BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. (BTAI) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc.is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company utilizing artificial intelligence approaches to develop transformative medicines in neuroscience and immuno-oncology.The company's drug re-innovation approach leverages existing approved drugs and/or clinically validated product candidates together with big data and proprietary machine learning algorithms to identify new therapeutic indices.

Its commercial product, IGALMI (developed as BXCL501) is a proprietary, sublingual film formulation of dexmedetomidine for the acute treatment of agitation associated with schizophrenia or bipolar I or II disorder in adults.The company also continues to conduct clinical trials evaluating BXCL501 for the treatment of agitation in Alzheimer's disease patients, and for adjunctive treatment of patients with major depressive disorder, as well as in the community for agitation associated with bipolar disorders and schizophrenia.In addition, it is developing BXCL502 as a potential therapy for chronic agitation in dementia; and BXCL701, an investigational, orally administered, systemic innate immunity activator for the treatment of aggressive forms of prostate cancer and advanced solid tumors that are refractory or treatment naïve to checkpoint inhibitors.

The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in New Haven, Connecticut.

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1.b. Last Insights on BTAI

Negative drivers behind BioXcel Therapeutics' recent performance include the company's Q1 loss, which beat revenue estimates but still resulted in a net loss of $1.50 per share. The company's revenue of $0.17 million fell short of the consensus estimate of $0.35 million. Additionally, the company's stock price has been impacted by a lack of institutional investor interest, with institutional investors owning only 30.68% of the company's stock. Furthermore, the company's recent earnings release did not provide any significant updates on its pipeline or business prospects, which may have contributed to the negative sentiment surrounding the stock.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	2.07
Change Percentage	-0.96%
Open	2.12
Previous Close	2.09
Market Cap ( Millions)	45
Volume	265888
Year High	9.26
Year Low	1.17
M A 50	2.19
M A 200	2.35

FCF Yield	-123.18%
Dividend Yield	0.00%
ROE	54.12%
Debt / Equity	-100.95%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	-232.54%
Price To Book	-0.15
Price Earnings Ratio	-0.32
Price To FCF	-0.81
Price To sales	52.15
EV / EBITDA	-3.48

2. Transcript Summary

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3. NewsRoom

Award-Winning Journalist Anjalee Khemlani to Host Virtual Roundtable with Leading Medical Experts to Discuss Latest Developments in Treating Acute Agitation Related to Neuropsychiatric Conditions

Dec -03

Source: globenewswire.com

BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. (BTAI) Reports Q3 Loss, Misses Revenue Estimates

Nov -12

Source: zacks.com

BioXcel Therapeutics Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Provides Update on Late-Stage Clinical Programs for Agitation in Bipolar, Schizophrenia, and Alzheimer's Disease

Nov -12

Source: globenewswire.com

Halper Sadeh LLC Encourages BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. Shareholders to Contact the Firm to Discuss Their Rights

Oct -24

Source: businesswire.com

BioXcel Therapeutics Announces Positive Results from Correlation Study Supporting SERENITY At-Home Exploratory Efficacy Outcomes

Oct -14

Source: globenewswire.com

BioXcel Therapeutics to Ring Nasdaq Closing Bell on October 14 to Celebrate a Transformative Milestone in Neuroscience Innovation

Oct -13

Source: globenewswire.com

BioXcel Therapeutics Regains Compliance with Nasdaq Market Value of Listed Securities Requirements

Sep -18

Source: globenewswire.com

BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. (BTAI) Discuses On SERENITY At-Home Pivotal Phase 3 Safety Trial Results Call (Transcript)

Sep -10

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (11.30%)

6. Segments

Neuroscience and Immuno-oncology Drugs

Expected Growth: 11.3%

BioXcel Therapeutics' 11.3% growth in Neuroscience and Immuno-oncology Drugs is driven by increasing demand for novel treatments, advancements in gene editing technologies, and a growing understanding of the brain's biology. Additionally, the company's focus on precision medicine and its pipeline of innovative drugs are contributing to its rapid expansion.

7. Detailed Products

BXCL501

A proprietary, orally dissolvable film formulation of dexmedetomidine, a selective alpha-2a receptor agonist, for the treatment of agitation associated with schizophrenia and bipolar disorders.

BXCL502

A proprietary, orally dissolvable film formulation of dexmedetomidine, a selective alpha-2a receptor agonist, for the treatment of opioid withdrawal symptoms.

BXCL701

A first-in-class, orally administered systemic innate immunity activator for the treatment of pancreatic cancer and other solid tumors.

8. BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. operates in a niche market with limited substitutes, but the threat of substitutes is still present due to the ongoing research and development in the biotechnology industry.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's products are specialized, making it difficult for customers to switch to alternative suppliers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. relies on a few key suppliers for raw materials and services. While the company has some bargaining power due to its size, the suppliers also have some leverage due to the specialized nature of the products.

Threat Of New Entrants

The biotechnology industry is highly competitive, and new entrants can easily disrupt the market. BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. needs to continuously innovate and differentiate itself to maintain its market position.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The biotechnology industry is highly competitive, and BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. faces intense rivalry from established players and new entrants. The company needs to focus on differentiating itself through innovation and strategic partnerships to maintain its market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	227.17%
Debt Cost	6.07%
Equity Weight	-127.17%
Equity Cost	6.07%
WACC	6.07%
Leverage	-178.64%

11. Quality Control: BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Verve Therapeutics

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

ABVC BioPharma

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Ikena Oncology

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 1.8

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Jaguar Health

A-Score: 3.2/10

Value: 9.6

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

BioXcel Therapeutics

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Gain Therapeutics

A-Score: 2.2/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 1.6

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

12.82%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

6.07%

BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. - US09075P1057

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on BTAI

1.c. Company Highlights

Lower Growth

Weak Momentum

Medium Volatility

Earnings Miss

Revenues Beats

More Volatile

Earnings Beats

Revenues Miss

Stable Momentum

Fairly Valued

Average Growth

2. Transcript Summary

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (11.30%)

6. Segments

Neuroscience and Immuno-oncology Drugs

Expected Growth: 11.3%

7. Detailed Products

BXCL501

BXCL502

BXCL701

8. BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

2.07$

Current Price

2.07$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA