Co-Diagnostics, Inc. (CODX) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Co-Diagnostics, Inc., a molecular diagnostics company, develops, manufactures, and sells reagents used for diagnostic tests that function through the detection and/or analysis of nucleic acid molecules in the United States and internationally.It offers polymerase chain reaction (PCR) diagnostic tests for COVID-19, tuberculosis, hepatitis B and C, human papilloma virus, malaria, chikungunya, dengue, and the zika virus; three multiplexed tests to test mosquitos for the identification of diseases carried by the mosquitos; and molecular tools for detection of infectious diseases, liquid biopsy for cancer screening, and agricultural applications.The company also provides tests that identify genetic traits in plant and animal genomes; and portable PCR device designed to bring PCR to patients in point-of-care and at-home settings.

In addition, it intends to sell diagnostic equipment from other manufacturers as self-contained lab systems.The company was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on CODX

The recent 3-month performance of Co-Diagnostics, Inc. was negatively impacted by a Q1 loss and revenue miss. The company reported a quarterly loss of $0.24 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.33. This compares to a loss of $0.31 per share in the same period last year. The revenue miss was a significant setback, as the company's revenue fell short of expectations.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	0.37
Change Percentage	-3.10%
Open	0.39
Previous Close	0.39
Market Cap ( Millions)	13
Volume	826799
Year High	1.55
Year Low	0.23
M A 50	0.39
M A 200	0.36

FCF Yield	-250.86%
Dividend Yield	0.00%
ROE	-70.27%
Debt / Equity	3.70%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	29.91%
Price To Book	0.36
Price Earnings Ratio	-0.44
Price To FCF	-0.4
Price To sales	24.97
EV / EBITDA	-0.08

2. Co-Diagnostics' Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strategic Positioning for Growth

Co-Diagnostics reported total revenue of $0.1 million for Q3 2025, with all revenue coming from product sales. The company's total operating expenses decreased to $7.1 million, and net loss was $5.9 million or $0.16 per fully diluted share, beating analyst estimates of -$0.19 EPS. The company ended the quarter with $11.4 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable investment securities, providing a solid foundation for future growth.

Publication Date: Nov -20

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    SPAC Transaction Potential:
                                                for CoSara Diagnostics could unlock value, with a focus on the $11.4M cash reserves as a financial buffer.
CoMira Joint Venture:
                                                expands into 19 MENA nations, leveraging $73.56B global infectious disease diagnostics market growth by 2030.
AI Business Unit:
                                                drives innovation, aiming to accelerate diagnostics while managing $7.1M operating expenses for 2025 Q3.
Upper Respiratory Test:
                                                clinical evaluations (flu, COVID, RSV) supported by NIH $RADx Tech grant, targeting $300–$500 price point at scale.
Financial Position:
                                                shows $0.1M revenue, $5.9M net loss, but $10.8M raised via direct offerings to fund 2026 commercial launches.

                                

Strategic Initiatives for Expansion

The company's leadership highlighted four main growth pillars, including the potential SPAC transaction for CoSara Diagnostics, the CoMira joint venture in Saudi Arabia, the AI business unit, and the initiation of clinical evaluations for the upper respiratory multiplex test. The CoMira joint venture will localize Co-Diagnostics' Co-Dx PCR platform across 19 countries in the Middle East and North Africa, creating a significant commercial footprint. The AI business unit is expected to drive innovation and operational efficiency, accelerating the development of proprietary AI-powered diagnostics.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/S Ratio of 21.14 and an expected revenue growth rate of 68.8% next year, Co-Diagnostics appears to be positioning for significant expansion. The company's ROE of -70.27% and ROIC of -82.08% indicate that it is still in a growth phase, investing heavily in its business. The current valuation metrics suggest that the market is pricing in a high growth rate, but the company's progress in its joint ventures and product pipeline may justify this optimism.

Product Pipeline and Market Opportunities

Co-Diagnostics is making progress in its product pipeline, including the upper respiratory multiplex test, which is expected to detect flu A, flu B, COVID-19, and RSV. The global market size for infectious disease diagnostics is expected to grow to $73.56 billion by 2030, providing a significant opportunity for the company. The company's products, including those for tuberculosis, HPV, and upper respiratory diseases, are relevant to the CoMira joint venture in the Middle East and North Africa.

Financial Management and Funding

The company has closed two strategic direct offerings totaling $10.8 million, providing additional funding for its growth initiatives. Co-Diagnostics is carefully managing its spending to maintain a healthy balance sheet while positioning for commercialization. The company's cash position and funding should support its progress in the development pipeline and regulatory submissions.

3. NewsRoom

Analysts Set Co-Diagnostics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CODX) PT at $1.83

Nov -29

Source: defenseworld.net

Co-Diagnostics Delivers Address about Tuberculosis Test Adoption and Implementation at The Union World Conference on Lung Health

Nov -20

Source: prnewswire.com

Co-Diagnostics Initiates Clinical Evaluations for Upper Respiratory Multiplex Point-of-Care Test on Co-Dx™ PCR Platform to Support Submission to the U.S. FDA

Nov -18

Source: prnewswire.com

Co-Diagnostics, Inc. (CODX) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -14

Source: seekingalpha.com

Co-Diagnostics, Inc. (CODX) Reports Q3 Loss, Misses Revenue Estimates

Nov -13

Source: zacks.com

Co-Diagnostics Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Nov -13

Source: prnewswire.com

Co-Diagnostics, Inc. (CODX) Discusses Saudi Arabia Joint Venture, AI Initiatives and Diagnostics Technology Developments Transcript

Nov -06

Source: seekingalpha.com

Co-Diagnostics Engages Maxim Group to Pursue SPAC Transaction for its Indian Joint Venture, CoSara Diagnostics Pvt. Ltd

Nov -05

Source: prnewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.95%)

6. Segments

Diagnostics Technologies

Expected Growth: 10.95%

Co-Diagnostics' Diagnostics Technologies segment growth is driven by increasing demand for molecular diagnostics, strategic partnerships, and expansion into new markets. The company's proprietary CoPrimer platform enables high-quality, low-cost diagnostics, fueling growth. Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated adoption of molecular diagnostics, further boosting segment growth.

7. Detailed Products

CoPrimer

A proprietary primer design technology that increases the sensitivity and specificity of PCR-based assays

Logix Smart COVID-19 Detection Kit

A real-time RT-PCR test kit for the detection of SARS-CoV-2

Logix Smart Influenza A/B Assay

A multiplex real-time RT-PCR test kit for the detection and differentiation of influenza A and B viruses

CoDx Box

A portable, handheld PCR device for point-of-care molecular diagnostics

CoPrimers

A line of proprietary PCR primers designed for use in molecular diagnostics

8. Co-Diagnostics, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Co-Diagnostics, Inc. has a low threat of substitutes due to its unique molecular diagnostics technology and proprietary CoPrimer platform, making it difficult for competitors to replicate.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Co-Diagnostics, Inc. has a medium bargaining power of customers due to the presence of a few large customers, but the company's diversified customer base and proprietary technology mitigate this risk.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Co-Diagnostics, Inc. has a low bargaining power of suppliers due to its ability to source raw materials and components from multiple suppliers, reducing dependence on any one supplier.

Threat Of New Entrants

Co-Diagnostics, Inc. faces a high threat of new entrants due to the growing demand for molecular diagnostics and the potential for new companies to enter the market with innovative technologies.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Co-Diagnostics, Inc. operates in a moderately competitive industry, with several established players, but the company's proprietary technology and strong intellectual property portfolio help to differentiate it from competitors.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	3.36%
Debt Cost	3.95%
Equity Weight	96.64%
Equity Cost	0.67%
WACC	0.78%
Leverage	3.48%

11. Quality Control: Co-Diagnostics, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

908 Devices

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 7.2

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Silk Road Medical

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Avanos Medical

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 8.9

Growth: 2.3

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Cerus

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 5.6

Growth: 6.9

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

TELA Bio

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 7.8

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Co-Diagnostics

A-Score: 2.4/10

Value: 7.8

Growth: 2.4

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

9.38%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

0.78%

Co-Diagnostics, Inc. - US1897631057

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on CODX

1.c. Company Highlights

Average Quality

Fairly Valued

Average Growth

Earnings Miss

Revenues Miss

Medium Volatility

Earnings Beats

Revenues Beats

Lower Growth

Stable Momentum

Weak Momentum

More Volatile

2. Co-Diagnostics' Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strategic Positioning for Growth

Strategic Initiatives for Expansion

Valuation and Growth Prospects

Product Pipeline and Market Opportunities

Financial Management and Funding

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.95%)

6. Segments

Diagnostics Technologies

Expected Growth: 10.95%

7. Detailed Products

CoPrimer

Logix Smart COVID-19 Detection Kit

Logix Smart Influenza A/B Assay

CoDx Box

CoPrimers

8. Co-Diagnostics, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Co-Diagnostics, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

0.37$

Current Price

0.37$

Potential

0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA