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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, and markets human pharmaceuticals worldwide.It offers Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, and Humulin U-500 for diabetes; and Jardiance, Trajenta, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes.The company provides Alimta for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and malignant pleural mesothelioma; Cyramza for metastatic gastric cancer, gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma, metastatic NSCLC, metastatic colorectal cancer, and hepatocellular carcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal cancers, and various head and neck cancers; Retevmo for metastatic NSCLC, medullary thyroid cancer, and thyroid cancer; Tyvyt for relapsed or refractory classic Hodgkin's lymph and non-squamous NSCLC; and Verzenio for HR+, HER2- metastatic breast cancer, node positive, and early breast cancer.


It offers Olumiant for rheumatoid arthritis; and Taltz for plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and non-radiographic axial spondylarthritis.The company offers Cymbalta for depressive disorder, diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain, generalized anxiety disorder, fibromyalgia, and chronic musculoskeletal pain; Emgality for migraine prevention and episodic cluster headache; and Zyprexa for schizophrenia, bipolar I disorder, and bipolar maintenance.Its Bamlanivimab and etesevimab, and Bebtelovimab for COVID-19; Cialis for erectile dysfunction and benign prostatic hyperplasia; and Forteo for osteoporosis.


The company has collaborations with Incyte Corporation; Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; AbCellera Biologics Inc.; Junshi Biosciences; Regor Therapeutics Group; Lycia Therapeutics, Inc.; Kumquat Biosciences Inc.; Entos Pharmaceuticals Inc.; and Foghorn Therapeutics Inc.Eli Lilly and Company was founded in 1876 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.

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1.b. Last Insights on LLY

Eli Lilly's recent performance was driven by robust Q3 2025 results, with a 54% year-over-year revenue jump and a 19% EPS beat. The company's strengthened drug pipeline, particularly the Phase III success of orforglipron, de-risks future earnings. Government insurance programs covering weight-loss drugs are a significant win. A potential agreement with the US government on tariffs could impact earnings. The company's diversified business mix and proactive US manufacturing investments position it well for regulatory developments. (Source: Q3 earnings report)

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Eli Lilly's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance Driven by Key Products

Eli Lilly's Q3 2025 financial performance was impressive, with revenue reaching $12 billion, representing a 54% increase compared to the same period last year. The company's gross margin as a percentage of revenue stood at 83.6%, while the non-GAAP performance margin was 48.3%. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $7.02, significantly higher than analyst estimates of $5.69, and included $0.71 of acquired IPR&D charges. The company's strong financial performance was driven by its key products, including Mounjaro and Zepbound, which saw significant growth in prescriptions and sales.

Publication Date: Nov -01

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth Surge: Q3 2025 revenue hit $12 billion, up 54% YoY, with key product revenue doubling.
  • Zepbound & Mounjaro Momentum: Zepbound prescriptions tripled YoY; Mounjaro U.S. prescriptions rose over 60% and grew internationally in China, Brazil, and India.
  • Forglipron Trial Success: Orforglipron showed 10.5% weight loss at 36mg in Phase III (ATTAIN-2), outperforming competitors in glycemic and weight control.
  • Financial Strength: Gross margin reached 83.6%, non-GAAP performance margin 48.3%, and EPS rose to $7.02, including $0.71 IPR&D charges.
  • Full-Year Guidance Raised: Revenue forecasted at $63–$63.5 billion; non-GAAP EPS guidance set at $23–$23.70, reflecting strong market share gains and pipeline progress.

Key Product Performance

The company's key products continued to drive growth, with Mounjaro posting robust sales in the U.S. and internationally, and Zepbound prescriptions tripling in Q3 2025 compared to the same period last year. Kisunla total prescriptions grew by 50% compared to Q2 2025. The company's strong performance in the incretin analogs market, where it has gained market share for the fifth consecutive quarter in the U.S., was a significant contributor to its revenue growth.

R&D Highlights and Pipeline Progress

Eli Lilly made significant progress in its R&D pipeline, with positive results from several Phase III trials for orforglipron, including ATTAIN-2, which demonstrated significant weight loss and glycemic control benefits. The company also initiated a Phase III study for muvalaplin and submitted its once-weekly insulin called insulin efsitora alfa in the U.S. for treatment of type 2 diabetes. The company's pipeline progress is expected to drive future growth and expand its presence in various therapeutic areas, including obesity, diabetes, and Alzheimer's disease.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/E Ratio of 56.14 and an expected revenue growth rate of 18.6% next year, Eli Lilly's valuation appears to be pricing in significant growth expectations. The company's ROE of 88.36% and ROIC of 27.7% indicate strong profitability. As the company continues to innovate and expand its pipeline, its growth prospects appear promising. The company's commitment to its Alzheimer's program and its potential to expand the market with orforglipron are expected to drive future growth.

Guidance and Outlook

Eli Lilly raised its revenue and EPS guidance, now anticipating full-year revenue between $63 billion and $63.5 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $23 to $23.70. The company's guidance reflects its confidence in its growth prospects and its ability to continue delivering strong financial performance. As the company looks ahead, its focus on innovation, R&D, and commercial execution is expected to drive continued growth and success.

3. NewsRoom

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Market Today: WBD Sale Bids, Meta Cuts, Apple Shake-Up

Dec -04

Source: gurufocus.com

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3 Large Drug Stocks to Watch as the Industry Shows Some Recovery

Dec -04

Source: zacks.com

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Companies Cut Prices For Blockbuster Weight-Loss Drugs

Dec -03

Source: forbes.com

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1 Reason to Buy Eli Lilly Hand Over Fist Before the New Year

Dec -03

Source: fool.com

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U.S. FDA approves expanded indication for Lilly's Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib), the first and only non-covalent (reversible) BTK inhibitor, for adults with relapsed or refractory CLL/SLL previously treated with a covalent BTK inhibitor

Dec -03

Source: prnewswire.com

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GXP-Storage Appoints Former Eli Lilly Global Clinical Research Executive Chris Otto to Board of Directors

Dec -03

Source: businesswire.com

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2 Trillion-Dollar Dividend Stocks to Buy and Hold for 10 Years

Dec -03

Source: fool.com

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Market Today: Deal Talks, Retail Wins, AI Chips, and Crypto Volatility

Dec -02

Source: gurufocus.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.50%)

6. Segments

Discovery, Dev., Manufacturing, Marketing, and Sales of Pharmaceutical Products

Expected Growth: 8.5%

Eli Lilly's pharmaceutical products development and sales are driven by increasing demand for diabetes and oncology treatments, strategic M&A, and a strong pipeline of innovative products

7. Detailed Products

Humulin

Humulin is a brand of insulin medication used to treat diabetes. It is a human insulin analog that helps to regulate blood sugar levels.

Alimta

Alimta is a chemotherapy medication used to treat malignant pleural mesothelioma and non-small cell lung cancer.

Cymbalta

Cymbalta is a selective serotonin and norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor (SSNRI) used to treat depression, anxiety, and chronic pain.

Forteo

Forteo is a parathyroid hormone used to treat osteoporosis in postmenopausal women and men.

Humalog

Humalog is a fast-acting insulin analog used to treat diabetes.

Jardiance

Jardiance is a sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitor used to treat type 2 diabetes.

Olumiant

Olumiant is a Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitor used to treat rheumatoid arthritis.

Portrazza

Portrazza is a monoclonal antibody used to treat non-small cell lung cancer.

Reyvow

Reyvow is a serotonin receptor agonist used to treat acute migraine.

Trulicity

Trulicity is a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist used to treat type 2 diabetes.

Verzenio

Verzenio is a cyclin-dependent kinase (CDK) 4/6 inhibitor used to treat breast cancer.

8. Eli Lilly and Company's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Eli Lilly and Company faces moderate threat from substitutes due to the presence of alternative treatments and generic drugs in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low due to the lack of price sensitivity and the importance of patented drugs in the treatment of chronic diseases.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is moderate due to the presence of multiple suppliers of raw materials and the company's ability to negotiate prices.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry, including the need for significant investments in research and development and regulatory approvals.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the presence of established players in the pharmaceutical industry, leading to intense competition for market share and pricing pressure.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 70.08%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 29.92%
Equity Cost 5.80%
WACC 4.50%
Leverage 234.18%

11. Quality Control: Eli Lilly and Company passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Gilead Sciences

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 3.3

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 8.6

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 8.3

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Pfizer

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 6.1

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 6.7

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Merck

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 7.8

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Bristol-Myers Squibb

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Amgen

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 2.9

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 6.8

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Lilly

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 2.0

Growth: 7.2

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

1010.31$

Current Price

1010.31$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows