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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

ICF International, Inc.provides management, marketing, technology, and policy consulting and implementation services to government and commercial clients in the United States and internationally.It researches critical policy, industry, stakeholder issues, trends, and behaviors; measures and evaluates results and their impact; and provides strategic planning and advisory services to its clients on how to navigate societal, market, business, communication, and technology challenges.


The company also identifies, defines, and implements policies, plans, programs, and business tools through a range of standard and customized methodologies for its clients; conducts survey research; collects and analyzes various data to understand critical issues and options for its clients; and provides actionable business intelligence, as well as information and data management solutions that allow integrated and purpose-driven data usage.In addition, it provides solutions to optimize the customer and citizen experience; modernizes IT systems; and cyber security solutions that support the range of cyber security missions and protect IT infrastructures in the face of relentless threats, as well as designs, develops, and implements technology systems and business tools that are principal to its clients' mission or business performance.Further, the company informs and engages its clients' constituents, customers, and employees through public relations, branding and marketing, multichannel and strategic communications, and reputation issues management.


It serves energy, environment, and infrastructure; health, education, and social programs; safety and security; and consumer and financial markets.The company was formerly known as ICF Consulting Group Holdings, LLC and changed its name to ICF International, Inc.in 2006.


ICF International, Inc.was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Fairfax, Virginia.

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1.b. Last Insights on ICFI

ICF International's recent performance was negatively impacted by weaker-than-expected Q3 2025 results, with earnings and revenues declining year-over-year and missing estimates. The company's federal contracts continue to decline, and a prolonged government shutdown poses headwinds. Although commercial revenue grew 20.9% year-over-year, particularly in electrification services for data centers, it is insufficient to offset federal contract losses. Additionally, the company announced the retirement of its CFO and introduced new executive leadership roles, which may lead to future strategic changes.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. ICF's Q3 2025 Earnings: Mixed Results Amidst Government Shutdown

ICF reported revenue of $465.4 million, a 10% decline year-over-year, primarily due to a 29.8% drop in federal government revenues. However, the adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 10 basis points to 11.4%. The company's net income was $23.8 million or $1.28 per diluted share, compared to $32.7 million or $1.73 per diluted share in Q3 2024. Non-GAAP EPS was $1.67, slightly below estimates of $1.75. The company's operating cash flow improved to $47.3 million from $25.5 million in Q3 2024.

Publication Date: Nov -03

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Decline Driven by Federal Segment:: Q3 2025 revenue fell 10% to $465.4M YoY, with federal government revenues down 29.8%, while commercial/energy revenue surged 24.3%.
  • EBITDA Margin Expansion:: Adjusted EBITDA margin increased 10 bps to 11.4%, reflecting operational efficiency despite revenue challenges.
  • Strong Contract Growth:: Book-to-bill ratio of 1.53 and $1.8B in year-to-date contract awards, with backlog rising to $3.5B ($180M increase from Q2).
  • Government Shutdown Impact:: Expected $8M revenue and $2.5M gross profit loss in October, with Q4 total impacts of $25M revenue and $7.5M gross profit.
  • Leadership Transition & Growth Focus:: CFO Barry Broadus retiring; James Morgan (COO) to succeed, prioritizing energy and international markets with 2026 double-digit growth targets.

Contract Awards and Backlog

ICF's contract awards surpassed year-ago levels, with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.53, and the company's year-to-date contract awards totaled $1.8 billion. The backlog stood at $3.5 billion, up $180 million from the second quarter. According to the company, they feel good about translating contract wins into revenue quickly, with a pipeline of candidates to support growth.

Guidance and Outlook

The company expects a year-on-year percentage decline in revenues and non-GAAP EPS in Q4 similar to Q3, assuming a government shutdown impact of approximately $8 million in revenue and $2.5 million of gross profit for the month of October. ICF revised its cash flow guidance to $125-150 million and expects a fully diluted weighted average share count of approximately 18.6 million. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 2.6%.

Valuation

ICF's current valuation metrics are as follows: P/E Ratio at 14.97, P/S Ratio at 0.77, and EV/EBITDA at 10.45. The company's ROE is 9.94%, and ROIC is 7.19%. With a Net Debt / EBITDA ratio of 3.09, ICF prioritizes paying down debt, expecting to end the year with a leverage position below 2x, providing capacity for future investments.

Business Growth Prospects

The commercial energy business is experiencing strong growth, particularly in utility program implementation, energy efficiency, and electrification. ICF expects double-digit growth in its energy advisory business in 2026. The company is investing in key growth markets, including recruiting new talent and leveraging AI to drive growth. M&A remains a key component of their strategy, with a focus on energy, state and local markets, and asset management.

Leadership Changes

ICF is making changes to its leadership, with James Morgan taking on the role of CFO, and Anne Choate becoming President of ICF in early 2026. These changes are expected to drive growth and strategy, and the company is pleased with its bench strength and ability to provide opportunities for career growth.

3. NewsRoom

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ICF to Present at the Sidoti Year End Virtual Investor Conference

Dec -03

Source: prnewswire.com

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Bank of New York Mellon Corp Acquires 3,906 Shares of ICF International, Inc. $ICFI

Nov -22

Source: defenseworld.net

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Campbell & CO Investment Adviser LLC Trims Stock Holdings in ICF International, Inc. $ICFI

Nov -17

Source: defenseworld.net

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ICF International Stock Declines 5.6% Since Q3 Earnings Miss

Nov -05

Source: zacks.com

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ICF International: Revising The Thesis On Tightened Guidance

Nov -05

Source: seekingalpha.com

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ICF (ICFI) Reports Q3 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say

Oct -31

Source: zacks.com

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ICF International, Inc. (ICFI) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Oct -31

Source: seekingalpha.com

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ICF International (ICFI) Lags Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

Oct -30

Source: zacks.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.75%)

6. Segments

Health and Social Programs

Expected Growth: 5.5%

ICF International, Inc.'s Health and Social Programs segment growth of 5.5% is driven by increasing government spending on healthcare and social services, rising demand for healthcare consulting services, and expansion into new markets. Additionally, the company's expertise in areas such as Medicaid, Medicare, and the Affordable Care Act is contributing to its growth.

Energy, Environment, Infrastructure and Disaster Recovery

Expected Growth: 5.8%

ICF International, Inc.'s 5.8% growth driven by increasing demand for energy efficiency and renewable energy solutions, growing concerns over climate change and environmental sustainability, investments in infrastructure development and modernization, and rising need for disaster recovery and resilience planning.

Security and Other Civilian & Commercial

Expected Growth: 6.2%

ICF International's Security and Other Civilian & Commercial segment growth of 6.2% is driven by increasing government spending on cybersecurity, disaster response, and energy efficiency initiatives. Additionally, growing demand for digital transformation services, environmental consulting, and public health programs also contribute to the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Advisory and Implementation Services

ICF provides advisory and implementation services to help clients navigate complex policy, program, and project challenges.

Digital Transformation Services

ICF offers digital transformation services to help clients modernize their operations, improve customer experience, and increase efficiency.

Survey Research and Analytics

ICF provides survey research and analytics services to help clients gather insights, measure program effectiveness, and inform policy decisions.

IT and Cloud Services

ICF offers IT and cloud services to help clients modernize their infrastructure, improve cybersecurity, and enhance operational efficiency.

Environmental and Infrastructure Services

ICF provides environmental and infrastructure services to help clients navigate complex environmental regulations, permitting, and project development.

Communications and Engagement Services

ICF offers communications and engagement services to help clients develop effective messaging, build stakeholder support, and promote behavior change.

8. ICF International, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for ICF International, Inc. is moderate due to the presence of alternative consulting services and technology solutions.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low for ICF International, Inc. as the company provides specialized services and solutions that are difficult to substitute.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is moderate for ICF International, Inc. as the company relies on a diverse range of suppliers for its operations.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is high for ICF International, Inc. due to the relatively low barriers to entry in the consulting and technology services industry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high for ICF International, Inc. due to the presence of several established players in the consulting and technology services industry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 33.07%
Debt Cost 5.95%
Equity Weight 66.93%
Equity Cost 7.00%
WACC 6.65%
Leverage 49.41%

11. Quality Control: ICF International, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Booz Allen Hamilton

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 5.2

Growth: 7.7

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Worthington Industries

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 3.6

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 6.0

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Exponent

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 1.0

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 8.2

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 8.3

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ICF International

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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FTI Consulting

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 3.4

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 8.7

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TransUnion

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 2.6

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

85.06$

Current Price

85.06$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows