Bumble Inc. (BMBL) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Bumble Inc.provides online dating and social networking platforms in North America, Europe, internationally.It owns and operates websites and applications that offers subscription and in-app purchases dating products.

The company operates two apps, Bumble and Badoo with approximately 40 million users on monthly basis, as well as Fruitz, an online dating app.Bumble Inc.was founded in 2014 in and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.

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1.b. Last Insights on BMBL

Bumble Inc.'s recent performance was negatively impacted by a consensus "Reduce" rating from 15 analysts, with three issuing a sell rating and ten a hold rating. The company's Q3 2025 earnings revealed declining revenue, although it achieved GAAP profitability and significant cash flow growth. Investigations into potential securities fraud and a focus on product improvements, particularly leveraging AI, are underway. With a clean balance sheet and efforts to address user pain points, the company is positioned for potential growth, but faces challenges. (Source: MarketBeat, Kirby McInerney LLP)

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	3.69
Change Percentage	-0.67%
Open	3.69
Previous Close	3.71
Market Cap ( Millions)	392
Volume	792395
Year High	8.82
Year Low	3.18
M A 50	4.89
M A 200	5.53

FCF Yield	44.33%
Dividend Yield	0.00%
ROE	-27.49%
Debt / Equity	87.25%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	-161.28%
Price To Book	0.58
Price Earnings Ratio	-1.96
Price To FCF	2.26
Price To sales	0.39
EV / EBITDA	-3.86

2. Bumble's Quality-First Strategy Yields Mixed Results

Bumble's third-quarter revenue was $246 million, a 10% decline from a year ago, while adjusted EBITDA was $83 million, up 1%, representing a margin of 34%, up from 30% in the year-ago period. The company's earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.35, slightly below estimates of $0.38. Despite the revenue decline, Bumble's focus on quality over quantity has led to improving retention and average revenue per paying user (ARPPU).

Publication Date: Nov -29

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Revenue Decline::
                                                Q3 revenue fell to $246 million (10% YoY decline), with Q4 guidance of $216–224 million (-14% to -17% YoY).
Adjusted EBITDA Growth::
                                                Q3 adjusted EBITDA rose to $83 million (+1 YoY) with a margin of 34%, up from 30% in Q3 2024.
ARPPU & Retention Trends::
                                                Short-term member registration drop offset by improving retention and rising average revenue per paying user (ARPPU).
TRA Liability Resolution::
                                                $186 million spent to eliminate TRA obligations, simplifying capital structure and enhancing cash flow flexibility.
AI-Driven Product Roadmap::
                                                AI-first cloud-native platform (launching mid-2026) aims to personalize experiences, boost safety, and accelerate feature development (hours vs. months).

                                

Operational Highlights

Bumble's Beehive Fit framework is driving progress against its quality-first goals, with a focus on verified, thoughtful, and focused members. The company has introduced several updates, including a major update to Bumble Date focused on trust and safety, with features such as richer profiles and stronger verification. As Whitney Wolfe Herd, CEO, noted, "our goal is to become the most trusted, highest-quality women-first platform in the world."

Financial Outlook

Bumble expects total revenue in the range of $216 million to $224 million in the fourth quarter, representing a year-over-year decline of approximately 17% to 14%. The company believes that a better member experience will result in higher retention and drive members' perception of value, leading to increasing revenue. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $61 million to $65 million, representing a margin of approximately 28% to 29%.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/S Ratio of 0.38 and an EV/EBITDA of -3.78, the market appears to be pricing in significant challenges for Bumble. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at -11.0%, indicating a continued decline. However, the company's focus on quality and its product road map, driven by customer pain points, may help drive a return to growth in the long term.

Strategic Initiatives

Bumble is exploring a stand-alone AI product that will provide a precise search experience in the dating industry, leveraging its data and expertise to provide a modern experience for its members. The company is also investing in customer service, which is expected to have a meaningful impact on its members' lives. With a Free Cash Flow Yield of 45.89%, Bumble has the financial flexibility to invest in its strategic priorities.

3. NewsRoom

Bumble: Women's Dating App Has Cash Flow And Good Price

Nov -09

Source: seekingalpha.com

BMBL vs. ADSK: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?

Nov -07

Source: zacks.com

Spire Wealth Management Purchases New Shares in Bumble Inc. $BMBL

Nov -06

Source: defenseworld.net

Compared to Estimates, Bumble (BMBL) Q3 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics

Nov -06

Source: zacks.com

Bumble Inc. (BMBL) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -06

Source: seekingalpha.com

Bumble Inc. Announces Third Quarter 2025 Results

Nov -05

Source: businesswire.com

Bumble Inc. (NASDAQ:BMBL) Given Consensus Recommendation of “Reduce” by Brokerages

Oct -31

Source: defenseworld.net

Bumble: A Speculative Turnaround With Asymmetric Upside

Oct -21

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (9.61%)

6. Segments

Bumble App

Expected Growth: 10%

Bumble App's 10% growth driven by increasing online dating adoption, strong brand recognition, and user engagement. Key drivers include: 1) rising female empowerment, 2) growing demand for online relationships, 3) innovative features like BFF and Bizz, 4) expanding user base in international markets, and 5) effective marketing strategies.

Badoo App and Other

Expected Growth: 8%

Badoo App and Other from Bumble Inc. growth drivers: increasing online dating adoption, rising mobile usage, and growing demand for social entertainment. Strong brand recognition, user-friendly interface, and innovative features like location-based matching and live streaming contribute to the 8% growth. Additionally, strategic partnerships, effective marketing, and expanding into new markets fuel the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Bumble

A social networking app that allows users to connect with others based on location, interests, and preferences.

Bumble BFF

A feature within the Bumble app that allows users to find and connect with new friends.

Bumble Bizz

A feature within the Bumble app that allows users to network professionally and find career opportunities.

Hinge

A dating app that focuses on building meaningful connections between users.

8. Bumble Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bumble Inc. operates in a niche market with a unique value proposition, making it difficult for substitutes to emerge.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

While customers have some bargaining power due to the availability of alternative dating apps, Bumble's strong brand and unique features mitigate this power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Bumble Inc. does not rely heavily on suppliers, and its digital nature reduces the bargaining power of suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The online dating industry is highly competitive, and new entrants can easily enter the market, posing a significant threat to Bumble Inc.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The online dating industry is highly competitive, with many established players, leading to intense rivalry among companies, including Bumble Inc.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	27.56%
Debt Cost	3.95%
Equity Weight	72.44%
Equity Cost	12.36%
WACC	10.04%
Leverage	38.05%

11. Quality Control: Bumble Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Olo

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 3.5

Growth: 8.3

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

WM Technology

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 7.5

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 7.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Matterport

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

PagerDuty

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 3.9

Growth: 7.8

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Bumble

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 9.2

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Jamf

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 4.2

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

-9.36%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

10.04%

Bumble Inc. - US12047B1052

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on BMBL

1.c. Company Highlights

Weak Momentum

Average Quality

Fairly Valued

Earnings Beats

Stable Momentum

Revenues Miss

Cheaper

Revenues Beats

Earnings Miss

Medium Volatility

Lower Quality

2. Bumble's Quality-First Strategy Yields Mixed Results

Operational Highlights

Financial Outlook

Valuation and Growth Prospects

Strategic Initiatives

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (9.61%)

6. Segments

Bumble App

Expected Growth: 10%

Badoo App and Other

Expected Growth: 8%

7. Detailed Products

Bumble

Bumble BFF

Bumble Bizz

Hinge

8. Bumble Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Bumble Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

3.68$

Current Price

3.69$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA