Download PDF

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Horizon Bancorp, Inc.operates as the bank holding company for Horizon Bank that provides a range of commercial and retail banking services.The company offers various deposits.


It also provides commercial, residential real estate, mortgage warehouse, and consumer loans.In addition, the company offers corporate and individual trust and agency, investment management, and real estate investment trust services; and sells various insurance products.It operates through a network of 78 full-service offices in northern and central Indiana and southern and central Michigan.


Horizon Bancorp, Inc.was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in Michigan City, Indiana.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on HBNC

Horizon Bancorp's recent performance was negatively driven by a miss in Q4 earnings and revenue estimates, with EPS of $0.36 per share, falling short of the expected $0.39 per share. This earnings miss, combined with a year-over-year increase in medical care ratios, likely weighed on the company's performance. Additionally, the company's failure to meet Wall Street estimates for key metrics, such as revenue and profitability, may have also contributed to the negative sentiment.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Horizon Bancorp's Q4 2025 Earnings Shine with Strong NIM and Loan Growth

Horizon Bancorp reported a robust fourth quarter, with annualized return on average assets above 1.6% and return on average equity approaching 16%. The net interest margin expanded to 4.29%, exceeding the upper end of the guidance range. Earnings per share came in at $0.53, beating estimates of $0.5. Revenue growth is expected to be around 5.1% in 2026, driven by mid-single digit growth in period-end loans and deposit balances.

Publication Date: Mar -06

📋 Highlights
  • Strong Return Metrics:: Annualized return on average assets (ROA) exceeded 1.6%, ROE approached 16%, and net interest margin (NIM) reached 4.29% in Q4 2025.
  • Loan Growth:: Total loans increased to $4.9 billion, with $76 million in commercial loan growth (9% annualized), split 28% C&I and 72% CRE.
  • NIM Expansion:: NIM expanded 77 bps to 4.29% in Q4, totaling 188 bps since Q3 2023, with 2026 guidance of 4.25–4.35%.
  • 2026 Outlook:: Mid-single-digit loan/deposit growth, non-FTE net interest income growth in low teens YoY, and fee income projected at ~$40 million.
  • Asset Quality:: Substandard loans rose $3 million (commercial +$2.2M, consumer +$800K), but NPA increases remained modest and non-concentrated.

Loan Growth and Credit Quality

Total loans grew by $60.7 million to $4.9 billion, with commercial loans increasing by $76 million, representing 9% annualized growth. The loan portfolio mix remains well-balanced, with 28% in commercial and industrial and 72% in commercial real estate. Credit quality remains strong, with non-performing assets increasing modestly from a low base. As Lynn Kerber noted, "We're starting from a low base, and our overall metrics are still strong."

Deposit Portfolio and Net Interest Margin

The deposit portfolio remains stable and granular, with a reduced exposure to high-cost transactional deposits. The net interest margin expansion was driven by new originations with yields above 6.5% and cash flows coming off the portfolio below 6%. John Stewart mentioned that deposit growth and core deposit generation will be key drivers of the margin.

Outlook and Valuation

For 2026, Horizon expects mid-single digit growth in loans and deposits, with non-FTE net interest income growing in the low teens. Fee income is expected to be around $40 million, and expenses are expected to be around $160 million. With a Price-to-Tangible Book Value (P/TBV) of approximately 1.24, and a Dividend Yield of 3.83%, the stock appears reasonably valued. The expected growth and peer-leading returns on assets and tangible common equity should support the stock's valuation.

Capital Deployment and Growth Initiatives

Horizon remains focused on supporting growth through organic business expansion, with a strong commercial loan pipeline and a disciplined approach to capital decisions. The company is also exploring opportunities to add to its treasury management team. With a solid capital position and a derisked balance sheet, Horizon is well-positioned for steady growth and durable returns.

3. NewsRoom

Card image cap

Horizon Bancorp (IN) (HBNC) to Release Quarterly Earnings on Wednesday

Apr -15

Card image cap

Deprince Race & Zollo Inc. Purchases 40,913 Shares of Horizon Bancorp (IN) $HBNC

Apr -14

Card image cap

Horizon Bancorp, Inc. Announces Conference Call to Review First Quarter Results on April 23

Apr -01

Card image cap

Horizon Bancorp (IN) (NASDAQ:HBNC) Given Average Recommendation of “Hold” by Analysts

Mar -29

Card image cap

Head to Head Analysis: Eastern Bankshares (NASDAQ:EBC) versus Horizon Bancorp (IN) (NASDAQ:HBNC)

Mar -07

Card image cap

Horizon Bancorp (IN) (NASDAQ:HBNC) Receives Average Recommendation of “Hold” from Brokerages

Mar -04

Card image cap

Jupiter Asset Management Ltd. Invests $684,000 in Horizon Bancorp (IN) $HBNC

Feb -23

Card image cap

Horizon Bancorp (IN) (NASDAQ:HBNC) Short Interest Down 14.9% in January

Feb -16

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (14.00%)

6. Segments

Commercial Banking

Expected Growth: 14%

Horizon Bancorp, Inc.'s 14% commercial banking growth is driven by strategic acquisitions, expansion into new markets, and a strong loan pipeline. Additionally, the bank's focus on relationship-based banking, competitive pricing, and efficient operations have contributed to its growth. Furthermore, a favorable interest rate environment and a growing demand for commercial loans have also supported the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Commercial Loans

Horizon Bancorp offers a range of commercial loan products to support businesses of all sizes, including lines of credit, term loans, and construction loans.

Consumer Loans

Horizon Bancorp offers personal loans, home equity loans, and credit cards to individuals for various purposes, such as debt consolidation, home improvements, or major purchases.

Mortgage Loans

Horizon Bancorp offers a range of mortgage loan products, including fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages, government-backed loans, and construction loans.

Deposit Accounts

Horizon Bancorp offers a range of deposit accounts, including checking, savings, money market, and certificate of deposit (CD) accounts.

Treasury Management Services

Horizon Bancorp offers treasury management services, including cash management, wire transfer, and account reconciliation services, to help businesses manage their cash flow and optimize financial performance.

Wealth Management Services

Horizon Bancorp offers wealth management services, including investment management, trust services, and retirement planning, to help individuals and businesses achieve their long-term financial goals.

8. Horizon Bancorp, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Horizon Bancorp, Inc. operates in a highly competitive industry, but the threat of substitutes is mitigated by the complexity and specialization of banking services.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Horizon Bancorp, Inc. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's products and services are often tailored to specific customer needs, making it difficult for customers to switch to competitors.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Horizon Bancorp, Inc. is a significant player in the banking industry, which gives it bargaining power over its suppliers. The company's suppliers are often smaller and more dependent on Horizon Bancorp, Inc. for business, reducing their bargaining power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The banking industry has significant barriers to entry, including regulatory hurdles and high capital requirements. This makes it difficult for new entrants to compete with established players like Horizon Bancorp, Inc.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The banking industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share. Horizon Bancorp, Inc. faces intense competition from larger banks and fintech companies, which can erode its market share and profitability.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 67.10%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 32.90%
Equity Cost 9.07%
WACC 5.63%
Leverage 203.93%

11. Quality Control: Horizon Bancorp, Inc. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
First Bank

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 7.8

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
SmartFinancial

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 7.3

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Horizon Bancorp

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 7.3

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
NSTS Bancorp

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 7.9

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Live Oak Bancshares

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 8.3

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Cambridge Bank

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 3.1

Growth: 2.4

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

18.01$

Current Price

18.01$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows