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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Frontdoor, Inc.provides home service plans in the United States.The company's home service plans cover the repair or replacement of principal components of approximately 20 home systems and appliances, including electrical, plumbing, water heaters, refrigerators, dishwashers, and ranges/ovens/cooktops, as well as electronics, pools, and spas and pumps; and central heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems.


It also offers ProConnect on-demand home services business and Streem, a technology platform that uses augmented reality, computer vision, and machine learning that helps home service professionals quickly and accurately diagnose breakdowns and complete repairs.The company serves homeowners under the American Home Shield, HSA, Landmark Home Warranty, OneGuard, Frontdoor, and Streem brands.The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.

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1.b. Last Insights on FTDR

Frontdoor, Inc.'s recent performance was negatively impacted by a pullback in its stock price, which dropped by 12.7% in under a month. Despite a strong Q4 2025 earnings report, which showed a beat on both revenue and EPS, concerns may have arisen. The company's growth momentum from the 2-10 acquisition and fast-growing non-warranty services may be overshadowed by market skepticism. With a "Hold" consensus rating from analysts, as reported by Marketbeat.com, and an average price target of $61.50, investors may be cautious.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Frontdoor's Strong 2025 Results Set Stage for Continued Growth

Frontdoor's 2025 revenue increased 14% year-over-year to nearly $2.1 billion, driven by a 2-10 volume growth, expansion in non-warranty, and price increases. The company's gross profit margin reached a record 55%, and net income grew 9% to $255 million. Adjusted EBITDA grew 25% to $553 million, with a record $280 million spent on share repurchases. The actual EPS came out at $0.23, beating estimates of $0.11, showcasing the company's strong profitability.

Publication Date: Mar -01

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth: 2025 revenue rose 14% to $2.1 billion, driven by 2-10 volume, non-warranty expansion, and price increases.
  • Gross Margin Record: Gross profit margin hit 55%, while net income grew 9% to $255 million, and adjusted EBITDA surged 25% to $553 million.
  • Share Repurchases: $280 million spent on share repurchases, with $390 million in free cash flow and a target to complete authorizations by early 2027.
  • Member Growth & Programs: Member count stabilized in 2025, with 5% growth expected in 2026; HVAC upgrade program grew 48% to $128 million.
  • 2026 Outlook: Revenue forecasted at $2.155–$2.195 billion, with 26% adjusted EBITDA margins and a long-term EBITDA margin target raised to mid-20% range.

Operational Highlights

The company stabilized its member count in 2025, a key milestone, and expects member count to grow in 2026, driven by continued strength in first-year channels. The new HVAC upgrade program grew 48% to $128 million, and the company launched an appliance upgrade program in select markets, indicating a successful expansion of its service offerings.

Outlook and Guidance

For 2026, revenue is expected to be in the range of $2.155 billion to $2.195 billion, with adjusted EBITDA margins around 26%. The company expects to maintain strong gross margin levels and generate significant cash flow, driving long-term value creation. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 5.8%, aligning with the company's guidance for low single-digit growth.

Valuation and Return Metrics

Frontdoor's current valuation metrics, including a P/E Ratio of 19.28, P/S Ratio of 2.36, and EV/EBITDA of 11.56, indicate a reasonable valuation. The company's ROIC of 20.73% and ROE of 101.09% demonstrate its ability to generate strong returns on capital and equity. The Free Cash Flow Yield of 7.87% is also attractive, suggesting a potential upside in the stock.

Growth Initiatives and Investments

The company plans to invest in growth engines like non-warranty, sales and marketing, and AI tools to drive efficiency. They are prioritizing growing ending member count, with a balanced approach to investments and low CapEx of $30 million to $35 million, generating significant cash. The home warranty count is expected to grow 5% this year, driven by growth in first-year real estate and direct-to-consumer channels.

3. NewsRoom

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American Home Shield and Rachel Dratch Return for Year Three of “Warrantina” to Demystify the Misconceptions of Home Warranties

Mar -31

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Assenagon Asset Management S.A. Raises Stake in Frontdoor Inc. $FTDR

Mar -30

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Critical Survey: Frontdoor (NASDAQ:FTDR) vs. Owens Corning (NYSE:OC)

Mar -25

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Frontdoor Stock Pullback: A Buying Opportunity Or A Value Trap?

Mar -19

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Dennis Howard Joins Frontdoor Board of Directors

Mar -17

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Algert Global LLC Acquires 51,214 Shares of Frontdoor Inc. $FTDR

Mar -15

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Frontdoor (NASDAQ:FTDR) vs. Compagnie de Saint-Gobain (OTCMKTS:CODYY) Head-To-Head Contrast

Mar -15

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Holcim (OTCMKTS:HCMLY) and Frontdoor (NASDAQ:FTDR) Head to Head Contrast

Mar -13

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (6.50%)

6. Segments

General Contractors

Expected Growth: 7.0%

The home repair and remodeling market is driven by factors such as aging housing stock, increasing homeowner affluence, and a trend towards outsourcing home maintenance. General Contractors is poised to capitalize on these trends, leveraging its network of contractors to deliver high-quality services. The segment's growth is expected to be slightly above the global average, driven by its strong market position and the growing demand for its services.

7. Detailed Products

American Home Shield Home Warranty

A home warranty that provides protection against unexpected repair and replacement costs for major home systems and appliances.

HSA Home Warranty

A home warranty that provides coverage for home systems and appliances, with flexible pricing and coverage options.

OneGuard Home Warranty

A home warranty that provides comprehensive coverage for home systems and appliances, with a focus on customer service.

ProConnect Home Services

A home services platform that connects homeowners with pre-screened and qualified professionals for home repair and maintenance needs.

Streem Home Services

A home services platform that provides on-demand home repair and maintenance services, with a focus on convenience and speed.

8. Frontdoor, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Frontdoor, Inc. operates in a highly competitive market, but the threat of substitutes is mitigated by the company's strong brand recognition and customer loyalty.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Frontdoor, Inc. has a large customer base, but the bargaining power of customers is high due to the availability of alternative service providers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Frontdoor, Inc. has a diversified supplier base, which reduces the bargaining power of suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is moderate due to the high barriers to entry in the home services market, but Frontdoor, Inc. must continue to innovate to stay ahead of potential competitors.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The home services market is highly competitive, and Frontdoor, Inc. faces intense rivalry from established players and new entrants.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 81.66%
Debt Cost 8.39%
Equity Weight 18.34%
Equity Cost 8.39%
WACC 8.39%
Leverage 445.26%

11. Quality Control: Frontdoor, Inc. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
H&R Block

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 7.8

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 6.7

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Rollins

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 0.5

Growth: 7.1

Quality: 7.7

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
SCI

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 3.7

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Graphic Packaging

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 7.8

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Frontdoor

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 6.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Bright Horizons Family Solutions

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 3.1

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

54.58$

Current Price

54.58$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows