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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Horizon Bancorp, Inc.operates as the bank holding company for Horizon Bank that provides a range of commercial and retail banking services.The company offers various deposits.


It also provides commercial, residential real estate, mortgage warehouse, and consumer loans.In addition, the company offers corporate and individual trust and agency, investment management, and real estate investment trust services; and sells various insurance products.It operates through a network of 78 full-service offices in northern and central Indiana and southern and central Michigan.


Horizon Bancorp, Inc.was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in Michigan City, Indiana.

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1.b. Last Insights on HBNC

Horizon Bancorp's recent performance was negatively driven by a miss in Q4 earnings and revenue estimates, with EPS of $0.36 per share, falling short of the expected $0.39 per share. This earnings miss, combined with a year-over-year increase in medical care ratios, likely weighed on the company's performance. Additionally, the company's failure to meet Wall Street estimates for key metrics, such as revenue and profitability, may have also contributed to the negative sentiment.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Horizon Bancorp's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Horizon Bancorp reported a net interest margin expansion of 110 basis points from Q4 2023, with a net interest margin of 4.2% to 4.3% expected by the end of 2025 and through 2026. The company's earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.3, below analyst estimates of $0.46. Revenue growth is expected to be 9.4% next year, indicating a positive outlook. The company's financial performance demonstrates top-tier financial metrics, with a strong commercial loan growth and a well-executed balance sheet restructuring.

Publication Date: Oct -28

📋 Highlights
  • Balance Sheet Restructuring Success: Net interest margin expanded 110 bps since Q4 2023, exceeding initial expectations with commercial loans driving growth.
  • Deposit Portfolio Stability: Noninterest balances remain resilient, with $210 million from indirect auto loan runoff/sale offsetting higher-rate deposit outflows.
  • Noninterest Income Impact: $299 million loss on securities sale and $7.7 million indirect auto portfolio loss skewed results, but fee-based businesses performed well otherwise.
  • Capital Generation Outlook: Net interest margin projected to stabilize at 4.2%-4.3% through 2026, with ROA expected to reach 1.60% by Q4 2025.
  • Expense and Leverage Trends: Prepayment penalties ($12.7 million) impacted expenses, but leverage ratios expected to rebound to Q2 levels by Q4 2025.

Balance Sheet Strength

The company's balance sheet restructuring effort has exceeded initial expectations, with a more liquid and lower-risk securities portfolio. The net loans held for investment decreased by $162 million in the quarter, driven by a $210 million combined impact of quarterly runoff and sale of indirect auto loans. Commercial loans continued to be the primary lending focus, with a net growth of $58 million in the quarter.

Deposit Portfolio and Credit Quality

The deposit portfolio displayed strength, with noninterest balances remaining resilient. The company's credit quality remained excellent, with a strong commercial credit profile and a modest number of nonperforming loans. The indirect auto loan portfolio, which previously drove a significant portion of charge-offs, has been exited, enhancing the overall credit profile.

Valuation and Outlook

Using relevant valuation metrics for banks, the Price-to-Tangible Book Value (P/TBV) is not directly available, but the Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B Ratio) is 1.16. The Net Interest Margin (NIM) is expected to remain in the range of 4.2% to 4.3%. The Dividend Yield is 3.94%, indicating a relatively attractive yield for investors. With a strong outlook for 2026, driven by steady loan growth and potential M&A activity, the company's prospects appear positive.

Growth Prospects

Horizon expects to have steady loan growth in 2026, driven by organic growth and potential M&A activity. The company has a strong team in place and does not plan to add significant staff to support growth. The growth rate in the core franchise was solid in '25, with commercial growth in the low double digits on a consistent basis. Moving into '26, the company anticipates mid-single-digit growth, driven by lending options and a disciplined credit profile.

3. NewsRoom

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Intech Investment Management LLC Decreases Stock Position in Horizon Bancorp (IN) $HBNC

Dec -01

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Creative Planning Acquires 53,924 Shares of Horizon Bancorp (IN) $HBNC

Nov -27

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Horizon Bancorp: Attractive Given A Transformed Balance Sheet

Nov -22

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Connor Clark & Lunn Investment Management Ltd. Has $2.06 Million Stake in Horizon Bancorp (IN) $HBNC

Nov -17

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Horizon Bancorp Inc. IN Purchases 3,556 Shares of Apple Inc. $AAPL

Nov -05

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Horizon Bancorp Inc. IN Buys 484 Shares of Microsoft Corporation $MSFT

Nov -04

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Horizon Bancorp Inc. IN Sells 637 Shares of NVIDIA Corporation $NVDA

Oct -31

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Best Income Stocks to Buy for Oct. 29th

Oct -29

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (14.00%)

6. Segments

Commercial Banking

Expected Growth: 14%

Horizon Bancorp, Inc.'s 14% commercial banking growth is driven by strategic acquisitions, expansion into new markets, and a strong loan pipeline. Additionally, the bank's focus on relationship-based banking, competitive pricing, and efficient operations have contributed to its growth. Furthermore, a favorable interest rate environment and a growing demand for commercial loans have also supported the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Commercial Loans

Horizon Bancorp offers a range of commercial loan products to support businesses of all sizes, including lines of credit, term loans, and construction loans.

Consumer Loans

Horizon Bancorp offers personal loans, home equity loans, and credit cards to individuals for various purposes, such as debt consolidation, home improvements, or major purchases.

Mortgage Loans

Horizon Bancorp offers a range of mortgage loan products, including fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages, government-backed loans, and construction loans.

Deposit Accounts

Horizon Bancorp offers a range of deposit accounts, including checking, savings, money market, and certificate of deposit (CD) accounts.

Treasury Management Services

Horizon Bancorp offers treasury management services, including cash management, wire transfer, and account reconciliation services, to help businesses manage their cash flow and optimize financial performance.

Wealth Management Services

Horizon Bancorp offers wealth management services, including investment management, trust services, and retirement planning, to help individuals and businesses achieve their long-term financial goals.

8. Horizon Bancorp, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Horizon Bancorp, Inc. operates in a highly competitive industry, but the threat of substitutes is mitigated by the complexity and specialization of banking services.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Horizon Bancorp, Inc. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's products and services are often tailored to specific customer needs, making it difficult for customers to switch to competitors.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Horizon Bancorp, Inc. is a significant player in the banking industry, which gives it bargaining power over its suppliers. The company's suppliers are often smaller and more dependent on Horizon Bancorp, Inc. for business, reducing their bargaining power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The banking industry has significant barriers to entry, including regulatory hurdles and high capital requirements. This makes it difficult for new entrants to compete with established players like Horizon Bancorp, Inc.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The banking industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share. Horizon Bancorp, Inc. faces intense competition from larger banks and fintech companies, which can erode its market share and profitability.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 67.10%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 32.90%
Equity Cost 9.07%
WACC 5.63%
Leverage 203.93%

11. Quality Control: Horizon Bancorp, Inc. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
SmartFinancial

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Horizon Bancorp

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
First Bank

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 6.8

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
NSTS Bancorp

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Live Oak Bancshares

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 8.3

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Cambridge Bank

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 2.4

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

17.29$

Current Price

17.29$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows