAE, established Abu Dhabi office, and partnered with Abu Dhabi Ports Group for AI customs systems.
  • Strategic Acquisitions: Completed AsSage ($1.4T framework-linked) and Carglosere acquisitions to enhance secure AI distribution and shipment inspection capabilities.
  • Q4 Financials: Revenue fell to $27.3M (-40% YoY), net loss narrowed to $5.8M (from $138.2M), aided by $132.4M noncash derivative gain and tax benefit.
  • 2026 Guidance: Projects $135–165M revenue (+17% YoY), but withheld EBITDA guidance due to AI market volatility and post-acquisition integration costs.

Strategic Acquisitions and Expansion

The company made significant strides in 2025, completing the acquisition of AsSage, a model-agnostic platform for secure distribution of generative AI models, and Carglosere, an AI shipment inspection platform. These acquisitions are expected to drive growth and expand BigBear.ai's offerings in the national security and travel and trade sectors. As CFO Sean Ricker noted, the company is prioritizing four key areas: deliver top-line growth, focus on the operator, operate with execution rigor, and capitalize on catalytic M&A.

Financial Strength and Future Projections

BigBear.ai raised $693 million in proceeds from its ATM facilities and warrant exercises, closed on the acquisition of Essage, and settled the 2029 notes, saving $9 million of annualized interest expense. The company's balance sheet has been strengthened, positioning it for sustainable growth. For 2026, BigBear.ai is projecting revenue of $135-165 million, representing about 17% growth from its 2025 revenue. Analysts estimate revenue growth at 11.7% for the next year.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/S Ratio of 10.76 and an EV/EBITDA of -5.78, the market is pricing in significant growth expectations for BigBear.ai. The company's ROE is -69.72%, and ROIC is -11.48%, indicating that it still has challenges to overcome in terms of profitability. However, with its strengthened financial position and strategic acquisitions, BigBear.ai is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for AI solutions in critical infrastructure.

3. NewsRoom

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Is BigBear.ai Positioned for U.S. Defense AI Spending Surge?

Apr -16

Source: zacks.com

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BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. Investigated by the Portnoy Law Firm

Apr -16

Source: globenewswire.com

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AI Eyes Move Onto The Counter-Drone Battlefield As Defense Tech Companies Race To Fuse Video With RF

Apr -13

Source: prnewswire.com

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BigBear.ai's Model-Agnostic AI Platform: A Competitive Edge?

Apr -10

Source: zacks.com

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Best AI Stocks to Buy: BigBear.ai Stock vs. Soundhoundai Stock

Apr -09

Source: fool.com

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BigBear.ai Stock Lags Industry: Does Valuation Offer Support?

Apr -09

Source: zacks.com

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Why BigBear.ai Is a Buy Now Even as Revenue Tumbles and Margins Compress

Apr -09

Source: 247wallst.com

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Why BigBear.ai Stock Sank 11.1% Last Month and Has Kept Falling in April

Apr -08

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (15.00%)

6. Segments

Software and Services

Expected Growth: 15%

BigBear.ai Holdings' 15% growth in Software and Services is driven by increasing adoption of AI-powered analytics, growing demand for cloud-based solutions, and expansion into new markets. Additionally, the company's strategic partnerships, innovative product offerings, and strong sales execution are contributing to its rapid growth.

7. Detailed Products

BearTracks

BearTracks is a cloud-based data analytics platform that provides real-time insights and visibility into supply chain operations, enabling companies to optimize their logistics and inventory management.

BearStudio

BearStudio is a low-code AI development platform that enables users to build, deploy, and manage AI models without extensive coding knowledge, accelerating AI adoption across industries.

BearEdge

BearEdge is an edge AI platform that enables real-time AI processing at the edge, reducing latency and improving performance in IoT, robotics, and autonomous systems.

BearGraph

BearGraph is a graph AI platform that enables users to build, deploy, and manage graph-based AI models, unlocking insights from complex relationships and networks.

8. BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. operates in a niche market with limited substitutes, but the threat of substitutes is still present due to the evolving nature of AI technology.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's AI solutions are often customized, making it difficult for customers to switch to alternative providers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. relies on a few key suppliers for its AI technology and infrastructure. While the company has some bargaining power, suppliers may still exert some influence over prices and delivery terms.

Threat Of New Entrants

The AI market is rapidly evolving, and new entrants with innovative solutions can easily disrupt the market. BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. must continuously innovate to stay ahead of potential new entrants.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The AI market is highly competitive, with many established players and new entrants vying for market share. BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. must differentiate its solutions and maintain a strong market presence to remain competitive.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 152.22%
Debt Cost 7.07%
Equity Weight -52.22%
Equity Cost 20.95%
WACC -0.18%
Leverage -291.50%

11. Quality Control: BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Innodata

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 0.8

Growth: 9.3

Quality: 7.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
NCR Voyix

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 7.9

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Thoughtworks

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
FiscalNote Holdings

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 6.7

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
BigBear.ai

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 1.7

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Digimarc

A-Score: 2.9/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

3.75$

Current Price

3.75$

Potential

0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows