Intel Corporation (INTC) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Intel Corporation engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of computer products and technologies worldwide.The company operates through CCG, DCG, IOTG, Mobileye, NSG, PSG, and All Other segments.It offers platform products, such as central processing units and chipsets, and system-on-chip and multichip packages; and non-platform or adjacent products, including accelerators, boards and systems, connectivity products, graphics, and memory and storage products.

The company also provides high-performance compute solutions for targeted verticals and embedded applications for retail, industrial, and healthcare markets; and solutions for assisted and autonomous driving comprising compute platforms, computer vision and machine learning-based sensing, mapping and localization, driving policy, and active sensors.In addition, it offers workload-optimized platforms and related products for cloud service providers, enterprise and government, and communications service providers.The company serves original equipment manufacturers, original design manufacturers, and cloud service providers.

Intel Corporation has a strategic partnership with MILA to develop and apply advances in artificial intelligence methods for enhancing the search in the space of drugs.The company was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on INTC

Breaking News: Intel Corporation faces challenges despite a 24% rally in three months. Supply constraints, foundry losses, and rising competition cloud its outlook. The company is reportedly being considered by a tech giant to build custom chips. Intel's CFO recently purchased shares. In comparisons with AMD, Intel outperforms in CPU performance for desktop and notebook computers but lags in server performance. AMD's diversified portfolio and market share gains contrast with Intel's concentrated strategy. No recent earnings release data is available. Analysts have mixed views with some seeing potential and others concerns.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	48.81
Change Percentage	5.04%
Open	45.63
Previous Close	46.47
Market Cap ( Millions)	243806
Volume	100195666
Year High	54.6
Year Low	17.67
M A 50	41.01
M A 200	29.81

FCF Yield	-2.13%
Dividend Yield	0.00%
ROE	-0.26%
Debt / Equity	40.76%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	288.86%
Price To Book	1.97
Price Earnings Ratio	-845.16
Price To FCF	-46.9
Price To sales	4.39
EV / EBITDA	23.63

2. Intel's Q4 2025 Earnings: A Strong Finish to a Challenging Year

Intel Corporation reported Q4 2025 revenue of $13.7 billion, at the high end of guidance, with strong growth across all businesses driven by AI infrastructure build-out. Non-GAAP gross margin was 37.9%, ahead of guidance, and non-GAAP EPS was $0.15, versus guidance of $0.08. The company's operating cash flow was $4.3 billion, with gross CapEx of $4 billion, and positive adjusted free cash flow of $2.2 billion. For the full year 2025, revenue was $52.9 billion, down slightly year-over-year due to supply constraints. Full-year non-GAAP gross margin was 36.7%, up 70 basis points, and full-year non-GAAP EPS was $0.42, up $0.55 year-over-year.

Publication Date: Feb -02

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Q4 Revenue Surpasses Guidance:
                                                Intel reported Q4 revenue of $13.7 billion, exceeding guidance with strong growth in AI infrastructure, driven by DCAI revenue of $4.7 billion (+15% QoQ) and $1.2 billion in custom ASICs (50% YoY growth).
Margin Expansion and EPS Outperformance:
                                                Non-GAAP gross margin hit 37.9% (ahead of guidance) with non-GAAP EPS of $0.15 (vs. guidance of $0.08), while full-year non-GAAP gross margin improved 70 bps to 36.7% despite supply constraints.
Strong Free Cash Flow and CapEx:
                                                Q4 adjusted free cash flow reached $2.2 billion, with $4.3 billion in operating cash flow and $4 billion in CapEx, reflecting disciplined capital allocation amid a $11.6 billion inventory position.
2026 Outlook: Supply Improvements and Foundry Growth:
                                                Intel forecasts Q1 revenue of $12.2 billion (midpoint) with breakeven non-GAAP EPS, and expects 2026 factory network improvements to boost supply, with Foundry revenue up double digits QoQ.
14A Process Timeline and Foundry Ambitions:
                                                The Intel 14A process is scheduled for risk production in 2027 and volume production in 2028, with $1 billion in external Foundry revenue targeted as a success benchmark for the U.S. foundry expansion.

                                

Segment Performance

Intel Products' Q4 revenue was $12.9 billion, up 2% sequentially, with CCG revenue down 4% and DCAI up 15%. CCG revenue was $8.2 billion, and DCAI revenue was $4.7 billion, with custom ASIC business growing more than 50% in 2025. Intel Foundry delivered revenue of $4.5 billion, up 6.4% sequentially, and operating loss was $2.5 billion.

Guidance and Outlook

Guidance for Q1 is $11.7 billion to $12.7 billion, with a midpoint of $12.2 billion, reflecting a lower end of seasonal Q1. At the midpoint, Intel forecast a gross margin of approximately 34.5% with a tax rate of 11% and breakeven EPS, all on a non-GAAP basis. For 2026, Intel expects factory network to improve available supply beginning in Q2, and targets operating expenses of $16 billion.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 7.3%. Intel's current valuation metrics, including a P/E Ratio of -845.16, P/B Ratio of 1.97, and P/S Ratio of 4.39, suggest that the market is pricing in significant challenges. However, the company's efforts to capture growth opportunities in AI-driven computing, strengthen its client franchise, and advance its data center and foundry strategies may drive future growth. The actual EPS of $0.15 beat estimates of $0.08136, indicating a positive surprise.

Challenges and Opportunities

Intel faces challenges, including supply constraints and rising component pricing, which could limit revenue opportunity this year. However, the company sees robust demand for its CPUs, particularly in the server market, and expects a strong year of growth for DCAI. Intel's custom ASIC business is also seeing robust demand, with a $1 billion run rate and a $100 billion TAM market opportunity.

3. NewsRoom

SoftBank subsidiary to work with Intel on next-gen memory for AI

03:17

Source: cnbc.com

Why Intel Stock Jumped Today

00:50

Source: fool.com

Intel Rises 24% in Three Months: Should You Buy the Stock?

Feb -02

Source: zacks.com

Forget Intel: This Smartphone and Auto Chip Giant Is Quietly Building the Better Long‑Term AI Story

Feb -02

Source: fool.com

INTC, NVDA and AMD Forecast – US Tech Giants Sluggish Early

Feb -02

Source: fxempire.com

Intel's 18A Inflection

Feb -02

Source: seekingalpha.com

AMD Vs. Intel: AMD Takes The Lead In 2026

Feb -02

Source: seekingalpha.com

Apple Admitted Something on Its Earnings Call That Intel Investors Need to Hear

Feb -01

Source: fool.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (13.42%)

6. Segments

Client Computing Group (CCG)

Expected Growth: 7.5%

Increasing demand for high-performance computing, artificial intelligence, and IoT devices drive growth in Client Computing Group’s CPU, chipset, and motherboard sales.

Intel Foundry Services

Expected Growth: 12.5%

Intel Foundry Services' customized semiconductor manufacturing services will drive growth, fueled by increasing demand for advanced chips and Intel's commitment to capacity expansion and technology advancements.

Data Center and AI

Expected Growth: 20.0%

Growing demand for AI, autonomous driving, and emerging technologies drive Intel's Data Center and AI segment growth, fueled by increasing adoption in industries such as healthcare, finance, and retail.

Network and Edge

Expected Growth: 14.2%

Intel's Network and Edge segment is poised for growth driven by increasing demand for 5G infrastructure, edge computing, and artificial intelligence, as well as the company's strategic investments in these areas.

All Other

Expected Growth: 4.3%

Increasing demand for Internet of Things, autonomous driving, and artificial intelligence solutions drive growth in Intel's All Other segment, which includes non-reportable operating segments.

Intersegment eliminations

Expected Growth: 5.2%

Intel's elimination of intersegment revenue and expense transactions enhances transparency, enabling better resource allocation and driving growth, fueled by increasing demand for cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and 5G networks.

7. Detailed Products

Central Processing Units (CPUs)

Microprocessors that execute most instructions that a computer program requires, controlling the other components of the system.

Motherboards

Main circuit boards that connect and support various components of a computer system.

Memory and Storage

Products that provide temporary or permanent data storage, including DRAM, NAND flash, and Optane memory.

Internet of Things (IoT) Devices

Specialized computing systems for various applications, such as industrial automation, retail, and transportation.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Deep Learning

Hardware and software solutions for machine learning, computer vision, and natural language processing.

5G Modems

Modems that enable high-speed, low-latency wireless connectivity for mobile devices and IoT applications.

FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array) Chips

Programmable integrated circuits for custom computing, data center acceleration, and edge computing.

Ethernet Controllers and Adapters

Components that enable high-speed networking and connectivity in data centers, servers, and IoT devices.

8. Intel Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Intel's products are highly specialized and customized, making it difficult for substitutes to emerge.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

While customers have some bargaining power due to the availability of alternative products, Intel's strong brand and high-quality products limit their negotiating power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Intel has a diverse supplier base, and its large scale of operations gives it significant bargaining power over its suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The high barriers to entry in the semiconductor industry, including significant capital expenditures and technological expertise, make it difficult for new entrants to compete with Intel.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The semiconductor industry is highly competitive, with Intel facing intense rivalry from companies like AMD, NVIDIA, and Qualcomm.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	31.82%
Debt Cost	3.95%
Equity Weight	68.18%
Equity Cost	9.40%
WACC	7.66%
Leverage	46.67%

11. Quality Control: Intel Corporation passed 2 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Inefficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Analog Devices

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 1.0

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

AMD

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 0.2

Growth: 6.8

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

GLOBALFOUNDRIES

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Intel

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 4.5

Growth: 1.2

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Marvell Technology

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 2.0

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 7.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

ON Semiconductor

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 2.7

Growth: 6.9

Quality: 5.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

39.33%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

7.66%

Intel Corporation - US4581401001

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on INTC

1.c. Company Highlights

Lower Growth

Higher Yield

Medium Volatility

Earnings Beats

Average Quality

Earnings Miss

Weak Momentum

Revenues Beats

Lower Quality

Cheaper

Average Yield

Stable Momentum

Fairly Valued

Strong Momentum

2. Intel's Q4 2025 Earnings: A Strong Finish to a Challenging Year

Segment Performance

Guidance and Outlook

Valuation and Growth Prospects

Challenges and Opportunities

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (13.42%)

6. Segments

Client Computing Group (CCG)

Expected Growth: 7.5%

Intel Foundry Services

Expected Growth: 12.5%

Data Center and AI

Expected Growth: 20.0%

Network and Edge

Expected Growth: 14.2%

All Other

Expected Growth: 4.3%

Intersegment eliminations

Expected Growth: 5.2%

7. Detailed Products

Central Processing Units (CPUs)

Motherboards

Memory and Storage

Internet of Things (IoT) Devices

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Deep Learning

5G Modems

FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array) Chips

Ethernet Controllers and Adapters

8. Intel Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Intel Corporation passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA