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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Exact Sciences Corporation provides cancer screening and diagnostic test products in the United States and internationally.The company offers Cologuard, a non-invasive stool-based DNA screening test to detect DNA and hemoglobin biomarkers associated with colorectal cancer and pre-cancer.It also provides Oncotype DX, a gene expression tests for breast, prostate, and colon cancers; Oncotype Test, a tissue test delivering tumor profiling to aid therapy selection for patients with advanced, metastatic, refractory, or recurrent cancer; Oncotype DX AR-V7 Nucleus Detect Test, a liquid-based test for advanced stage prostate cancer; Oncomap ExTra, that provides a complete biological picture of certain refractory, rare, or aggressive cancers; and Covid-19 testing services.


The company's pipeline products focus on enhancing the Cologuard test's performance characteristics and developing blood and other fluid-based tests.It has license agreements with MAYO Foundation for Medical Education and Research; and Hologic, Inc.Exact Sciences Corporation was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Madison, Wisconsin.

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1.b. Last Insights on EXAS

Exact Sciences Corporation's recent performance has been driven by several positive factors. The company's Q3 2025 earnings call revealed improved operational and financial performance, lifting its upside potential. Earnings estimates have been rising, with solid revisions indicating potential for continued growth. Additionally, the company's Cologuard and Oncotype DX products have seen significant growth. A proposed acquisition by Abbott Laboratories for $105 per share has also garnered attention, with several law firms investigating the deal's fairness to shareholders. Institutional investors, such as Allworth Financial LP, have increased their holdings in the company.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Exact Sciences' Q3 2025 Earnings: Strong Revenue Growth and Margin Expansion

Exact Sciences reported record results in Q3 2025, with revenue growing 20% year-over-year to $851 million, driven by strong brand awareness and commercial execution of Cologuard. Adjusted EBITDA grew 37% year-over-year to $135 million, with adjusted EBITDA margins expanding 200 basis points to 16%. The company's EPS came in at $0.24, beating estimates of $0.13. Free cash flow was $190 million during the quarter, an increase of $77 million.

Publication Date: Nov -14

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth:: Q3 2025 revenue surged 20% to $851 million, driven by 22% growth in Cologuard screening revenue ($666 million).
  • Adjusted EBITDA Expansion:: Adjusted EBITDA rose 37% to $135 million, with margins expanding 200 bps to 16%.
  • Full-Year Guidance Raised:: Revenue now projected at $3.22 billion (20% YoY growth), adjusted EBITDA expected at $470 million (14.7% growth).
  • Cancerguard Launch:: Launched multi-cancer early detection test screening over 50 cancer types, targeting significant care gaps in oncology.
  • Cost Savings Progress:: $150 million cost savings program on track, with $10 million under original one-time expense projections.

Revenue Growth Drivers

The growth was driven by Cologuard's strong brand awareness, commercial execution, and health systems integrations. Kevin Conroy highlighted the Exact Sciences team's execution and commercial effectiveness, expanding access to Cologuard Plus and driving adoption of new tests. The company is also seeing strong demand from payers for Cologuard, but it will take more work to get the uplift in care gap compliance.

Guidance Raise and Future Prospects

Exact Sciences is raising its full-year 2025 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, with revenue expected to grow 20% to $3.22 billion and adjusted EBITDA expected to grow 14.7% to $470 million. The company is also making progress on its $150 million cost savings program and expects to come in about $10 million lighter on one-time expenses this year.

Valuation and Growth Expectations

With a P/S Ratio of 4.17 and an EV/EBITDA of -16.74, the market is pricing in significant growth expectations. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 13.7%. The company's focus on care gap compliance and its commitment to investing in areas where they can help patients the most, such as the launch of Cancerguard, a multi-cancer early detection test, will be crucial in driving future growth.

New Product Launches and Pipeline

The company launched Cancerguard, which screens for more than 50 cancer types and subtypes, and is leveraging its extensive relationships with healthcare systems and frontline sales reps to promote the test. The company is also working on its CRC blood test, licensed from Freenome, and plans to educate physicians and clinicians on which patient population is best suited for each test.

Margin Expectations

Aaron Bloomer mentioned that the company expects a 300-400 basis point impact on growth in the fourth quarter due to Cologuard Plus pricing and mix. However, the company is on track to achieve its long-term goal of 20% adjusted EBITDA margin, indicating potential for margin expansion in the future.

3. NewsRoom

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Fisher Asset Management LLC Sells 27,925 Shares of Exact Sciences Corporation $EXAS

Dec -04

Source: defenseworld.net

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Top 2 Health Care Stocks You May Want To Dump This Month

Dec -02

Source: benzinga.com

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Advisors Asset Management Inc. Cuts Position in Exact Sciences Corporation $EXAS

Dec -01

Source: defenseworld.net

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This Top Dividend King Just Became an Even Better Buy

Nov -30

Source: fool.com

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Exact Sciences Corporation (NASDAQ:EXAS) Given Consensus Recommendation of “Hold” by Analysts

Nov -29

Source: defenseworld.net

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HAPPY THANKSGIVING AND ALERT: The M&A Class Action Firm Continues to Investigate the Merger – EXAS, SEE, CDTX, and MRSN

Nov -27

Source: globenewswire.com

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Exact Sciences Reinforces International Leadership in Breast Cancer with Strong Presence at 2025 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium

Nov -24

Source: businesswire.com

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EXAS Alert: Monsey Firm of Wohl & Fruchter Investigating Fairness of the Sale of Exact Sciences to Abbott Laboratories

Nov -24

Source: globenewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (9.02%)

6. Segments

Screening

Expected Growth: 8%

Exact Sciences Corporation's 8% growth is driven by increasing adoption of Cologuard, its non-invasive colorectal cancer screening test, and expansion into new markets. Growing demand for early cancer detection, increasing awareness of preventive care, and strategic partnerships are also contributing to the company's growth.

Precision Oncology

Expected Growth: 12%

Exact Sciences' Precision Oncology segment growth is driven by increasing adoption of Cologuard, a non-invasive colorectal cancer screening test, and Oncotype DX, a genetic test for breast cancer recurrence risk. Expanding reimbursement, growing demand for personalized medicine, and strategic partnerships are also contributing to the 12% growth rate.

COVID-19 Testing

Expected Growth: 15%

The 15% growth of COVID-19 testing from Exact Sciences Corporation is driven by increasing demand for rapid testing, government initiatives to expand testing capacity, and the company's strategic partnerships to increase access to its testing solutions. Additionally, the ongoing pandemic and emergence of new variants have sustained the need for frequent testing, contributing to the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Cologuard

A non-invasive, stool-based DNA test for colorectal cancer screening

Oncotype DX

A genomic test that analyzes the activity of 21 genes in breast cancer tumors

Oncotype DX AR-V7 Nucleus Detect

A liquid biopsy test that detects the androgen receptor splice variant 7 (AR-V7) protein in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer

Oncotype DX GPS (Genomic Prostate Score)

A genomic test that analyzes the activity of 17 genes in prostate cancer tumors

8. Exact Sciences Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Exact Sciences Corporation has a moderate threat of substitutes due to the presence of alternative diagnostic tests and treatments for cancer. However, the company's non-invasive, multi-cancer early detection test, Cologuard, has a unique value proposition that differentiates it from competitors.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Exact Sciences Corporation has a low bargaining power of customers due to the fragmented nature of the healthcare industry. Patients and healthcare providers have limited negotiating power, and the company's products are often reimbursed by insurance providers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Exact Sciences Corporation has a moderate bargaining power of suppliers due to the presence of multiple suppliers for raw materials and components. However, the company's reliance on a few key suppliers for certain components may limit its negotiating power.

Threat Of New Entrants

Exact Sciences Corporation faces a high threat of new entrants due to the growing interest in cancer diagnostics and the relatively low barriers to entry in the industry. New entrants may disrupt the market with innovative technologies and business models.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Exact Sciences Corporation operates in a highly competitive industry with several established players and new entrants. The company faces intense rivalry from companies such as Guardant Health, Foundation Medicine, and Illumina, which may lead to pricing pressure and increased marketing expenses.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 44.82%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 55.18%
Equity Cost 10.23%
WACC 7.42%
Leverage 81.22%

11. Quality Control: Exact Sciences Corporation passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
RadNet

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 3.8

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 3.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 5.0

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Twist Bioscience

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Exact Sciences

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Sotera Health

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 1.4

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 3.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Charles River Laboratories

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 3.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Revvity

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 3.0

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

101.06$

Current Price

101.06$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows