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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

CTO Realty Growth, Inc.is a Florida-based publicly traded real estate company, which owns income properties comprised of approximately 2.4 million square feet in diversified markets in the United States and an approximately 23.5% interest in Alpine Income Property Trust, Inc., a publicly traded net lease real estate investment trust (NYSE: PINE).

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1.b. Last Insights on CTO

CTO Realty Growth's recent performance has been impacted by poor financial prospects, despite its strong growth prospects. The company's financials have been affected by its high leverage profile, with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 6.4x. However, its robust growth with a 96% occupancy rate, $91.4 million annualized base rent, and significant portfolio expansion to 4.6 million square feet, indicate solid fundamentals. The company's recent earnings release showed a beat on FFO and revenue estimates, with FFO of $0.49 per share.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. CTO Realty Growth's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Leasing Activity Boosts Performance

CTO Realty Growth reported a core FFO of $15.6 million for Q3 2025, a $3 million increase compared to $12.6 million in the comparable quarter of the prior year. On a per share basis, core FFO was $0.48 per share compared to $0.50 per share in the comparable quarter of the prior year. The actual EPS came out at $0.03 relative to estimates at $0.49. Same-property NOI increased 2.3% during the quarter, driven by leasing activity. Year-to-date, the company completed 482,000 square feet of leasing activity, including 424,000 square feet of comparable leasing at a 21.7% weighted average base rent spread.

Publication Date: Nov -06

📋 Highlights
  • Strong Leasing Activity:: Completed 482,000 sq ft of leasing (21.7% rent spread) YTD, including 143,000 sq ft of new retail leases at $23/sq ft in Q3.
  • Significant Asset Acquisition:: Agreed to acquire a Florida shopping center, funded via line of credit and asset recycling, with 85% leased at Shops at Legacy (243,000 sq ft).
  • Enhanced Liquidity:: Ended Q3 with $170M liquidity ($161M credit facility + $9M cash) after refinancing and debt terming, supporting capital recycling.
  • Revised Guidance:: Raised full-year 2025 core FFO to $1.84–$1.87/share (up from $1.80–$1.86) and AFFO to $1.96–$1.99/share (up from $1.93–$1.98).

Operational Highlights

The company executed 143,000 square feet of new retail leases, renewals, and extensions at an average base rent of $23 per square foot in Q3. The Shops at Legacy, a 243,000 square foot mixed-use lifestyle center in Dallas, Texas, saw a significant lease signing. The lease percentage at the Shops at Legacy stands at approximately 85%. The company recently agreed to acquire a shopping center in South Florida, which is expected to close before year-end.

Financing and Liquidity

The company recently termed out some debt and refreshed its revolving credit facility, providing enhanced liquidity. CTO Realty Growth ended the quarter with approximately $170 million of liquidity, consisting of $161 million available under its revolving credit facility and $9 million in cash. The acquisition of the South Florida shopping center will be initially funded using the company's line of credit.

Outlook and Valuation

The company is raising both its core FFO and AFFO outlook for the full year of 2025. The new core FFO range has increased to $1.84 to $1.87 per diluted share from the previous $1.80 to $1.86 per share. With a current P/E Ratio of -16.73 and a Dividend Yield of 8.9%, the stock appears to be undervalued. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 5.4%. The company's capital allocation strategy includes the potential for investing in Pine and the current stock buyback program, with the goal of matching potential acquisitions with the right assets to recycle capital into value-add, higher-growth assets with higher yields.

Investment Pipeline

The company has a $5.5 million signed-not-open pipeline, with approximately 76% of the annual cash base rents anticipated to be recognized in 2026 and 100% in 2027. CTO Realty Growth is bidding on several assets but does not expect any additional deals to close in 2025 beyond the Florida shopping center transaction. For 2026, the acquisition environment looks promising, with potential for capital recycling from stabilized assets.

3. NewsRoom

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CTO Realty Growth: Buy A High-Quality REIT Offering 8.4% Yield

Dec -03

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Financial Review: CTO Realty Growth (NYSE:CTO) vs. Plymouth Industrial REIT (NYSE:PLYM)

Dec -03

Source: defenseworld.net

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CTO Realty Growth: Buy This 9% Yield While It's Undervalued

Nov -22

Source: seekingalpha.com

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CTO Realty Growth Declares Dividends for the Fourth Quarter 2025

Nov -18

Source: globenewswire.com

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CTO Realty Growth Provides Leasing Update at the Shops at Legacy

Nov -14

Source: globenewswire.com

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CTO Realty Growth Announces Grand Opening of the Picklr at the Collection at Forsyth

Nov -06

Source: globenewswire.com

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Shopping Center REITs Arbitrage Public To Private Asset Pricing Spread

Nov -05

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Analyzing CTO Realty Growth (NYSE:CTO) & Vornado Realty Trust (NYSE:VNO)

Nov -05

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.95%)

6. Segments

Income Properties

Expected Growth: 4.65%

CTO Realty Growth, Inc.'s 4.65% growth in Income Properties is driven by increasing demand for industrial and logistics spaces, e-commerce growth, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on high-growth markets, such as last-mile delivery and cold storage facilities, contributes to its growth momentum.

Management Services

Expected Growth: 8.5%

CTO Realty Growth, Inc.'s 8.5% growth in Management Services is driven by increasing demand for outsourced property management, strategic acquisitions, and expansion into new markets. Additionally, the company's focus on technology integration, cost savings initiatives, and strong relationships with property owners and investors contribute to its growth momentum.

Commercial Loans and Investments

Expected Growth: 8.9%

CTO Realty Growth, Inc.'s 8.9% growth in Commercial Loans and Investments is driven by increasing demand for commercial properties, low interest rates, and government incentives for real estate development. Additionally, the company's strategic expansion into new markets, diversification of loan products, and strong relationships with borrowers have contributed to this growth.

Real Estate

Expected Growth: 4.83%

CTO Realty Growth, Inc.'s 4.83% growth in Real Estate is driven by increasing demand for housing, low interest rates, and government incentives. Additionally, the company's strategic expansion into new markets, diversification of property types, and effective cost management have contributed to its growth.

7. Detailed Products

Net Lease Properties

CTO Realty Growth, Inc. offers a diversified portfolio of net lease properties, providing a stable source of income through long-term leases with high-credit tenants.

Grocery-Anchored Shopping Centers

The company's portfolio includes grocery-anchored shopping centers, which provide a stable source of income through long-term leases with creditworthy tenants.

Dollar Stores

CTO Realty Growth, Inc. owns and operates a portfolio of dollar stores, providing a stable source of income through long-term leases with creditworthy tenants.

Free-Standing Retail Properties

The company's portfolio includes free-standing retail properties, which provide a stable source of income through long-term leases with creditworthy tenants.

Land Investments

CTO Realty Growth, Inc. invests in land for future development, providing a potential source of long-term appreciation in value.

8. CTO Realty Growth, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for CTO Realty Growth, Inc. is medium due to the availability of alternative investment options in the real estate industry.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for CTO Realty Growth, Inc. is low due to the company's strong brand reputation and limited alternatives for customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for CTO Realty Growth, Inc. is medium due to the company's dependence on a few key suppliers for materials and services.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for CTO Realty Growth, Inc. is high due to the relatively low barriers to entry in the real estate industry and the attractiveness of the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for CTO Realty Growth, Inc. is high due to the highly competitive nature of the real estate industry and the presence of several established players.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 54.42%
Debt Cost 4.90%
Equity Weight 45.58%
Equity Cost 6.89%
WACC 5.81%
Leverage 119.38%

11. Quality Control: CTO Realty Growth, Inc. passed 1 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Gladstone Commercial

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 5.3

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 9.7

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One Liberty Properties

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 5.2

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 9.3

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Urban Edge

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 4.9

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 7.8

Yield: 8.0

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Volatility: 9.0

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CTO Realty Growth

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 5.7

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 9.3

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American Assets Trust

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 5.2

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 8.0

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Presidio Property Trust

A-Score: 2.8/10

Value: 5.6

Growth: 0.8

Quality: 2.6

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 0.0

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

18.0$

Current Price

18$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows